Alwaght- Over the past two weeks, sporadic clashes have again started in East Ukraine, while tensions had subsided temporarily with the Minsk Treaty. Recent developments indicate that the intensity of the conflicts is likely to increase, and both sides will again accuse each other of violating the peace treaty.
It is reported that clashes broke out between the separatists and Kyiv forces to seize control of a key highway which links Mariupol to Donetsk. Most of the highway is currently under the control of pro-Kiev military units. The seizure of this highway will potentially enable the separatists to intensify their campaign to wrest control over Mariupol.
Whatever the reason is, it is important that agreements between Kyiv and the separatists cannot be trusted anymore, even in the future. According to statistics, more than a dozen military forces and civilians were killed or wounded during the recent missile and artillery attacks.
Minsk Peace Treaty was signed on 11 February 2015, with the presence of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, to reduce the intensity of the conflict between the Ukrainian and pro-Russian separatists.
Official and unofficial positions on increasing conflicts
Belarusian President: Alexander Lukashenko described the global situation as complex and reiterated that Ukrainian crisis is a global one. He believes that the crisis in Ukraine is provoked by both internal and international incentives.
European Union: The EU has declared that escalation of the conflict in the government-controlled areas in the East Ukraine is an instance of violation of the "Minsk Peace Treaty". In a statement the EU put emphasis on full implementation of the Minsk Treaty, and declared the first step to achieve a breakthrough in this respect is to maintain the ceasefire and withdraw the heavy weaponry from the frontline.
US officials: the US officials and research institutes affiliated with the US administration and security services that have had a strong role in Ukraine's domestic developments, in their new position have asked both sides to stop the tensions. They have asked for holding further talks with the Russian government to somehow have consultations with the Russians.
Russian officials: The Russian officials believe the clashes broke out due to other party's provocative actions, they invited both sides to respect the ceasefire and the Minsk Treaty. The Russians have officially denied providing the separatists with troops and military aids.
Ukrainian public opinion:
In general, the Ukrainian people are statistically divided into two categories: pro-East and pro-West. According to survey results of global institutions which at best can show 50% of the reality, the eastern half of Ukraine is pro-Russian in which average age is over 30 years, and the western half is pro-West in which most of the residents are youth.
The important point is the fact that the root cause of this trends, regardless of gender, identity and race is the economic problems of the people of this land that encouraged the West to put pressure on its eastern rival and seize the backyard of the eastern superpower with dollar injection operations and started expanding its hegemony in the region. Accordingly, the west changed the artificial movement of people into a civil war and eventually led Ukraine into the abyss of poverty and economic instability to the extent that in less than a year, the value of its currency fell to one fifth of its previous value.
And finally, what we can conclude about developments in Ukraine over the last year, is that Ukraine needs to import energy from Russia; besides, it is a route for energy transport to Europe. The Russians strongly care about the geopolitical issues and are not willing to limit their access to regional water, because one of the main bases of Russian naval forces is located in the disputed area.
The Ukrainian people have come to the conclusion that Russia is not willing to easily lose its backyard. As the Ukrainian common people put it: "as long as Putin is alive, these conditions will persist". The Ukrainians have come to believe that their situation was much better in the time before tensions, and it will not improve with joining the European Union. However, it should be noted that the situation in Ukraine was better only when parties were less active in the region, and as long as the parties have a greater role in the country without taking public opinion into account, the military conflicts will continue at least for the next five years.
