Alwaght- Iraq's Kirkuk province, which over the past two decades has been one of the politically challenging regions of Iraq and Kurdish partisan clashes have led to constant instability in this oil-rich province, these days has molted and good news are emanating from it for Iraqis.
8 months after the provincial council elections in Iraq, finally the status of the political structures of Kirkuk were determined, and according to the agreement of the ruling parties in this province, Rebwar Taha, of Patriotic Union of Kurdish (PUK), was elected governor of Kirkuk and Ibrahim al-Hafedh, an Arab representative, was elected head of the new provincial council.
The formation of the local government of Kirkuk and election of Taha for the position of governor were the result of a complex process, the decisions of which were taken at a meeting on August 10 in Al-Rashid Hotel, Baghdad.
The meeting was held at the invitation of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani as part of the central government's efforts to resolve political differences in Kirkuk province, as the provincial council has only met once since the election.
According to the agreement that was reached in a 9-people meeting at Al-Rashid Hotel, the main positions, which include the governorship and the head of the council, will be held periodically by the two factions of the Sunni Arabs and the PUK.
The great celebration by the PUK, led by Bafel Talabani, of its victory after gaining the post of governor of the disputed province showed the political value of this achievement and the victory over its main rival, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).
Kirkuk province, which is also called "Little Iraq" due to its ethnic diversity and mosaic structure, is located 300 kilometers north of the capital Baghdad and is one of the most complex regions of Iraq in terms of political and social structure. In addition to the Christian minority, this province includes various groups of Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens, which has made it the center of political and sectarian conflicts for years.
In addition, Kirkuk is a strategic area that connects the center of Iraq with its northeast. On the other hand, it is regarded as one of the most important sources of income for Iraq due to its rich oil and gas reserves, something making Kurdish parties more sensitive to dominate it.
Shock to the KDP
Despite end of the election process, the election of the governor of Kirkuk did not go smoothly and without challenges, and the controversies that arose during the voting session created another crisis, and the KDP, as the main loser of this field, said that it does not recognize it.
"What was done on August 10 at the Al-Rashid Hotel in Baghdad to appoint the governor and the local government of Kirkuk without informing all parties and in the absence of Turkmen representatives and a part of the Arabs and the Kurdistan Democratic Party is not legal and is flawed. We believe that what was done cannot be a solution to overcome the problems of Kirkuk. Solving the problems of this city and healing the pain of the people of Kirkuk cannot be done with bargaining and political games. The solution is not to play alone, not to try to marginalize the parties, and all parties should participate in the management of Kirkuk in good faith and for service to the people," said KDP spokesman.
Ary Harsin, a representative to the KDP in Sulaimaniya, the bastion of the PUK, commented on new governor appointment, saying: "What happened in appointment of the governor was a theater and a plot. Those who plotted do not even dare to explain this agreement in two words."
The process of appointing the governor of Kirkuk was a kind of deal for the distribution of positions, which left the post of the governor and chairman of the provincial council to the PUK, and some other parties were excluded, and the wave of dissatisfaction of the KDP shows that Kirkuk remains in the cycle of tension, crisis and political controversy, because according to the experts, influential political and social forces such as the Turkmen Front, some Sunni Arabs as well as the KDP were absent from this policy making.
Kirkuk challenges are not newly emerged, rather, they have roots in the past four decades when the dictator Saddam Hussein launched a campaign of Arabization in Kirkuk aiming to boost Arab population and marginalize other ethnic groups in the province, a move that intensified ethno-sectarian challenges that relatively continued after collapse of the Baathist dictatorship.
The differences run so high that provincial council elections were not held in Kirkuk in 2009 and 2013, and the province did not experience any elections since 2005, the year a new electoral law was passed.
Between 2013 and 2023, no provincial council elections were held in Iraq, until finally these elections were held again in December 2023.
The PUK, which is aligned with Kurdish and Arab Shiite movements and groups, expected support from these movements in the Kirkuk council elections, and finally the province secured the highest turnout rate. The PUK with 5 seats started the consultations for governor and provincial council posts. Bafel Talabani won the support of 3 members of the Sunni Arabs and one seat of the Christians to form the majority with the support of 9 representatives.
The repercussions of the Kurdistan region's secession referendum held in September 2017 created further aggravation and complexity in Kirkuk. After the arrival of the federal government forces in the city of Kirkuk following the failure of the referendum and the departure of the Kurdish governor from the city, the power relations changed and the Arabs and Turkmens were able to dominate decision-making process in this city.
According to the Iraqi constitution, Iraq is administered federally, and each province has a council to rule it and which is considered its local government. Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Kirkuk has become a central scene of disputes between the Arabs and Kurds and the central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Despite efforts to resolve the conflict through Article 140 of the constitution, which stipulates the resolution of the disputed areas, the election process has been repeatedly delayed due to political and security complications.
In fact, the Kirkuk crisis is a small picture of the general political crisis in Iraq, the source of which is the lack of consensus and trust. This crisis is clearly seen after every parliamentary or local election and the parties try to get maximum benefits and political privileges.
Scales tipped in favor of PUK
With the appointment of a new governor, the PUK seems to have managed to upgrade its position in the province and align other ethnicities with its agenda.
Wael al-Rakabi, a political analyst, told Rozhnews: "The issue of forming governments, whether local or federal, is based on the political consensus among the parties that won the elections, so the Patriotic Union in Kirkuk province has agreements with the Christian side and other Arab and Sunni parties. That's why they secured the post of governor."
What added to the value of the political victory of the PUK was that this victory took place at a time when the KDP seemed to be at the peak of its power, and its leader Massoud Barzani made an alliance with the most prominent Iraqi political forces during his recent trip to Baghdad to strengthen the position of his party in Kirkuk.
He also contacted Sunni Arab political figures, especially Khamis al-Khanjar, the leader of the Azem Alliance, with the aim of partnership to share leadership positions in Kirkuk's local government. Despite all these efforts, Barzani's party lost the political game in Kirkuk to its major rival and now even sees pillars of continuation of its rule over its stronghold Erbil on a shaky ground.
The PUK is aspiring to take the post of prime minister or head of the Kurdish region from Barzanis in the upcoming elections of the autonomous region. Also, the propaganda campaign of the PUK has increased its activities in the two provinces of Erbil and Dohuk in recent weeks in a bid to narrow down its gap in the next elections.
Having in mind that Taha was appointed after parties held a meeting with the PM al-Sudani, cooperation with the central government is expected to boost during his term. The PUK, which holds the leadership in Kirkuk, has friendly ties to Baghdad and so their ties are expected to improve further.
Inside the Kurdistan region, however, the situation will be completely different, and the escalation of confrontation with the KDP is the most expected scenario.
These two main Kurdish political parties are fiercely competing for more seats in the local elections, and undoubtedly more political tensions between them are expected to ignite in the upcoming parliamentary and regional presidential elections. Therefore, as long as their relations are hit by distrust, this vicious circle of dispute will continue.
Political experts maintain that all indicators suggest that with obstructionism of the KDP in the future, political tensions in the province will go on, and this means that amid mutual distrust, disputes are open to intensification anytime.
