Alwaght- As some European countries intend to announce recognition of an independent Palestinian state, Alwaght has discussed the matter with regional affairs expert Ismail Bagheri.
Motivation behind recognition of Palestinian state
Mr Bagheri first shed light on why the West has changed its approach to the Palestinian cause, saying that the reality is that the Western countries are the staunch backers of the Israeli regime, but for some reasons they are opposed to the formation of "Greater Israel" and support the two-state solution.
There is a growing perception in Europe that the United States is primarily focused on its own interests, effectively marginalizing European influence in West Asian affairs. In response, European powers have begun to exert pressure on Israel. For instance, Spain has suspended an economic agreement valued at over 700 million dollars, and other nations are considering similar measures.
A key aspect of this pressure is Europe's advocacy for a two-state solution, which is intended to compel Tel Aviv to change course. However, it is important to note that the two-state solution is widely viewed as effectively non-viable in practice. Consequently, Europe has so far been unsuccessful in curbing Israeli expansionism.
A further critical factor is the pressure from public opinion. Across European countries, there is daily condemnation of the actions of the Israeli regime, with frequent public demonstrations expressing solidarity with the people of Gaza. This has placed Western governments under significant domestic pressure to take a firmer stance.
West's political show regarding Palestinian cause
The Iranian political analyst argues that Europe of not even honest about the two-state solution and backs this solution essentially to eliminate Hamas resistance movement and replace it with the Palestinian Authority led by Mahmoud Abbas who is the puppet of the United States and Israeli regime. All this noise about the recognition of an independent Palestinian state is just a political show and propaganda and they want to pretend that Europe, Britain, and France want an end to thd Gaza war. But in fact the western stances are an attempt to flee the political dead end.
Saudis seeking to blackmail the US
In response to the question regarding the international conference on Palestine held on the sidelines of the United Nations with the joint presidency of France and Saudi Arabia, Mr Bagheri said that this is an important and fundamental question.
Saudi Arabia is caught in a contradiction. On one hand, Riyadh seeks to normalize relations with Israel as part of its Vision 2030 and to establish a strategic bloc against the Axis of Resistance. On the other hand, it sees itself as the leader of the Islamic world and a supporter of the Palestinian cause and cannot completely ignore this role. To some extent, Saudi Arabia has been covertly encouraging Persian Gulf Arab states to normalize relations with the child-killing Israeli regime. Both before and even after the Gaza war, it has paid lip service to supporting Palestine publicly, but behind the scenes, its actions have actually aided the criminal regime. Co-chairing this conference with France represents a clever tactic by Saudi Arabia. By playing this role, Riyadh aims to manage the pressure from domestic and regional public opinion, which opposes normalization without any cost to the Israeli regime. In other words, it wants to show the Arab world that while it pursues its own strategic interests, it has not marginalized the Palestinian issue.
Secondly, this move provides them with stronger leverage and bargaining power in behind-the-scenes negotiations with the United States and the Israeli regime. Saudi Arabia can tell Washington and Tel Aviv that normalization without serious concessions to the Palestinians would be politically very costly for Riyadh and almost impossible.
Riyadh’s push to revive the Arab peace initiative
Emphasizing that Riyadh is also aligned with the West, he added that although Saudi Arabia's Arab Peace Initiative is said to be aimed at reviving and updating the two-state solution, the reality is that Riyadh, like the West, wants to assert itself and position its initiative as the only plan or the only viable option for discussion regarding the Palestinian issue—even while knowing that Tel Aviv and Netanyahu oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state. Riyadh may hope that with a change in the Israeli government or through future international pressure, its proposed framework can be brought back to the table.
An important point to note is that the political situation in the region has changed after the Gaza war. If in the past, normalization between Arab countries and Israel was promoted as an advantage, it has now become a form of leverage. Of course, what might be revived is not the Saudi-led process itself, but the strategic logic behind it, which involves mobilizing an Arab coalition to advance a solution, even if gradually. The success of this strategy is also entirely dependent on the balance of power, international pressure, and political developments within the Israeli regime, and it appears very difficult in the short term with the current Netanyahu government.
Fruitless UN meeting on Gaza: Arab-Western political gesture
Mr Bagheri assessed the recent conference as lacking any practical achievements for the Palestinians, maintaining that it must be said frankly that this conference alone cannot directly and immediately end the crimes of the usurping Israel in Gaza. The main reason is that Israel, with the unconditional support of the US, has so far shown no sign of willingness to stop the war without achieving its goals (the military defeat of Hamas and the release of hostages), and this conference lacks strong executive leverage to force it to do so. In the recent UN Security Council vote, the United States alone used its veto to stand against 14 votes, effectively voting for the continuation of the crimes of the child-killing Israeli regime. Therefore, the main achievement of such conferences is not an immediate change on the ground, but a political and diplomatic advancement. It is about re-legitimizing and globalizing the Palestinian issue at the highest international levels, which results in the further isolation of the Israeli regime. Otherwise, without global public opinion protests, the West and reactionary Arab regimes would have been indifferent, merely watching the massacre of the people of Gaza.
In another part of his remarks, the Iranian political added that returning to the previous reconciliation process (negotiating from a position of weakness and remaining silent in the face of the usurping regime's settlement expansion) would certainly mean trampling on the blood of thousands of Palestinian martyrs, wounded, and missing persons, and the oppressed people of Gaza. However, compromise, meaning negotiations to restore fundamental rights and the withdrawal of Israeli occupying forces, is important. The new process must proceed based on the new realities and the balance of power created by Hamas. Although Hamas appears to be facing the destruction of Gaza and the displacement of its people, the reality is that, with bare hands but with heartfelt faith and belief in divine victory, it has been able to keep a heavily armed enemy, supported by the US and the West, mired in a quagmire for over two years, effectively placing it in a state of stagnation and decline in terms of prestige, economy, and politics. A more important point in this regard is the strong will of Hamas and the people of Gaza to fight and resist the Israeli regime, and so far, despite all shortages, they have not been willing to retreat or submit to the demands of the Israeli enemy.
Recognition of Palestinian state: Strategic damages to Israeli regime
At the end of his comments, Mr Bagheri pointed to the strategic damages of recognition of Palestine to Tel Aviv. The increasing recognition of Palestine and the holding of such international conferences inflict significant strategic damage on the Israeli regime. Its most important harm is the deep de-legitimization of the Israeli project. This process gradually erodes Israel's historical narrative of portraying itself as a fully democratic and lawful state on the international stage, instead placing it in the position of an occupying power.
Politically, these actions also contribute to Israel's diplomatic isolation. Even with the unconditional support of the United States, when major European countries and international actors take such a stance, Israel finds itself in the long term surrounded by a global public opinion that limits the space necessary to continue its current policies.
From a security aspect, the greatest threat to Israel is the international normalization and legitimization of a Palestinian state. Over time, this could pave the way for Israeli officials to be prosecuted in international courts for war crimes, for the atrocities they have committed for over 70 years in the Palestinian territories, and for practically usurping land through settlement construction. It also strengthens the legal foundations for broader international sanctions and economic pressure.
He closed the interview saying that the Israeli crimes over all these years should not go unanswered and the Islamic countries and especially the Axis of Resistance led by Iran and amid the awakening of the public opinion in the East and West should seize the opportunity and put Israeli regime and the United States politically, militarily, and economically. Burning this opportunity will practically ensure the domination of the Israeli regime over the future of the West Asian countries.
