Alwaght- A single week separates Turkey from its 13th presidential elections. In addition to people, the vote is significant for the foreign governments which are following its developments with sensitivity.
The current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and six-party opposition’s candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who are the two hopefuls in the May 14 elections according to polls, have elaborated on their home and foreign policy for the public. Foreign policy is a marginal matter for the people of Turkey, but due to the global changes that followed Ukraine war, the outcome of the elections are important for Russia and the West.
Why is Erdogan important for the Russians?
Russia, which has been seeking new allies after its campaign in Ukraine, counts on Turkey as a weight. The reason why the Russians find Erdogan a proper option in their push to advance their policies in the world and the region is the good relations and interactions the two countries have in various areas. One of the most important of these cases is Erdogan government’s stances on the war in Ukraine. Since Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Turkey has been following cautious diplomatic actions, and although it has condemned Russia’s attack, it has not aligned with Western sanctions against Moscow.
In an action running counter to the Western sanctions, Erdogan considered the Western embargo as an opportunity for Ankara to fill the void of European companies that had left Russia, and according to statistics, in 2022, Turkey-Russia trade exceeded $1.5 billion. Turkey has even agreed with the Russians to transfer this country’s gas to Europe and other regions, and it plays a transit role in this field and helps Russia to earn from energy exports.
Another point pushing forward Erdogan’s relationship with Russia is the massive presence of Russian tourists in Turkey. After Europe closed its doors to Russian tourists, they turned to Turkey as a replacement, and in 2022, more Russians than ever visited Turkey, and according to data, Russian tourists and investments have pushed up the Turkish profits to $46.2 billion, a record income from tourism ever. Due to the economic crisis and the earthquake aftermaths, Turkey needs more income from the tourism sector in order to address its challenges.
This approach conflicts with the American policy of isolating Moscow and zeroing its energy incomes and that is why they are annoyed with Erdogan. Erdogan has shown a more independent approach to the Westerners than his predecessors and is trying to continue the policy of developing cooperation with Moscow if he is reelected. However, Kilicdaroglu’s positions are not compatible with Moscow’s policies, and if he wins, there is a possibility of revising the cooperation policy with Russia. As he made it clear in an interview with the BBC on Friday, he prefers relations with the West to closeness with Russia. According to the opposition candidate, membership in European Union and improving relations with the West are more important than anything for the Turkish people. He vowed to revive EU accession bid with strength if he wins. This is while the Russian officials are seeking to weaken the European bloc, and in this case, the positions of the Turkish opposition are in conflict with Moscow’s policies and interests.
Although Kilicdaroglu said he will continue relations with Russia and establish a balance between Moscow and the West, now the country’s bilateral relations with Russia are not only an internal issue, but the US and the Europeans will play an important role in this regard to formulate Turkish policy according to their wishes, and Kılıçdaroğlu will have to give in to these wishes. Observers believe that if the opposition wins, Turkey will try to reduce its dependence on Russian energy from 50 percent to 30 percent, which is a kind of assistance to the US that is bending over the backwards to cut off Russian energy revenues.
Energy and arms partnership
Another reason behind Erdogan’s importance for Moscow is the burgeoning military cooperation between the two countries in recent years. Erdogan bought S-400 air defense systems from Russia despite strong Western opposition. Russia used the deal to deepen inter-NATO gaps and distance Turkey from the West. Buying advanced weapon systems from Russia was a kind of crossing NATO’s red line and infuriated the leaders of this military alliance. In response to air defense deal, the White House suspended the sale of F-35 and F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, and this inflamed the tensions between Ankara and Washington. But Erdogan did not give in to Washington’s pressure and in defiance of his Western ally, he threatened to buy Su-57, a fifth-generation fighter jet, from Russia if the jets are not delivered. This is while the six-party opposition leaders say that if they assume the power, they will push for F-35 fighters as one of priorities of an opposition-led potential government. Turkey’s desire to buy fighter jets from the US means cutting off military cooperation with Russia, and analysts believe that if the opposition forces win, Washington will pressure Turkey to suspend the use of the S-400s.
In recent years, Russia has tried to deepen the gap in the Western camp by pushing Turkey away from NATO, and currently the eastern wing of NATO has been seriously damaged due to Ankara’s relatively good relations with Moscow, and the Russians prefer to see Erdogan continue holding the power to help weaken NATO. But Kilicdaroglu held that he is not inclined to upset the NATO members and will align more with the West.
In Finland and Sweden NATO membership bids, Erdogan went tough and was the only member to oppose, and this issue was also a kind of playing in Moscow’s puzzle, but Kilicdaroglu, who dreams of EU accession, will have to make concessions to the US and the EU in return for realization of his demands from the West.
Although the Americans claim that they spare no efforts to help their allies, they have proven otherwise in action. Turkey is a member of NATO, but it was Russia that built its first nuclear power plant, which was opened recently, and allowed it to join the world club of countries with nuclear power. There are reports that under an agreement with Ankara for the construction of the nuclear power plant, Russia plans to deploy its radar and missile systems near this power plant in Turkey, which is a kind of infiltration past NATO lines, and this is not what the Americans want. Therefore, with the continuation of Erdogan’s presidency, the cooperation between Moscow and Ankara in military field will be strengthened, something worrisome to the Americans.
Erdogan’s alignment with Russian regional policies
In regional issues, Turkey somehow leans towards the Russians. Despite being opposite of the Russians in Syrian crisis, in recent years, Erdogan fine-tuned his stances on Damascus and these days seeks a rapprochement with it with Russian mediation. The more he moves closer to Russia, the farther he moves away from the West. Though Kilicdaroglu has said that he will put relations with Syria on the agenda, because Washington is extremely angry about this issue, it can dissuade him from this approach by some military and economic privilege offers.
To wrest more concessions from the West, Erdogan also attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in September 2022 in a warning to the American officials that if they do not agree to his demands, he has new options on the table never favorable to the West. But everyone knows that Kilicdaroglu strongly opposes Erdogan’s foreign policy, especially in relation to West Asia and North Africa, and it means that he is at odds with Moscow’s policies in these regions.
Just unlike Erdogan who in any home and foreign policies acts independently from the West, Kilicdaroglu is devoid of such capability since he is a fruit of coalition of six parties each following own demands and ambitions, and he will find it difficult to unite them. As former foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who is now part of the opposition bloc, put it, Kilicdaroglu would not take strategic decisions without coordination with coalition leaders.
Analysts believe that Russia supports Erdogan because of the relatively good relations it has had with Turkey in recent years, but the West prefers Kilicdaroglu as Turkey’s leader as Erdogan posed challenges to the Western plans. Earlier last month, the US ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake met Kilicdaroglu, arousing the ire of Erdogan who described it an intervention in the elections.
“We need to teach America a lesson in these elections,” Erdogan addressed his supporters, adding: “Joe Biden speaks from there, what is Biden’s ambassador doing here? He goes to visit Mr Kemal. It’s a shame, give your head some work. You are the ambassador. Your interlocutor here is the president.”
The opposition say that they will prioritize relations with the West and rebuilt trust with the West, but the fact is that the Russian-Turkish relations in recent years have grown so interwoven that Kilicdaroglu cannot easily disengage from them. The opposition’s insistence on walking a tight rope between Russia and the West is indication of their tendency to neutrality in a state of international instability. From another perspective, since course of recent global developments shows that Russia and China have the upper hand over the West and since Turkish public value the gains their country made from cooperation with Russia, total departure from Russia partnership looks impossible to an opposition-held government.
