Alwaght- Eighty year-old Saudi King has been terminally ill and is now under full medical treatment to the extent that some believe he has lost his consciousness and the Saudi royal family refrains from his unnecessary presence in the public, and some others speculate that he is being kept in one of the rooms of his palace. However, in the past, John Kerry had pointed out that King Salman read his speech from an iPad. However, a big question arises! Who will be the successor of the king? In Saudi Arabia, crown prince and the crown prince's successor are known as “two Mohammads”. There are growing speculations that the thirty year-old Mohammad bin Salman, the current defense minister and deputy crown prince, will succeed his father. But apart from the speculations, both domestically and internationally, Mohammad bin Nayef, the current crown prince of Saudi Arabia, is ignored.
A look at the power structure of the Saudi crown prince and his successor reveals that power of Mohammad bin Salman has been more concentrated. He is the first son of the third and of course favorite wife of King Salman, and when his father was the governor of Riyadh province, Salman got close to him and served as the agent of the family that gave him a sense of power. From 2011 to 2015, when Salman was the defense minister of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad was notorious for bullying the ministers. From April 2013 to June 2014, four Saudi princes who had a post at the time lost their posts.
Nevertheless, such behavior could be clearly seen in the sessions, as in many occasions Mohammad bin Salman sits separately and tries to humiliate the position of bin Nayef with inappropriate movements such as reading a magazine. Therefore, it's hard to imagine “two Mohammads” working together well without any problems. On the other hand, it should be noted that some Saudi princes, not so powerful but quite influential, demand the transfer of power from one brother to another, to the extent that they advocate that Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the brother of King Salman, should be the successor to the King. This support for Prince Ahmed might be sufficient to convince Mohammad Bin Salman to give up the future kingdom.
However, it is speculated that Mohammad bin Salman has provoked his father to settle the dispute before it is escalated, fearing that 65 year-old Mohammad bin Nayef might ascend the throne. As the first precaution, he s e l e c ted the successor to Mohammad Bin Salman. One option for King Salman is to quit the Presidency of ministers and give up this position to his son Mohammad, so that in terms of executive power, he is in a position higher than that of Mohammad bin Nayef. Meanwhile, one should not overlook the weaknesses of Mohammad bin Salman. Although, the tensions with Iran have been at the focus of attention, the most important thing for Saudi Arabia still is Yemen quagmire, a crisis which has imposed huge costs on Saudi Arabia, has an uncertain future, and is quite related to Mohammad bin Salman. Meanwhile, immaturity and inexperience of Mohammad bin Salman is quite evident in his interviews with foreign media.
But generally speaking, Mohammad bin Salman has more chance to succeed his father, in a way that even John Kerry in tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, addressed Mohammad bin Salman more than king Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Nayef. The point that should be noted is the fact that Mohammad bin Nayef has no son, but Mohammad bin Salman has some sons, and is more preferred for this position. Under normal conditions, Mohammad bin Nayef, who has been isolated by his cousin, after Salman should ascend the throne, but we should bear in the mind that only after a short period since the beginning of his kingdom, he appointed Salman, his inexperience and young son, as the Ministry of Defense. But apart from these two options, other alternatives including a coup should not be ignored; As one of the Saudi princes in an interview with the Daily Times had claimed that 80 percent of the Saudi royal family had asked him to seize the throne by a coup from the sick Salman, arrogant Bin Nayef and bin Salman who have destroyed the country; however, the newspaper did not mention the name of the Saudi prince for security reasons.
At this point, Winston Churchill’s famous saying is noteworthy: “opportunities are created in the middle of crises”. Therefore, anyone who seizes the opportunity to make better use of the chances in the political arena of Saudi Arabia, he would succeed King Salman, as his son Mohammad, compared to Mohammad bin Nayef, made his best to assume the role of a courageous leader in recent regional crises through seeking power and paving the way for implementing their own objectives.
