Alwaght- Turkish-American relations have undergone many highs and lows since the early 2000s. In 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the parliamentary election to be the first moderate Islamist party in Turkey that has continued up to now.
In the past, a set of Islamist parties such as Saadat (Felicity) Party won the elections and formed governments, but the army generals and seculars ousted them through military coups.
The rise of AKP introduced a new style of diplomatic apparatus which embarked on a policy of reviewing the long-held foreign policy vision that the US-led West is the only bloc Ankara should strategically coalesce with.
Ankara and Washington's relations strained since 2011, the year popular uprisings in the Arab world ushered in the “Islamic awakening” period. The period saw an escalation of tensions between the two allies, and intensified under the presidency of Barack Obama. The chill crossed into the presidency of Donald Trump, who assumed the power in early 2017. The friction level has reached to an extent that the leaders of the two countries trade threats every now and then. But how serious are these verbal clashes? How will these impact the future of Ankara-Washington relations?
Trump-Erdogan’s concert of mutual threatening
Over the past few days, the Turkish and the American officials traded threats in a situation that can be labeled threats concert. First words were shot by the US Vice-president Mike Pence who asked Ankara to release the American pastor Andrew Brunson or face sanctions. Brunson, who was running a Christian church in Turkey’s Izmir province, was arrested on spying charges after a failed coup against Erdogan in 2016.
“The United States will impose large sanctions on Turkey for their longtime detainment of Pastor Andrew Brunson, a great Christian, family man and wonderful human being,” Trump threatened in a Twitter post on July 26.
The response from Turkey came fast with Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu tweeting “No one dictates Turkey. We will never tolerate threats from anybody. Rule of law is for everyone; no exception.”
Talking to Turkish media President Erdogan also said US president Donald Trump is waging a "psychological war," regarding the spy pastor's case.
Washington would lose a "strong and sincere ally" if the administration there does not change its attitude regarding Brunson, the Turkish leader said, after Trump threatened to impose sanctions against its NATO ally.
In the middle of a war of words in which the pastor’s case took a center stage, Erdogan threatened that if the US avoids delivery of the ordered F-35 fighters jets to Ankara, he will sue Washington in the International Court of Justice.
“We ordered weapons for a while but you did not give us. We asked for drones, you did not give, we asked for Patriot missile systems, you did not give us,” the Turkish president addressed the US.
What is apparent is that the exchange of threats is now serious, reflecting a deep gap in the two sides’ relations. The adopted tone does not bear hallmarks of an alliance or friendship between Washington and Ankara.
Crack in historical US-Turkey ties
Their verbal fight gives the notion that the two countries are witnessing serious diplomatic friction, not only in the case of the pastor but in more serious cases. They are deeply divided on Syria, the US partnership with the Syrian Kurds who are seen by Ankara as archenemies, the struggle over the US-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Glen who is accused of orchestrating the 2016 coup, the F-35 fighters and missile defense systems dispute, and also the way of dealing with Iran sanctions. All these cases in the new conditions fuel growing division between the traditional allies. Since the Second World War, Turkey mounted to be a strategic ally to the West and the US. But Trump presidency marks the rupture in the historical US-Turkey alliance.
Disputes are real and deep
The rows between the two are real and of deep roots. Dreaming of return to the Ottoman Empire magnificence, Erdogan cannot see his country simply being an ordinary member in a US-headed Western camp. He even prefers the East and West Asia over the West.
Turkey went through a democratic process that put AKP on the top, something reflecting the Turkey’s grassroots’ will to return to the Islamic roots which are essentially at odds with many Western values. So, at home now the Turkish leadership enjoys the backing of the people who want their leaders to reject the excesses of the Americans who in practice proved they do not respect their commitments to Ankara. This emboldens the Turkish leaders’ resolution to resist Washington’s pressures, a pathway increasingly undermining the decades-long alliance.
Turkey increasingly poised to abandon Western camp
Amid broadening chasm, the situation goes into a direction of no return. Even if the AKP loses the parliament and the government and secular parties like Republican People’s Party take the power, it is unlikely to see the normalization of ties and return to the strategic alliance that saw Ankara a key party to a Western bloc. The developments have cultivated a theory that Ankara in the near future will step out of the Western front. This theory is supported by Erdogan’s remarks. Talking to the media during a South Africa visit, Erdogan said on Sunday that the US could lose a “sincere partner” should it impose restrictions on Ankara. Although one-shot breakaway is hardly conceivable due to the several-decade relationship, Trump materialization of his sanctions threats will prompt the Turkish separation from its Western partners.
