Alwaght- Following the terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir last week and the claims of the New Delhi leaders about Pakistan's hand in it, alarm of a big war between the two nuclear powers is ringing higher than ever.
Given the importance of the issue, Alwaght discussed the attack in Kashmir and the factors heightening the tensions between India and Pakistan with Ismail Bagheri, a senior analyst of Indian Peninsula affairs.
Kashmir attack not an incident: three key signs
Referring to the coincidence of Kashmir attack and the visit to India of the US Vice President JD Vance, Mr Bagheri said that Vance's visit to India and Kashmir attack took place at a very sensitive time. Its coincidence with the visit of US vice president to India, and also on the eve of Trump's possible visit to this country to participate in the Quad Leaders' Summit, cannot be considered a "coincidental" event.
To understand the reasons for this attack and the factors affecting the escalation of tension between India and Pakistan, we need to pay attention to a few key points. First, we should mention the long history of tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. This disputed region has always been a hotbed of conflict and instability, and various groups are active in it that seek independence or accession to Pakistan. From time to time, we witness attacks in this region, for which India usually accuses Pakistan for its alleged backing to separatist groups, although Islamabad has always denied these accusations. Second, the timing of this attack is very significant. The visit of a top American official to New Delhi is of particular importance in the midst of geopolitical competitions in the region and the US efforts to strengthen relations with India as a counterweight to China. Some analysts believe that the aim of this attack could be to create an unstable and insecure atmosphere in the region in order to pursue specific goals. And third, the initial reactions to this attack are significant. The widespread condemnation of this act by all religious and political leaders of Kashmir, even groups with anti-Indian views, shows that this attack has no place among the local people. However, unfortunately, some media and Hindu extremist groups in India have immediately pointed the finger of blame at Kashmiri Muslims and called for revenge, which has greatly fueled the anti-Islamic and anti-Kashmiri atmosphere in India.
Foreign footprint in the crisis
In another part of his comments, Bagheri pointed to the role of foreign actors in these tensions, adding that we can see footprints of some foreign powers in these disputes. As some reports suggest, the aim of such actions is sowing sedition and gaining specific interests. The US vice president's expected visit to New Delhi and the the American push to strengthen India in the face of China can explain these interests. Also, the support of Muslims of Kashmir to Palestine and their condemnation of Israeli crimes in Gaza and its coincidence with the Kashmir attack and death of an Israeli can another aspect of this complexity. Some believe that the aim of this attack was to overshadow these supports and sowing division between the Muslims and other communities in this disputed region.
Historical roots of Kashmir crisis
The analyst added that the historical incidents and developments are the roots of the dispute between India and Pakistan. He said that various factors have a role in recent escalation between the two neighbors and any development in the region can fast spiral into a crisis between the two countries. The second point, according to him, is that mutual accusations of New Delhi and Islamabad about support to terrorist groups have created deep distrust and made efforts to de-escalate a difficult job. The third point is that the activity of radical group on the two sides of the border and provocation of religious and nationalist feelings have created a toxic atmosphere for any understanding and reconciliation. The fourth point is that interference of foreign actors and regional powers to shape the regional equations, either unintentionally or intentionally, can inflame tensions.
The fifth point, he continued, that is pressuring the governments of both countries to take stricter positions is the reactions of the media and the agitation of public opinion through them and social networks. The sixth point is that the coincidence of the recent terrorist attack with the visit of the US vice president and ahead of possible visit to India of Trump can be seen by some parties as a sign of foreign support or interference and lead to increased distrust. There is undoubtedly another issue involved that indirectly affects the level of tensions between India and Pakistan and it is the way the two deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Taliban and Tahreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP): The effective actors in crisis
Mr Bagheri referred to the role of the Tahreek-i-Taliban Pakistan as an intermediary variable in complication of the state of dispute between New Delhi and Islamabad that is neglected in analyses.
Elaborating on the dealing of India and Pakistan with the Taliban, Mr Bagheri held that when we say that the way India and Pakistan interact with the Taliban in Afghanistan adds another layer of complexity to their tense relations, it has two aspects: On the one hand, India has been cautious and pragmatic in its interactions with the current government in Kabul after the fall of the government it supported in Afghanistan and the Taliban came to power. India has security and economic interests in Afghanistan and does not want the power vacuum created by the US withdrawal to become a haven for anti-Indian terrorist groups. Some reports also indicate that India has even established informal communication channels with the Taliban and has emphasized the preservation of its infrastructure assets in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pakistan has a complicated history with the Taliban. In fact, Pakistan is rightly or wrongly considered the mastermind of the Taliban. One of the main reasons for Islamabad’s support for the Taliban was to check India’s influence in Afghanistan. However, after the Taliban came back to power in Kabul, relations between Islamabad and the Taliban have gone chilly. Pakistan is concerned that Afghan soil is becoming a safe haven for anti-Pakistani terrorist groups, particularly the TTP. TTP attacks inside Pakistan have increased, and Islamabad, while accusing the Afghan Taliban of failing to contain the group, accuses India of intelligence support for the group.
So, we can see, Mr Bagheri added, that India and Pakistan have adopted different approaches to the Taliban of Afghanistan and this issue can stir up the already-existing distrust. If India engages in closer ties to the Taliban, Pakistan may consider this a measure by New Delhi to get a foothold in its neighborhood and this by itself can be inflame tensions.
Commenting on the role of the TTP in the tensions, Mr Bagheri said that the group is a crucial and complicating factor in the analysis of India-Pakistan relations. The TTP is a cross-border terrorist group that pursues its goals inside Pakistan, but is said to have safe havens in Afghanistan; although the Afghan Taliban have denied or downplayed the presence of TTP elements on the Afghan soil. From Pakistan’s perspective, TTP attacks are a serious threat to the country’s national security. Islamabad has repeatedly called on the Taliban in Kabul to check the group’s activities, but the Taliban seem either unable or unwilling to do so. Indeed, an agreement was reached between Pakistan and the Taliban to keep TTP elements away from Pakistan’s borders. This situation has led Pakistan to accuse India of covertly supporting the TTP to destabilize the country, although India denies these accusations. But Pakistan claims that India’s role cannot be ignored in the increase in attacks by the Baloch separatist groups (BLA) and TTP in the last year or two. Pakistan will undoubtedly provide evidence to support this claim.
Although the so-called “Kashmir Resistance Front” (TRF), an offshoot of the lashkar-e-Taiba (Tel) terrorist group , is said to have claimed responsibility for the attack on tourists in the Pahalgam area of Indian-controlled Kashmir, in any case, other groups based in the region inspired by similar extremist ideology could carry out terrorist attacks. Actually, these terrorist attacks could severely strain India-Pakistan relations, according to Mr Bagheri.
Therefore, the TTP, Taliban or any other extremist group as a non-state actor with its own goals and interests can be exploited by India and Pakistan as an intermediary variable. India accuses Pakistan of supporting LeT and reciprocally Pakistan accuses India of supporting the TTP and Baloch separatists. Therefore, as this situation continues, tensions between India and Pakistan will heighten. In the context of these tensions, it remains to be seen what role effective regional and trans-regional actors will play.
Crisis outlook
In his closing words, Mr Bagheri held that now the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in an order has given the army "freedom of action" to respond to the last week attack.
Why Modi has issued such an order is related to a number of issues:
First, the attack in a relatively safe and touristy area, which resulted in significant casualties, has heightened concerns about security in the region. At a time when India claims that Pakistan has been harboring and funding terrorist groups operating in Kashmir, public sentiment in India is also strongly in favor of taking resolute action against terrorism.
The second point is that he wants to say that this time he is determined to deal radically with the perpetrators and supporters of terrorist groups. Therefore, giving the army the leeway to act freely demonstrates a strong resolve to confront perceived threats and prevent future attacks.
The third point, which is highly threatening, is the design of new scenarios by New Delhi and even Washington to further isolate Islamabad. In this regard, India has upped its interactions and contacts with the Taliban government in Afghanistan. Some eyewitnesses claim that the leaked videos from the day of the incident in Pahalgam do not show any action taken to prevent the attackers. The escalation of tension and even the outbreak of war between India and Pakistan is in some way to the benefit of the US and to the detriment of its rivals in the Peninsula. The negative consequences of such an event for Iran will also be great.
Unfortunately, with regard to the current strained conditions and unprecedented tensions, it is hard to predict the future of relations between the two countries. Odds are India will build pressure on the Muslims of Kashmir and further accuse Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism. As mentioned, the past similar incidents pushed the two sides to the brink of war. However, we should hope that they exercise self-restraint and prudence to steer clear of higher tensions and seek diplomatic solutions and dialogue. But given the interests of some regional and international actors in continued instability, there is a difficult path ahead.
