Alwaght- Pakistan's developments and dismissal of the prime minister for many analysts proved a surprise. Imran Khan argues that his ouster was the result of a foreign plot hatched by the White House, while his opponents accuse him of incompetence.
Alwaght has talked to Ismail Baqeri, an Iranian expert of Pakistan and Afghanistan affairs, asking him about what is behind recent Pakistani crisis.
Alwaght: Why has the parliament removed Imran Khan? What is the role of the army in his removal?
Baqeri: Imran Khan was elected as prime minister by the army support. He was the most consonant PM with the army in the home and foreign policy. The previous Pakistani PMs, such as Nawaz Sharif, took an approach different from that of the military, and the unilateral entry into negotiations with India and the development of relations with New Delhi in previous periods did not appeal to the army. India is the red line of the Pakistani military, and the dispute between India and Pakistan, especially over border issues, Kashmir, nuclear rivalries, and conflict of policy in Afghanistan have led to very deep differences between the two neighbors. It was due to this difference of views that the army overthrew Sharif's government through popular protests, but Imran Khan's government had a good alignment with the army. Imran Khan's dismissal was because the two opposition parties of Muslim League and Pakistan Peoples Party argued that the government of Imran came to power through fraud and that it could not solve economic problems, especially unemployment and energy shortages.
Although some voices suggested that Imran Khan acted independent of the army institution and deals with China and his trip to Moscow in the first day of Ukraine war, which many took it a sign of support to the Kremlin campaign, were somehow his own decisions, the fact is that the army in any way was behind his ouster. So, the army has always had a stealth role in the political developments and Imran Khan fell victim to its game designed to wrest privileges from the US and the West amid fast-moving global development. In other words, the army institution wanted to send a message, telling the West that the overall Pakistani policy was not a pivot to China and Russia. It is worth mentioning that the Americans strongly opposed Imran Khan who beside China and Russia held close ties also to Iran.
Alwaght: How do the public view Imran Khan ouster?
Baqeri: In Pakistan, the public view can be traced with regard to their support to the parties as they have played an influential role over the past 75 years. The governments have traditionally been exchanged between the two deep-rooted parties of Muslim League and Pakistan Peoples Party. The only party that managed to harvest the majority, of course with the help of the army, was Tahreek-e-Insaf from Sarhad, or formerly Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2018. So, we should weigh the public view with regard to the support for parties. The Muslim League in Punjab has more than 60 percent of Pakistan's population support, and the Peoples Party's support base accounts for 20 percent of population. And only Pashtuns and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, which are not aligned with the army, support the Tahreek-e-Insaf. Of course, Imran Khan's policy of fighting corruption and poverty, eliminating unemployment, and other characteristics of him has caused him to make supporters among other ethnic groups like Punjabi, Sindhi, Brahui people. Although public opinion is managed by parties, the military, on the other hand, plays an important role in controlling public opinion through the management of the media. Many media outlets are owned by the Pakistani military.
Alwaght: What was the US role and why does Imran Khan see Washington behind his dismissal?
Baqeri: Since 1947 and independence of Pakistan, Britain has always had a role in Pakistan's developments. Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the army's intelligence agency, was founded by a British general named Robert Cawthome. ISI, as an institution within the Pakistani military, is enormously influential in decision-making. The ISI itself is under the influence of Britain and then the United States. Governments are often dismissed for allegations such as corruption, inefficiency, the spread of political or economic problems. The previous government was ousted for a series of economic charges and corruption cases, including the Panama Papers. Imran Khan was in coordination with the army in his relations with China, Russia, and other states and certainly the army was aware of the approach of his government and even coordinated with it. However, it seems that the Pakistani political system and the army are following a complicated game in the region and Imran Khan was sacrificed by the army to get privileges from the United States.
Imran Khan was the most consonant PM with the army and the latter felt that he should also be aligned with the Americans in the current conditions. Imran Khan was the right person at the time of American talks with the Taliban in Qatar, but now it looks like the military has decided to start another game in the region in the coming months, given the developments in Afghanistan and the threat from the Pakistani Taliban and for the sake of the US aids attraction. This approach will become clear in the coming months. The Pakistani army chief has stated that he is seeking to fight terrorism, which is likely to be aimed at countering the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and possibly aligning the Pakistani military with new American policies in the region and Afghanistan.
Alwaght: Who are the choices after Imran Khan and should we expect a change in Islamabad foreign policy after Imran Khan?
Baqeri: Having in mind that Muslim League has the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, Shahbaz Sharif and then Imran Khan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmoud Qoreshi, both with close relation to the army and ISI, are the likeliest options. The brother of ex-PM Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz, is more likely to assume the post, however. After Imran Khan, the Pakistani home and foreign policy are not expected to change because they are determined by the army and departureof one person cannot change it. At the end, we should say that it is the army that decides India, Kashmir, the US, Russia, China, Iran, and the Taliban policy. It has managed to advance a principal policy in Pakistan and with Imran Khan departure we should not expect drastic charges, though after him we may witness some occurrences in the region.
