Alwaght- As during the 12-day Israeli war on Iran in June the troika of leadership, people, and powerful armed forces slapped the Israeli enemy hard in the face and shattered its plot to bring Iran to its knees using military force, in recent days a scenario designed by foreign intelligence agencies to destabilize Iran and make it another Syria met its failure fast thanks to the vigilance of the Iranians who took to the streets across the country to condemn acts of violence and terrorism funded and equipped by foreign actors, helping security forces nip in the bud blind terror actions that could further follow.
In this phase of economic warfare by the West, the focus was on destabilization of the forex market in Iran to cause public discontentment and subsequently develop into riots while people were rightfully protesting the worsening economic conditions. Next stages of the plan were killing people and damaging infrastructure to deal a blow to the Islamic Republic. All these plans were a sequel to the 12-day war and this was clear to and expected by Iranian officials, political observers, and the Iranian nation.
But after neutralizing a large part of the nuclei of leaders of the riots inside Iran who are under support of CIA and Mossad, and as people separated their ways from the terrorists, the political stances of Washington and Tel Aviv leaders contained threats of other anti-Iranian actions, including military action against Tehran in the coming weeks and months by the US and Israeli regime as the latter see their project to inflame a civil war in Iran failed.
Last week, Trump in remarks obviously meant to encourage riots and armed actions against the Iranian security, military, and political sites and figures and ordinary people had threatened that the US was ready for action against Iran if the Iranian government killed what he described “ordinary people and protesters.”
Although Trump withdrew his claims later and said that the victims of the riots, who were mainly security forces ordinary people killed by terrorists, died under feet of the crowds, the Iranian officials asserted the armed forces’ readiness to deal with any scenario. In this connection, after Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf advised Trump not to be fooled by his circle who are persuading him to take actions against Iran, on Monday Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, saying that “we are ready for all options” held: “We hope a wise option [by Trump] is chosen. In our eyes, it is unimportant what option is picked. We are ready for war, for diplomacy and for economic [war] options.”
Large scale attacks on US military bases in the region: Scenario of death of thousands of troops
One of the top scenarios of Iranian reaction is a resolute response to any American actions, targeting the US interests in West Asia, especially its military bases.
The US operates tens of military bases around Iran that are home to tens of thousands of troops with light and heavy equipment including various radar systems, aircraft, and warships, all potential targets to Iranian retaliation. These bases with their facilities are fully within range of the Iranian missiles, drones, and other offensive Iranian weapons. In recent years, Tehran has shown that nothing can block its attacks on the US military bases with precise and destructive Iranian missile strikes if Tehran’s leaders decide to deal a blow to Washington. Powerful attacks on Ein Al-Assad military base in Iraq that hosts American troops in 2020 following assassination of General Qassem Suleimani and also strikes at Al-Udaid air base, as the US’s most important overseas strategic military asset, bore witness to the Iranian armed forces’ capability to precisely execute anti-American actions when the need arises.
Furthermore, just unlike in the 12-day war that Iran asked for no help from regional resistance factions and even turned down offers by them to engage in the war against the Israeli regime which could risk sinking the whole region in a state war and chaos as Tel Aviv wished, this time direct US involvement in a military confrontation will certainly justify mobilization of the resistance factions across the region to spontaneously attack American bases and interests. In this regard, Hezbollah Brigades of Iraq on Monday announced full support to the Islamic Republic in the face of any potential American military action, warning the US government that starting another war on Iran will not be easy “and will turn into a hell” that will lead to defeat of the US and destruction of its interests.
Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, issuing an official statement, said that “the Axis of Resistance stands by the Islamic Republic of Iran in the face of any potential aggression.”
So, the first factor Trump should prepare for is facing hundreds of thousands of dead bodies of the US troops. This is against his approach about avoiding long-term, costly wars with high casualties which was his election campaign promise to his support base MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement. Actually, such human and material costs will sink the Trump administration in an enormous challenge.
Attacks on depth of Israel
Certainly, if Washington attacks Tehran, the Axis of Resistance will not separate Israel from the US in this decisive and existential battle. Actually what the damage inflicted on Israeli regime by Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Storm in October 7, 2023, can be doubled with relentless missile and drone attacks by all branches of Residence camp. Meanwhile, new and surprising scenarios like ground attacks on the Israeli regime can be supplementary and uproot this occupational criminal regime from the region.
Torching the region and unleashing economic tsunami
Given the Iranian responses to Trump’s new threats, the fire of crisis will certainly not restricted to a specific part of the region and could expand, and indeed its top fallouts can be endangerment of the trade and energy routes in the Persian Gulf. The warnings of Qalibaf at Tehran rallies on Monday were clear in this regard: “Come to see what disaster will happen to the American bases, ships, and forces. Come to be burnt with the fire of the defenders of Iran to be a permanent lesson to the oppressive history of America. We will teach these cruel rulers. Come to see when the region is torched how the consequences will be heavy.”
This scenario can lead to skyrocketing oil prices and supply crisis and so batter the world, and on top of it the American, economy. The US invasion of Venezuela, abduction of its President Nicolas Maduro, and the open declaration that the US will take control of Venezuelan oil can suggest that the White House feels alarmed about an upcoming oil crisis and perhaps it seeks the solution in Venezuela. But this prescription, for sure, cannot compensate the tens of millions of oil barrels in deficit caused by a potential war against Iran. Therefore, as many agree, securing a fast and low-cost victory in a war against Iran is a pipe dream.
