Alwaght- While the US airstrikes on various parts of Yemen and heavy bombardment in recent weeks with over 350 attacks have failed to gain Washington's aims, some sources are talking about possible change of the White House strategy to a ground offensive.
Citing informed sources, Bloomberg reported that Yemeni opponents of Ansarallah, a movement that holds the capital Sana'a and north of Yemen, are in talks with the US and their Persian Gulf Arab allies about a possible ground operation to drive the movement from the Red Sea coast.
Also, the Wall Street Journal reported that Yemeni elements aligned with the UAE are preparing for a large-scale ground attack against Ansarallah forces. According to the report, the attack is taking place in the wake of recent US airstrikes against Yemen. The Wall Street Journal added that UAE operatives in Yemen intend to take control of strategic areas on the west coast, especially the port of Hudaydah, in order to cut off the Ansarullah's important economic artery, according to their plan.
There is no official and precise information about how this ground attack will be carried out, but some sources have made speculations in this regard. It is said that the US intends to use army veterans who have a history of combat missions in this operation and will send them to southern Yemen so that they can train anti-Ansarallah tribal fighters and equip them for a ground offensive.
One option is a large-scale operation by US military forces. According to reports, this operation will initially be carried out with large-scale US airstrikes, with fighter jets bombing the lines of conflict, especially in the west and south of Ma'arib, the Al-Jawf desert, and south of Hudaydah. The main goal of these attacks is stated to be to weaken the Ansarallah defense line on these fronts so that the forces of Aden-based Western and Arab-backed government can advance on these fronts without any particular resistance from the movement.
US challenges in ground operation
Although the US has the power and weapons for a ground offensive on Yemen with assistance from some of its allies, Yemen has proven that it is a big bite for mouth of any foreign power.
As a militia group with experience in urban warfare, Ansarallah has a high ability to resist foreign forces. History has shown that this group is capable of organizing and executing complex military operations that can be challenging to the American forces.
The experience of a decade of fighting against the armed-to-the-teeth Saudi-Emirati coalition has proven that the Yemenis are capable of overwhelming the enemy and inflicting heavy casualties on it. Today's Ansarallah is way different from what it was during the Saudi-led aggression. This movement has made great achievements in the field of weapons in the land, air and sea areas and has not only been able to take control of large parts of Yemen, but has also become a powerful army using advanced weapons and an asymmetric warfare strategy.
On the other hand, resorting to army veterans cannot guide the US to its goals because in the Saudi coalition, American elite soldiers also provided intelligence and logistical support, but in practice, after years, they were unable to defeat Ansarallah, and this time, the previous experience will be repeated for the aggressors.
In addition, a large-scale operation will not lead to any gains in Yemen. Saudi officials, on whom the US had counted as one of the parties to the possible ground attack, have informed the Americans that they will not participate in this operation due to the threats of Ansarallah and the heavy consequences of their attacks. Therefore, the chance of the presence of the Islah Party militants, the Nation's Shield Forces , and other Saudi-affiliated factions in the ground operation is slim. Therefore, only the UAE remains a potential party to this operation, possibly helping indirectly.
On the other hand, Yemen has mountainous terrain and densely populated urban areas, which make military operations a strenuous job, and no aggressor has been able to occupy Yemen in the past.
Also, any ground attack would push the Yemenis to unity and cooperation with Ansarallah, which is against the wishes of the US and the Arab coalition that have spent billions of dollars in recent years to sow division between Ansarallah and the Yemenis, but have not succeeded.
Furthermore, any ground operation would likely be accompanied by high human casualties for US forces and Yemeni civilians, which could lead to domestic and international criticism.
Another issue is that any military intervention by the US may lead to further instability in Yemen, which could provide a suitable environment for the growth and activity of terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda, which has been targeted by Washington many times over the past decade, is looking for an opportunity to strike back at American interests and forces, and a ground battle could provide the chance for its elements to take revenge.
Also, the cost of a ground campaign will be high for the Americans. The air campaign over the past month has already cost Washington over $1 billion, and, indeed, this will be higher in case of a ground battle. This will be costly for Trump administration that spares no chance to inject revenues into the economy.
Dark outlook awaiting aggressors
Despite the push to launch a ground operation, some observers suggest that Washington is currently not focused on it.
Ghabriel Souma, a professor of international law and a member of the advisory board of Trump, told Al-Mushahad that the US government is closely monitoring developments on the ground and may reassess the situation if threats escalate, but there is currently no intention to expand the operation to a direct ground intervention.
Ehab Abbas, an American affairs and international relations expert, says that talk of a ground operation is still speculation and that there has been no decision by Trump or US military commanders to launch ground operations in Yemen.
Sana'a leaders have repeatedly asserted that their Red Sea ban on Israel is in defense of Gaza, and if Israel halts its massacring machine, they will stop their operations. Therefore, if the Americans want peace and stability in the Red Sea and security of the occupied Palestinian territories, the shortest way is forcing Tel Aviv to end its genocidal war against the Palestinians and if the US reins in on Israel, West Asia will re-embrace peace.
Given the past experiences and the growing power gain of Ansarullah, many agree, possible ground offensive on Yemen will meet its failure and such an operation not only may not meet its aims, but also can compound the circumstances.
