Alwaght- Five years after the uprising, Libya is still immersed in chaos, and lacks a strong central government. Due to the disaccords, Libya has witnessed formation of two governments as well as two parliaments since 2014, with both claiming that they were fighting against the rebels and terrorists and calling themselves the legal governments and parliaments of Libya.
With the prolongation of insecurity and instability in the country, the representatives of both Tobruk-based and Tripoli-based governments have held several rounds of negotiation under supervision of the UN’s envoy. After lengthy peace talks, the representatives of two Libyan parliaments, who were in conflict over the government, finally in December 2015 have signed, in the Moroccan town of Sakhirat, the documents which called for formation of a national unity government, which was finally formed on February 15, 2016.
On February 15, 2016, Faiz al-Siraj has presented his cabinet with 13 ministers and five advisors. Disaccord over the post of minister of defense was one of the stumbling blocks ahead of the Libyan government the formation of which was commissioned to Prime Minister Faiz al-Siraj. The new Libyan government was temporarily present in Tunisia.
Libya’s Presidential Council failed to take office in the Libyan capital Tripoli due to the trouble-makings of the Tripoli-based parallel government. The national unity government finally entered Tripoli last week, however.
The national unity government is going to face essential challenges as the chaotic conditions continue in Libya. In other words, despite the fact that the unity government in Libya is an outcome of months of negotiations between the different Libyan groups, its formation would not mean gaining approval of all of the factions present in the dialogue sessions. Based on experiences from past years, the unity government would face challenges as it seems that there would be discords over interpretation and implementation of the agreement terms.
At the present time, the Libyan groups as well as foreign sides have shown further will to put an end to the current situation, however, complicated and challenging political circumstances as a result of varied tendencies of groups from both sides of the conflict and their dependence to some foreign parties have hampered, in practice, formation of national unity government and put a fragile situation ahead of any upcoming measures for ultimate settlement.
The evidences suggest that due to the relevant groups’ inflexible viewpoints and interventionist policies of some foreign sides, it would be hard to improve the political and security conditions of Libya.
In the eyes of some Libyan politicians, a hurried formation of the government without doing some necessary jobs like dissolution of the Council of the Representatives (Tobruk’s parliament) and the General National Congress (Tripoli's Parliament) was a strategic mistake.
According to some independent political Libyan elites, formation of the government under the interventions of the UN, EU, the Western powers, as well as some regional players like Turkey and Qatar, would seize the freedom and independence of decision making of Libya as a sovereign state. Such a situation makes Libya a protectorate under an “intangible colonization", according to the Libyan elites.
According to some Libyan experts, the country’s future would suffer from negative and destructive scenarios because of adopting the quota plan for sharing the power and distributing the posts in the formation of the national unity government. Such a condition, the experts add, would pose serious threats to the national unity and sovereignty of the country, as up to now it pushed Libya to split or federal system, including the three states of Cyrenaica in east, Fezzan in south and Tripoli in west.
In addition to the sticking points mentioned earlier, structural problems would put challenges ahead of the success of Libya’s national unity government. One of these problems is disappearance of security and military structures and the security provision becoming local in Libya.
One of the most significant principles for success of any government in the chaotic West Asia region is having a strong, modern and efficient army, something Libya is devoid of. During Libya’s 9-month civil war imposed on the country by the regime of the former dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has lost its coherence, and now in addition to not having a national government, Libya has no national army. After Muammar Gadhafi, the country’s security administrations were established by the ministry of interior, defense ministry or revolutionary groups, and are now active in separation from each other.
The High Security Committee, the Guardians of the Revolution and the Libya Revolutionaries Operations Room are the most significant post-uprising security organs of Libya. Beside undermining the national army of Libya, these parallel revolutionary institutions have raised disputes with the ministry of interior as well as the ministry of defense and at the same time caused localization of security provision in Libya because each of these organizations, in line with other groups formed by the revolutionaries, preferred a local model of security rather that nationwide levels of security.
The only military group that currently claims that it is a national army are militants who are active under command of General Khalifa Haftar, who by far has gained international endorsement. However, General Haftar and his forces do not have the backing of all of the Libyan groups especially the Tripoli-based Muslim Brotherhood and the militant group Fajr Libya.
In addition to lacking a modern, strong and national army, another security challenge ahead of national unity government of Faiz al-Siraj is that the militants and terror groups have a powerful presence in Libya. The International Crisis Group has suggested that while after Gaddafi's fall between 100 and 300 militant groups existed in Libya which recruited 125,000 members, this numbers jumped to 1600 militant groups in 2014. They hit about 1700 groups in 2015, the assessments suggest. Additionally, such important terror groups as ISIS and Al-Qaeda are also actively present in Libya.
For example, ISIS has captured Sirt city, the birthplace of former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. Certainly, existence of 1700 militant groups along with a strong presence of the terrorist groups, specifically ISIS, are serious challenges and threats hampering the national unity cabinet of Libya.
However, the national unity government of Libya, beside the challenges including destruction of military and security institutions and strong presence of militant as well as terror groups, has some significant opportunities ahead. For example, a majority of the Libyans support the fresh government.
The unity government is also backed internationally. Both of these opportunities could pave the way for success of new Libyan cabinet, and help Libya move out of the current tense conditions. Anyway, national unity government formation is the only way to leave behind the present situation, and to avoid falling into Somalia-style circumstances. To guarantee the success, all opposing parties should show commitment to its terms, especially that the past four years' developments in the country have pushed Libya to dangerous brinks, and their continuation would bring forth nothing but increased insecurity and terrorism for the Libyan political sides, including Tobruk-based and Tripoli-based governments. Libya's conditions are also dangerous for the European and North African countries like Libya's neighbors Egypt and Tunisia. Libya has turned into a depot for the blind terrorism and a pad for penetration into the neighboring states. Thereby, despite all the challenges ahead, formation of national unity government and its presence in the country is a very significant step ahead towards peace and stability in future Libya.
