Alwaght- On the eve of the third year of Gaza war and despite Israel having so far massacred tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians, Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Storm on October 7, 2023 remains a turning point in the Israeli security history as it managed to inflict on Tel Aviv the biggest intelligence loss in its history.
Analyses by Israeli think tanks published after the war all highlight this point that the Israeli claims of intelligence superiority at least on the day of the Hamas operation were disconnected from the field reality. The underestimation of the opposite side and sole reliance on the technical tools instead of field analysis all made the reasons for a failure to predict the attack. The result of this intelligence setback was not only a human and political cost, but also weakening of Tel Aviv’s long-term security credibility.
Contrary to the claims of Tel Aviv officials about intelligence superiority, the Operation Al-Aqsa Storm showed that the Israelis' understanding of external threats is very limited and inadequate. Following this intelligence failure, the Israeli concern about the repetition of similar scenarios has now increased significantly. They no longer see the potential threat only behind the walls of Gaza and the West Bank but also consider an attack from Lebanon, Jordan, and especially from a much greater distance from Yemen to be probable.
Having in mind that the missile and drone attacks from Yemen in support of Palestine have become a daily occurrence, concerns have risen in Tel Aviv's political and security circles. Officials and think tanks of this regime now explicitly acknowledge the serious threat from Yemen and are calling for a review of intelligence systems and deterrence strategies to prevent "another October 7."
For the first time, the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, affiliated with the regime's foreign ministry, sounded the alarm in September 2024, announcing that Yemen's Ansarallah forces had been transferred to Syria and were planning a ground attack on Israel. According to this report, cooperation within the Axis of Resistance has provided Ansar Allah with the possibility to move its forces from a great geographical distance to near the borders of the occupied territories to launch a direct ground attack.
The Israel Hayom newspaper also warned in a report this August that the Israeli army, taking the Yemeni threat seriously, has prepared itself for the scenario of Yemeni fighters infiltrating the occupied territories, a scenario that, with the extensive training of Yemeni forces and regional instability, has peaked Tel Aviv's concerns.
Mosgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy in a report recently published said that Yemeni operations have proven that there is no room for underestimating these threats. The institute mentions the growing increase in the type and extent of the deterrence of the Yemeni armed forces.
Channel 7 of the Zionist regime also quoted an expert from this institute saying: "The Yemenis are locally producing weapons that constantly attack us. The Yemenis are examining our defensive capabilities and are striving to challenge and expand their own abilities to overcome them."
Israel's Channel 12 admitted last month that the Yemenis are very stubborn and robust, and Israel's ability to force them to stop missile attacks is very limited.
Why are Israelis worried about Yemeni attacks?
Such Israeli worries have their roots in the performance of Ansarullah of Yemen in the past two years marked by launch of ballistic missiles and drones against Israel in the resolute support of the Palestinian people. Sana'a asserts these attacks will continue until Gaza war ends.
The persistence of the Yemenis in supporting the Palestinian cause demonstrates their firm political resolve and strong military capabilities. This steadfastness has caused the Israelis to face severe concerns regarding potential threats and possible security consequences.
The military capability of Ansarallah is another factor intensifying the anxiety and fear in Tel Aviv. Over the past decade, this movement, by developing its missile and drone arsenal and utilizing guerrilla warfare experience, has been able to tip the regional scale of power in its favor.
Sana'a's successful experience in confronting the Saudi-Emirati coalition showed that the people of this country never bow to foreign pressure and resist to the death in defense of their ideals and territorial integrity. For this reason, despite widespread American and Israeli regime airstrikes over the past two years, they have not been walked back from their pro-Palestinian standing for a moment. Instead, with serious power and determination, they have carried out their reciprocal strikes on the occupied territories, showing that steadfastness and the spirit of resistance are deep-rooted and solid among them.
Along with tactical skills and the ability to execute complex operations, these military capacities have turned the Yemenis into a potentially dangerous force that even threatens distant targets of the Israeli regime. The landing of Yemen's hypersonic missiles and suicide drones in the heart of the occupied territories has led the regime's strategists to conclude that the threats from Ansarallah must not be overlooked. Negligence in confronting these capabilities could have consequences more disastrous than the October 7 for the occupied territories, highlighting the necessity of addressing defensive gaps and preventive measures.
The intelligence advancements of Ansarallah are also notable. Their ability to track Israeli ships in the Red Sea and target them, alongside thwarting Tel Aviv's attempts to assassinate the leaders of this movement, demonstrates their networking power and high skill in managing threats. This very issue has increased their self-confidence and strengthened Ansarallah's position, while simultaneously ruling Tel Aviv with fear and terror.
Economic and logistical aspects are of great significance to Tel Aviv since trade and supply of basic goods make up the pillars of Israeli economic stability. By dominating the sea routes and carrying out attacks on Israeli ships, Ansarullah have not only disrupted trade of the Israelis, but have also imposed costly damages on the Israeli regime. The scale-down of activity of strategic ports like Eilat, halt of goods transport, and billions in financial damage are clear examples of the direct impacts of the Yemeni attacks on the Israeli economy and logestical security of Tel Aviv that add to Israeli concerns.
Tel Aviv's fear of a ground assault from Yemen is real, and for this reason, it is trying to weaken Ansarallah's power in cooperation with the Washington. The American pressures to close offices and limit this group's influence in Iraq indicate the importance of this threat for Tel Aviv. However, these efforts have not yielded results so far, and insistence on this issue could deliver the reverse.
Just as at the beginning of the Gaza war, thousands of Iraqi resistance forces were ready on Jordan's borders to enter the occupied territories, and this operational capability is still active. Some regional observers believe that with the escalation of tensions and the possibility of the Israeli army targeting the positions of Iraqi groups, launching joint operations by Ansarallah and Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) against the occupied territories, even in a ground form, exists. PMF were founded in 2014 in opposition to the foreign-backed ISIS terrorist organization and led a battle that crushed ISIS.
Ground offensive on Israel a matter of time
Ansarullah's leaders have repeatedly said that they themselves will determine the time and place of confrontation with their Israeli enemy and are prepared for any scenario. Access from the Red Sea route to the south of the occupied territories and the possibility of infiltration through Jordanian soil and even the occupied Golan Heights is a capability that strengthens the possibility of a ground assault. The combination of these operational capabilities with determination and precise planning shows that the rules of engagement can change quickly, and the Yemenis have the ability at any moment to exert direct and complex pressure on Tel Aviv.
Driven by this, in recent months, the Israeli army, worried about the possibility of a ground offensive, has set up new fortifications in the Jordan Valley. These include establishing military barriers, strengthening security centers, and increasing the presence of armed forces, something indicating Tel Aviv's anxiety and preventive measures to maintain the security of the occupied territories against potential threats.
Finally, the exposition of the Israeli intelligence failure on October 7 demonstrated that the cross-border adventure is dangerous for Tel Aviv and now it is more rational to stop the brutal Gaza campaign than to expand war to Yemen perhaps to evade multi-layer operations by Ansarullah. Otherwise, the tree fear of a ground offensive by Yemen, which is exhausting the Israelis, can come to reality and grab the calm from the Israelis.
