Alwaght- As the Gaza war goes on for its eighth month, the Andisheh Sazan-e-Nour Institute for Strategic Studies held a press meeting in which it shed light on the current state of war. In this meeting, the West Asia affairs expert Saadullah Zaree discussed Gaza developments with an emphasis on the significance of the remarkable success of the Axis of Resistance in recent days on the battleground.
Fast-moving Gaza developments
Suggesting that over the past two to three weeks we have witnessed major developments in Gaza war, Mr Zaree held that the UN resolution for ceasefire, the dissolution of the Israeli war cabinet, the heavy defeat of the Israelis in Rafah and Jabalia, and the recent death of over 10 Israeli troops despite operating advanced tanks were the most important developments of Gaza battle in recent weeks. Also, on the northern front, according to Zaree, we are witnessing the firm establishment of Hezbollah position and its operations from January to May have tripled. Hezbollah's operations have began to move faster especially after martyrdom of its senior commander Abu Talib. According to reports, Hezbollah just in one day last week fired 200 rockets at the Israeli sites, disrupting the north. At the same time, Yemeni operations against Israel were stepped up along with Hezbollah escalation, signaling a change in the Resistance camp.
Tel Aviv afraid of defeat
The head of Andisheh Sazan-e-Nour Institute for Strategic Studies added that currently the Israelis and the Americans share the view that Gaza war should end with military victory of Tel Aviv. In other words, Washington and Tel Aviv agree on the point that the war should not end under a non-military process and are working hard to secure full Israeli military win and full Hamas loss.
Pillars of Israeli existence break
Mr Zaree named the military, politics, security, and foreign relations as the four pillars of the Israeli existence, adding that Israeli has suffered losses in all these areas.
He went on that in Gaza war, the Israeli intelligence apparatus suffered a mistake on determining the places of concentration of the resistance, their weapons, and the places of keeping the Israeli prisoners. Its casualties in Rafah and Khan Younis disclosed this Israeli mistake. Moreover, the Israeli military system is disrupted with the collapse of the war cabinet, while at the same time the political system has failed to make a home consensus to end the division. In the foreign relations, the trend is against Israel, as 148 countries voted to recognize an independent state of Palestine. Also, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that was formed to support the top powers like the US issued more than three rulings in favor of Gaza. Also, wave of support to Gaza and protest against Israel formed in more than 250 key American universities. These show that the Israeli foreign relations have suffered damage. So, at present, end of war without military victory for Israel means destruction of four pillars of Israeli existence and this means facilitation of collapse of Israel.
Conditions slip out of Israeli control
In other part of his speech, Mr Zaree called attention to this reality that everything does not depend on the will of the US and Israel, and they cannot plan war process and end. A majority of Gaza developments take place out of control of Israel. Here are some examples:
The increase of resistance operations to 430 shows that Gaza resistance has managed to destroy Israeli military wares with new rockets. This means that Gaza resistance, just contrary to the Israeli claims, was not eliminated and holds the initiative.
Furthermore, Hezbollah is out of the lines of Israeli initiative, and over the past week, particularly after martyrdom of its senior commander Abu Talib, it stepped up its operations. Hezbollah caused Israel's calculations to collapse with its extensive operations. In terms of quality, Hezbollah has increased its firing from a depth of 5 km to a depth of 40 km in the occupied territories, and the total number of Hezbollah operations in one day has reached 200, while previously the total number of its daily operations was an average of 20.
Bluff of attacking Lebanon
Mr Zaree pointed to the threats being made these days against Lebanon by the Israeli officials, saying that in order to cover up their failure, the Israelis raise the issue of attacking Hezbollah and attacking southern Lebanon and talk about the priority of the war on the northern front, but when we look at these claims, we realize that Israel is raising the northern front to cover up the losses it suffered over last month, amid warnings by its commanders that the military is incapable of engaging in a new front. Therefore, threats of attacking southern Lebanon ar just a bluff.
Tel Aviv's dead end for continuation of war
Mr Zaree added that experts warn that Israel cannot continue war on its current form and is inevitable to make fundamental changes to administration of war. It seems that the dissolution of the war cabinet is a prelude to these changes. When hardline National Security Minister Itmar Ben-Gvir's membership of the war cabinet was raised, Netanyahu’s office rejected the idea, signaling that Tel Aviv has the conviction that it cannot advance the war with bombing and committing crimes like in Al-Nurairat camp. Also, though the US-drafted resolution adopted by the Security Council was hypocritical, it contained no talk of arms and recognized Hamas as one side of the negotiations to appease this resistance movement. But this resolution has a fundamental problem and it is that it does not determine the fate of war and does not include Israeli military exit from Gaza. At the same time, after months of opposing and vetoing the resolutions, the US has this time itself drafted a resolution, showing that Washington leaders understand that Israel is in a critical situation.
Clear victory of resistance in war
According to Zaree, the picture of war is now clear. The defeat of Israel and the US despite use of 70,000 tons of various American ammunition in Gaza is obvious. This huge amount of weapons and ammunition was shipped to Israel during the war. The plans to protect security of Israel have collapsed, too, and on the opposite side, the Resistance camp is obviously victorious. The victory of Hezbollah’s initiatives in the war is clear, and the resistance has proven its victory in Gaza. According to the Israelis themselves, resistance operations have increased from 110 attacks to 430 and these operations have endangered the position of Israel. Also, the victory of Iran as the supporter of the Resistance camp and the victory of the supporters of Palestine is clear all over the world. But there is a concern that the American and Israeli officials will try to present a different image by giving a fake image at a time Israel is brought to its knees on the battlefield, and here the vigilance of the media is very important in front of the American conspiracies.
The historic and influential victory of Gaza people in 8 months of blockade without food and water and while rained down with thousands of tons of bomb in a 360 square kilometer territory is great one. This resistance of people on the battleground should be displayed to the world public opinion, because we have not seen such a resistance around the world. No nation more than people of Gaza deserves to be the addressee of the Quaranic verses regarding final victory. The duty of the media is to prevent this victory from being forgotten. This victory should be discussed and promoted.
Outcomes of war
At the end of his words, Mr Zaree held that Operation Al-Aqsa Storm demonstrated that Palestine cannot be ignored and cannot be let go and isolated. The Palestinian cause should be seriously put on agenda and this is one of the outcomes of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm. Also, Israel will face internal crises after the war, and its first crisis will definitely be immigration. So far, a population of about one million people emigrated from Israel permanently in the last eight months. Therefore, the population of Israel will decrease.
Infighting will continue after war and trust in officials has dropped. This situation will lead to decline of Israeli position. At the same time, the Palestinians will move past the current situation and the two-state initiative and the regional network cooperation for elimination of Israel will be boosted. Actually, the region will not return to pre-October 7 days. Iran's military policy will certainly not return to pre-October 7 days either. This is also true about policies of Hezbollah and Yemen's Ansarullah, as Israel will sink in a tunnel of ambiguity and uncertainty.
