Alwaght-The election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan as Turkey's president has aroused many discussions on his successor in Development & Justice Party (JDP) and in the position of premiership. Indeed, nomination of many figures for occupying his position in JDP and rumors about Abdullah Gul's future and running a Putin-Medvedev-like model in Turkey. Meanwhile, Erdogan has offered Ahmet Davutoglu as his successor in DJP and as Turkey's new prime minister put an end to all disputes. Accordingly, the future of Turkey's foreign policy must be in sought in policies adopted by Erdogan and Davutoglu.
Ahmet Davutoglu was born in Konya on 26 February 1959. He got BA in political science and economics from Bogazici University in 1983. He earned Ph.D. in Political Science from the same university. He became the assistant professor of International Islamic University of Malaysia (ISUM) in 1990 and founded the department of Political Science at ISUM and served as its dean until 1993. Davutoglu was promoted to associate professor in 1993. He continued teaching at several universities from 1995 to 2004. He had published several books and papers on Turkey's foreign policy in English and Turkish. His works are translated into several languages, including Russian, Japanese, Arabic, Persian, Portuguese, and Albanian. He wrote a thesis, Strategic Depth, in 2001 that called for following a new strategy based on a "Multidimensional strategic perspective". According to his words, Turkey should play the role of an independent policy-maker, not the role of an obedient executer of America's global agenda. According to his strategy, Turkey's historical and cultural potentialities should be applied in order to promote its strategic depth by followings:
1. Security for all
2. High-rank political negotiation
3. Mutual economic relations
4. Cultural cohesion and diversity
DJP victory in the 2002 election was a historical turning point. DJP's lack of foreign policy experience made them to appoint Davutoglu as Erdogan's foreign policy consultant. Davutoglu seized this opportunity to put his theory, Strategic Depth, into action. He was appointed as Turkey's foreign minister in 2009 that gave him the chance to change Turkey's foreign policy.
According to him, Turkey has to solve the Kurds' problems and bridge the widening gap between Islamists and seculars in order to achieve its global strategic aspirations. He called for solving the following problems based on the liberal principles.
1. Turkey's strategic potentiality would not be activated, unless the Kurds' problem be solved fairly and permanently and their rights be observed.
2. Turkish people should come to a liberal consensus on the problem of secularism and Islamism.
However, it seems that Davutoglu is faced with numerous difficulties, dealing with these problems. Regarding Kurds' problem, he can not only count on Turkey government's will, because regional condition and developments is also effective. Kurdish region of Iraq's condition, situation of Syrian Kurds, and their relation with Kurdistan Workers' Party can also challenge solving this problem. In addition there is no consensus among different political parties on this issue.
Considering the second problem, Davutoglu is faced with some challenges, because seculars do not cooperate with Erdogan and on the other hand, some Islamist parties like Gülen's Movement are against Erdogan and his policies. In addition, DGP's internal challenges make more difficulties for Davutoglu. Abdullah Gul was removed from his positions in DGP that can make an opposition leader out of him. Differences between Gul and Erdogan begun after Syria crisis and was intensified during Gezi Park protests. Regarding to his charismatic character, Gul seems to be able to take the opposition parties leadership, because his honesty in publicizing his ideas and respecting opposition leaders have made him more acceptable than Erdogan, even among Secular parties. So it is expected that Gul will take more serious status in the near future that will challenge Erdogan and Davoutoglu's position.
Another challenge for Davoutoglu's premiership is Erdogan's plan to increase the power of the president. Indeed, Erdogan seeks to transform the executive power of the prime minister to the president. He aims to modify Turkey's Constitution in order to make the presidency as the most important executive power of the country that is a formal position now. He believes that having a powerful president, like in America, is more useful for Turkey that the current parliamentary system which means that prime minister will not be powerful like what was in past. Accordingly, Davoutoglu's powers will be restricted.
Studying Davoutoglu's foreign policy indicates that his theories are not efficient and if he aims to put his doctrine into action inside Turkey, he should wait for unexpected events.
Weighing up Davoutoglu's foreign policy shows that his diplomatic measures to improve Turkey's relations with its neighboring countries were fruitless. For example, Turkey signed some protocols with Armenia in 2009 to establish political relations between two countries that led to the Republic of Azerbaijan officials' frustration. Azerbaijan authorities, whom considered Turkey as their older brother, threatened Turkey to cut off gas export to this country. Turkey's proposal to Armenia for reconciliation led to nowhere and countries' bordered remained closed.
Turkey's relations with Israeli regime went dark after Zionist attacks to Turkey's ship in international waters that resulted in death of nine peace activists, trying to break the Gaza blockade. Turkey's hope for establishing relations with Greece became null after its economic collapse. In addition, Turkey's disputes with Greece and Israeli regime resulted in a close relationship between these two countries. On the other hand, exploitation of Israeli regime and Greek language part of Cyprus from gas fields in East Mediterranean made Turkey officials more frustrated. After Gaddafi's fall, many agreements between Turkey and Libya were suspended. For the sake of Ankara's status on the Syria crisis, improving economic relations with Saudi and other Persian Gulf countries became blocked. Its relation with Iraq, also, was damaged when Turkey tried to establish relationship with Kurdish region of Iraq.
It seems that political shift in Turkey's foreign policy, aspired by Davutoglu, has had many weak points and Davoutoglu's claim in naturalizing relation with neighboring countries is far from reality. In addition, if such a simplistic and illusionary view is spread into Turkey's domestic affairs, the sever consequences are expected.
