Alwaght- One of the consequences of bombing the Russian passenger's jet over Egypt in a terror attack by ISIS terrorist group and the terror attacks which hit the heart of Paris was the beginning of a wave of Islamophobia and revenge among the non-Muslims. The wave has developed so far that gave rise to establishment of new radical Christian groups in the face of the Islamist takfiri groups like ISIS. A very blatant example is the advent of a group with "viva Virgin Mary" slogan. That just like the terror group ISIS, the group has called itself the Christian state, threatening to behead the Muslims.
Considering the ISIS' performance, the establishment of such revengeful groups is not unimaginable. The extremist stereotype of Islam religion in general has originated following the 9/11 terror attacks in the US, strengthened by taking the Christians hostages and massacring them by ISIS terrorists and reached its highest level as a result of the recent Paris terror attacks. In fact, one of the largest repercussions of ISIS' transcending it borders was the development of the inter-branch fighting into the inter-religion battle, pushed ahead with the so-called aim of removing the infidelity by ISIS' ideology. Meanwhile, the non-Muslim areas in West Asia and regions close to it are susceptible to tension eruption. The Syrian, Lebanese and Egyptian Christians fall in this risky category. Southern Caucasus region, due to its conditions, its proximity to West Asia and its record of historical crises, is too susceptible to such tensions, as it is panicked about such possible incidents. Meanwhile, Iran's neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan could potentially be the epicenters of the violence. Because Armenia as a Christian country, is located among the Muslim countries. It has the Sunni Turkey in its western side. They have had disputes since the Ottoman Empire. The genocide of the Armenians committed by the Ottomans is a good example substantiating the two sides' tense relations.
From east there is Azerbaijan with a Shiite majority. It is traditionally in dispute with its neighbor especially over Karabakh region. Though being world's second Shiite country after Iran, due to pan-Turkist leaning of its government, especially from Ilham Aliyev presidency on, Azerbaijan has not developed warm ties with Iran. In recent years, there have been some communications between Iran and Azerbaijan, and there is a significant cultural links between them, however, the extreme pan-Turkism sentiment and even the idea of establishing the " great Turkey" Through the integration of Turkish provinces of Iran to Azerbaijan, which is endorsed by the country's pan-Turkists, have blocked any consistent policies between these two Shiite countries. This is while the Iran-Armenia ties, underpinned by a peace background, are warmer than other regional countries.
On the other side is Russia, located north of Caucasus. Although non-Muslim country, Russia has a large Muslim community and on the other hand Caucasus region is considered as the country's backyard and is an important part of the Russian national interests. Any chaos erupting in the region, while affecting Iran, could trigger a strong Russian response. Thereby, it seems that regardless of different Russia-Iran interests in Caucasus, stability in this region is of special importance for both of them. It is for this reason that such region's countries as Armenia are seeking to draw their southern and northern neighbors' support to ensure their own security and stability.
Armenia has a couple of security fears which include:
1. Rise of radical Islamic movements in Azerbaijan could lead to a spillover of extremism to Armenia which is historically in dispute with its neighboring country.
2. Karabakh Republic, the majority of which are Armenians, has the same susceptibility.
3. Armenia's western neighbor Turkey, with its unpredictable behavior in West Asian crises, has shown that it is ready to do anything, from shooting down the Russian bomber over Syria and sending troops to northern Iraq to helping ISIS sell its smuggled oil, to secure its interests. This issue is a warning sign for Armenia which has tense relations with Turkey because Ankara may chooses to use the Islamist extremism play card to press crisis inside Armenia.
4. Weakness as well as its smallness could possibly make Armenia's friends, namely Iran and Russia, underestimate it and thus leave it alone in the encirclement of its extremist enemies.
This type of looking to the region's issues drives Armenia to feel a need for Russia and Iran more than ever. The same need is exchanged between Iran and Russia. Expansion of crisis to southern Caucasus with all forms could result in further susceptibility of both Iran and Russia, and regional insecurity in northwestern Iran and southwestern Russia would demand heavy costs to restore stability. It also could seriously raise the danger of extremism among Russia's Muslims. The reason for such a claim is that currently a large number of Caucasus and Russia's Muslims have joined the terror group ISIS and the possibility of return of these terrorists is strengthened, leading to intensified insecurity once the ISIS' crisis spills over to the region. On the other hand, eruption of any insecurity in Iran's northeastern borders could pave the way for Azerbaijan's pan-Turkists to extensively promote their ideology in the Iranian Turkish-populated provinces, making the situations critical there. Additionally, the largest danger posed by ISIS' moving into Caucasus region is provoking the Armenian Christians to form their own radical Christian groups to confront the Islamic extremism. Such a hypothesis would see upgrade of conflict to an interfaith conflict as definite, which would involve more players and bring forth high costs. So it sees necessary the curbing of the crisis and holding bilateral collaboration between Iran and Russia in order to watch out Caucasus' stability. Meanwhile, Iran's maintaining of ties with Armenia as a friend country, in addition to providing Iran with investment and cooperation opportunities in post-sanctions era, could facilitate Iran's presence in Caucasus region and consequently further control of the regional conditions.
