Alwaght- For a set of reasons, Ukraine crisis is the newest to the states rose from the ashes of the Soviet Union republics. It is more serious than the one caused by the Russian-Georgian war of 2008, the implications of which were limited. It has brought serious West-Russia face-off, and meanwhile the Central Asian states, concerned about impacts of the confrontation, are watching the conflict closely.
Central Asia watching Ukraine war warily
The post-Soviet Central Asian republics, as Russia's backyard, have always had strategic relations with Moscow since the break-up of the Soviet Union. But despite strategic partnership with the Kremlin, none of the them has voiced strong support to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and have so far refused to recognize the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that were recognized by Russia as independent republics.
Even though Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) as a military bloc in the Moscow-led sphere, they simply abstained in the face of Wednesday's UN General Assembly resolution. Uzbekistan, which has extensive economic and military cooperation with Russia, refused to vote against the anti-Russian resolution.
There are also unconfirmed news reports that Kazakhstan has turned down a request from Russia to send forces to Ukraine in the past few days.
Also, while President Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan was the only West Asian leader that throw explicit backing behind Moscow by a Facebook post suggesting that the incompliance with Minsk Agreement was the reason behind Russian forces deployment to Donbas and that such action was "necessary to protect Donbas people", a statement issued by his foreign ministry on Ukraine situation proved more neural than Japarov's open support Russia. The statement underscored the Russian-Ukrainian historical relations and called for dialogue to settle the dispute peacefully.
The outcome of a phone conversation between Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is unclear, on the other hand. After the conversation, Kremlin published a statement saying that Mirziyoyev supported the Russian campaign in Ukraine. A day later, the statement was corrected by Uzbek president's press office, suggesting that Tashkent was neutral and supported international norms priority for de-escalation.
However, the positions of Central Asian countries are way away from those of the West, and there is a general perception among them that Russia is protecting its national interests in Ukraine and that NATO's eastward expansion provided a catalyst for the crisis.
For example, during a virtual meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on February 28, Central Asian foreign ministers refused to affirm Washington's condemnation of Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Economic and security effects of Ukraine conflict for Central Asian states
The escalation of the crisis in Ukraine and the start of Russian military operations in that country have been the source of various concerns for Central Asian countries, the negative economic and security impact of which should be seen the reason for their conservative view to Moscow's military action against Kiev.
Economically speaking, the Western sanctions on Moscow would have impacts on these countries. The labor force of these countries in Russia and the remittances that the workers send to their families are a major concern. More than 3 million Uzbek, 1.6 million Kyrgyz, and 620,000 Kazakh nationals work in Russia, say official figures. Simply put, one in 10 citizens of these three countries works in Russia. World Bank data show that remittances from Russia account for about a third of Tajikistan, 28 percent for Kyrgyzstan, and more than 12 percent of Uzbekistan GDP.
The economic fallout of this crisis will be felt especially in Tajikistan. About a third of the country's economy relies on remittances sent home by migrant workers earning ruble, Russian national currency. Last week, the value of the Tajikistani somoni fell by 15 percent against the ruble. In the close neighborhood of Central Asia, there is no other economy than Russia that can attract so many migrant workers.
This is not the first time Central Asian immigrants have found themselves under pressure in geopolitical battles between Russia and the West. Washington's sanctions imposed on Moscow halved Tajikistan's remittances between 2013 and 2016. The figure fell to about 30 percent for Uzbekistan and 25 percent for Kyrgyzstan in one year.
On February 28, Russian central bank banned the transfer of dollar by foreigners out of Russia. Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan rely heavily on labor remittances sent home by migrant workers in Russia. Pressure on the ruble, banking restrictions on foreigners and, in the long run, the shrinking labor market in Russia will have a profound economic impact on Central Asian states.
Russian investment projects in these countries, financed by banks targeted by Western sanctions, should be canceled. Exports to Europe via Russia and oil and gas sales of these states may also be affected if the energy sector is slapped by Western sanctions.
In Kazakhstan, despite central bank injecting $137 million on the fears of war, national currency fell 13 percent against dollar upon reports of beginning of the Russian bombardment of Ukraine. To curb the inflation, the central bank raised the interest rates from 10.25 to 13.5 on February 24.
Kyrgyzstan experienced similar situation. Its national currency some dropped to 95 against the US dollar, down from 84. The finance ministry immediately banned dollar sales by banks and many exchanges were closed down.
In addition to the economic dimension, the West Asian states are concerned about security aspects of Western-Russian confrontation expansion.
Before Ukraine crisis, Central Asian countries experienced the consequences of the withdrawal of the US and NATO from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban marked a major transformation in the Central Asian security environment.
With the Russian-Western confrontation keeping unfolding after Ukrainian invasion, collective efforts to create stability in Afghanistan would be certainly more difficult.
All these issues push the Central Asian states to adopt a multi-faceted foreign policy especially in addressing the Ukrainian crisis, despite accepting Russian foothold in the security and economic aspects of their life. It is important for them to have balanced ties with Russia, China, and the US in the long run, as they seek to persuade Moscow to find a solution to the crisis.
