Alwaght- In recent years, the situation in Yemen has turn out to be one of the most complex ones in the West Asia, the complexity of which has been the result of tribal organization and foreign interference in the country. Over the past few decades, no country has interfered in Yemen as much as Saudi Arabia did; Riyadh has always been one of the influential parties to the political conflicts of the country to the extent that no one at the highest levels of power in Yemen can play role without taking the role and position of Saudis into consideration. It should be noted that Saudi Arabia, since its independence, has always been very particular about Yemen and has been trying to form a unique relationship with the Yemenis to gain maximum benefits out of its presence in the country.
If a year ago one intended to examine the feasibility of a common understanding between Iran and Saudi Arabia about different issues in the West Asia, Yemen would be one of the potential ones; however, the events that recently occurred in Yemen changed the order and overall condition of the country, and have brought about a new situation. The strategy of the Saudis towards Yemen emphasized on not establishing a unified Yemen and exacerbating division, as Saudi Arabia believes that Yemen is the only power in the Arabian Peninsula that can challenge its hegemony.
In general, the revolution in Yemen has been a source of concern for the Saudis. One of the main points concerning this revolution was the fact that some criticisms were leveled at Saudi Arabia and other foreign supporters of Ali Abdullah Saleh. However, Riyadh managed to take advantage of other alternatives in Yemen, and changed the situation into its own benefit, but the Saudis have recognized that a unified Yemen continues to pose a threat against Saudi Arabia and could challenge the hegemony of Saudi Arabia over the Arabian Peninsula. Besides, it would jeopardize the security of Riyadh and other reactionary regimes if their people copy the protests in Yemen. Accordingly, Saudi Arabia is putting on the table the options of dividing Yemen and supporting the centrifugal movements in the country.
The crisis in Yemen has gone beyond the conflicts between the Ansarullah movement and the Yemeni government. Events in Yemen are a manifestation of regional gaps and challenges. This crisis shows that in light of regional challenges between major regional powers, I.e. Iran and Saudi Arabia, the domestic disputes are likely to develop into a regional realignment. In the eyes of Saudi Arabia, the rise of Shiite power in Iraq up to the top of the power pyramid has led to expansion of Iran's web of influence in Iraq and the region, Shiite uprising in Yemen was thought to have the same end. In such a situation; however, Saudi Arabia sees Yemen as its backyard. If Ansarullah comes into power in Yemen, Saudi Arabia will be surrounded by a 'Shiite belt' and a 'geopolitical bottleneck' and will increase the power, capacity and the Iranian leverage against Saudi Arabia and its regional allies. Undoubtedly, this will not be tolerated by Saudi Arabia.
However, the Yemen issue is of strategic importance for Saudi Arabia from a view other than the rise of the Shiites to power or the increasing influence of Iran in the region. It should be noted that although al-Qaeda is mainly active in Pakistan and Afghanistan, in case of instability and 'Somalization' of Yemen, the country together with Somalia will both become a potential base for activities of the al-Qaeda terrorist organization. The continuing failure of the Yemeni government to meet people's basic economic needs, as well as the increased activity and spread of ISIS-al-Qaeda ideology in recent years have aroused major concerns in Saudi Arabia. The country is deeply concerned about the potential return of the 2003 and 2004 bombings, but this time from Yemeni border.
In general, Saudi Arabia is one of the richest countries in the region, and on the contrary Yemen is one of the poorest one in the West Asia. Saudi policy makers believe the wealth gap between the two countries is similar to a 'fault', which due to the proximity of the two countries, has created major concerns about the possibility of insecurity and instability spread into Saudi Arabia, and potential uprisings that might be staged by oppressed dissidents Shiite minority of the country. Saudi Arabia's policy of 'cutting off the foreign aids' and imposing 'economic sanctions' to place pressure on the Yemeni government which results in greater instability, poses high security costs for Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the persistent instability in Yemen, the Ansarullah's upper hand in the government structure, and increasing power of al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorist groups constitute three paradoxical threats against Malik Salman, the new king of Saudi Arabia.
However, considering the tribal system, the stability of each of the religious-political sects (Zaidi Shiite and Shafi'i Sunni) at top of power pyramid, the political order in Yemen will be increasingly fragile and destabilized. Accordingly, the best option for preserving the stability and security in Yemen is to form a transition-coalition government which provides Yemen with relative security through power-sharing and partnerships with various groups and factions. Nevertheless, Iran and Saudi Arabia as two major stakeholders and effective regional countries should certainly agree on the implementation of this scenario. The issues such as ISIS and crises in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen would not be resolved unless these two regional powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, agree with each other. Some analysts, especially those in Western research centers believe the most likely option concerning Yemen is the 'political bartering' between Iran and Saudi Arabia, in which Saudi Arabia dispenses with Syria and Iran dispenses with Yemen.
Martin Riordan, a Democrat analyst from Saban Research Institute, stressing that winning party in Yemen crisis will determine the future prospect of competitions in the West Asia, reiterated that Iran will use Yemen against Saudi Arabia to get concessions on the developments in Iraq and Syria, and Yemen will serve as a lever for continuous pressure on Saudi Arabia.
The West recommends that Saudi Arabia should support the South Yemen against Ansarullah. Bruce Riedel, a Brookings' analyst writes: the member states of Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) have large funds to support South Yemen (if Yemen declares independence). South Yemen could be used as a base to fight against the North Yemen which is largely under the control of Ansarullah. On the other hand, many members of the al-Qaeda terrorist group of the Arabian Peninsula are in southern Yemen who will certainly enter war against the Saudis. However, an independent state in southern Yemen can ask for help from foreign forces to fight al-Qaeda in the region and Ansarullah in the north at the same time.
The above complex issues concerning Yemen suggest that areas of conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia are significantly impressive, and this casts doubt on the prospect of the convergence and agreement between the two countries.
