Alwaght- For some time, Armenia has been moving in a different way than before. On Saturday, media outlets reported visit to the US of the Armenian prime minister to follow up the strategic agreement the two countries earlier signed.
On January 14, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and then US Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed in Washington a strategic partnership pact, which strengthens the cooperation between the two countries.
According to reports, a joint cooperation commission was formed with its duty being programing within the framework of the two countries' movement towards strategic partnership in the three sectors of economy, security, and politics. Still, paying attention to the goals of these three areas illuminates other dimensions of this cooperation.
What areas will their economic cooperation be in?
Energy-related agreements with nuclear energy as their point of focus is the most important part of their agreement. The former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described this part of agreement as a "turning point" in the bilateral relations. The Armenian FM called it "vital" for the economic resilience of the country. Also, Armenian accession to the European Union is advocated by the US under this agreement.
Cooperation for security or insecurity?
According to reports, the most important security issue in the strategic agreement between Armenia and the US is the borders and border security, which Blinken had repeatedly highlighted. At the same time, behind the scenes of the discussion of borders and border security, other goals can be listed for this agreement, and perhaps part of the border security is related to Armenia's close relations with its two northern and southern neighbors, namely Russia and Iran. What Armenia and the US have agreed on in the security sector is the transparency of Armenia's border and customs activities with the transit of sensitive goods between Russia and Armenia or Russia and Iran through Armenia. Washington's goal is actually to control these relations, and in Washington's view, the transfer of some goods between Russia and Armenia and Iran, including microprocessors and goods that have military applications, runs counter to the American security. During the Ukraine war, several Armenian companies were sanctioned by the US for their links to Russian military activities, and now it seems that the Americans are trying to monitor trade between the three countries of Russia, Armenia, and Iran through control of Armenian customs and border crossings. According to the agreement, a customs service delegation will travel to Armenia from the US for the purpose of providing the necessary training to Armenian customs personnel.
Impacts of the US policy
Expansion of the cooperation between the US and Armenia in economy and security will spread to politics. According to political observers, this agreement is another step towards de-Russianization of Armenian foreign relations and merger into the Western security order. This agreement comes while Armenian political analyst Hrant Melik Shahnazaryan criticized the agreement and warned that it could increase the risk of a new war.
“The rush to sign the Charter of Strategic Partnership between Armenia and the United States is obvious. The United States is actually sending a message to Russia and Iran that they are going to sign the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in Moscow on January 17," He said. He further warned that the document contains provisions that could be perceived as a threat to Russia and Iran and turn Armenia into a tool for advancing US strategic interests in the region.
Will the agreement provide Armenian security?
Though labeled strategic, the agreement does not seem to serve Armenian main aim to improve the country's regional security. While Yerevan has moved towards this agreement to address threats and create a balance with Azerbaijan, the US has not provided any security commitment to maintaining Armenia's security against foreign attack.
On the other hand, with Trump's comeback and resumption of "America first" policy and the new White House's tendency to settle Ukraine crisis using diplomacy with Russia, it does not seem Trump is willing to take on Russia in Armenia. So, it does not seem Biden's legacy in Armenia will continue on under Trump.
Also, it should be taken into account that Russian is highly sensitive about Armenian moves and it does not seem that Moscow will stay indifferent to the measures of the Pro-Western officials in Armenia aimed at EU membership and perhaps the agreement with Washington will only sink Armenia in home instability instead of protecting its security.
