Alwaght- Since late May 2014 that the presidency term of the President Michel Suleiman expired the Lebanese parliament has failed to hold meetings to choose next president for the country. The parliament every time cancelled the scheduled session due to lack of quorum. In fact, so far only one session was held for this end and Samir Geagea, the executive chairman of the Lebanese forces, was nominated by the March 14 Alliance for the post but faced a blank vote from March 8 Alliance, an opposite parliamentary bloc, and even his fellow party members refrained from supporting him. All of the other scheduled 44 sessions were cancelled for the absence of enough lawmakers and so failing to meet the threshold.
This comes while during this time the March 8 Alliance has nominated Michel Aoun for the presidential post. However, the intrinsic rifts in March 14 Alliance have prevented any practical progress to pick one as president. Disappointment with the March 14 bloc and particularly the Future Movement led by Saad Hariri who advocated Suleiman Franjieh, the Lebanese Christian politician and leader of Marada Movement, for the presidency pushed Samir Geagea to, for some time, announce his backing for candidacy of Michel Aoun from the opposite party.
Now and after two years, a development took place to help pick president for the country and so fill the political vacuum: The leader of Future Movement in a blatant shift has said that he will back Michel Aoun's candidacy for the post, a standing that restored hopes for putting an end to the Lebanon's presidency limbo.
Hariri's change of position is specifically important because earlier he staunchly opposed Aoun’s taking post of president. But this political U-turn has given rise to some speculations about an array of scenarios on the president picking process. The sources close to Hariri have maintained that he will not drop support for Franjieh unless Franjieh himself wants to leave bid for the post in favor of another candidate. At the same time, many news outlets suggested that Suleiman Franjieh has no intention to withdraw nomination in favor of Aoun.
The analysts say that Hariri’s advocacy for Michel Aoun comes in a bid to influence standings of March 8 Alliance, as when Geagea supported nomination of Aoun for the post, some segments of the March 8 bristled at the backing and left once-held interest in Aoun’s candidacy.
Meanwhile, Samir Geagea claims that Hariri’s stance and his moving towards Aoun is an effort to put strains on Hezbollah and so leave no way but choosing the president with company from all of the Lebanese groups and parties. Furthermore, some figures in March 8 Alliance believe that this move by the leader of Future Movement is an attempt by him to retake the prime minister post.
Meanwhile, some attribute Hariri’s sudden shift to his frustration with the Saudi Arabian backing, especially that he returned home empty-handed from a visit to Riyadh to draw support from his regional backers. The reports suggest that the due to problems that hit the Saudi Oger, a big holding company founded in Saudi Arabia by the Saad Hariri’s father Rafik Hariri and has been under management of Hariri family, the Saudi officials particularly Mohammad bin Salman, the Saudi deputy crown prince and son of the king, have declined to welcome Saad Hariri .
Reportedly, Hariri sought to convince Mohammad bin Salman to pay the debts of the company and in return give him part of the company’s stakes, but bin Salman demanded the company in its entirety. As a result, Hariri saw the only solution in pushing ahead Lebanon’s presidency case because the kingdom has hand in delayed president choosing.
It is noteworthy that Saad Hariri has the backing of Saudi Arabia. In terms of the neighboring Syria crisis, he backed overthrowing the Syrian government and removal of President Bashar al-Assad, a stance in full accord with the Saudi Arabian position on the Syrian president. Hariri took this anti-Syrian stance so that upon fall of Damascus government he takes the initiative of the political cases in Lebanon and so imposes his conditions on Hezbollah and its allies. But resistance of the Russian-backed Syrian government has pushed him to resort to choices not favorable to him.
