Alwaght- Among the world's hot spots, Kashmir and Himalaya regions have seen the biggest number of wars and conflicts in the contemporary history. Although over the past 6 decades tensions between India and Pakistan have several times escalated, they have winded down shortly later. The relations of the two neighbors have gone critical afresh in recent weeks, with war looking close. The tensions boiled over when last month armed men killed 26 Hindu civilians in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Indian officials said that a probe reveled "clear complicity of Pakistan-based elements" in the attack. An Indian military attack ensued. But Islamabad categorically rejected New Delhi allegations. That attack led to the downgrading of diplomatic relations, border closures, visa cancellations and the suspension of a key water treaty between the two countries, and the exchange of fire began two days later. Pakistan also warned last week that an Indian attack was imminent.
India's missile attack
On Tuesday night, India carried out a series of precision strikes against what it called “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. India has dubbed the operation “Operation Sindoor.” The name is loaded with symbolism for India. Sindoor is the Indian name for the powder that married Hindu women apply to their faces and, according to tradition, is no longer used when they become widows. The name of India’s latest operation against Pakistan appears to be a code name for revenge, in memory of the women who were widowed in last month’s Kashmir terror attack. India insists that its strikes have been “focused, measured and non-esclatory in nature,” targeting specific locations and avoiding civilian casualties. But Pakistan has a different story. Either way, tensions are now inflaming in the Indian Subcontinent.
What's next scenario?
The Pakistani military has said that Indian missile strikes targeted mosques and killed civilians. At least 26 people, including a child, were killed in the attacks.
India’s heavy-handed missile response to Pakistan after the terrorist attacks in Kashmir has surprised many. Previous Indian attacks have focused on the border areas and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, but this time, the latest attack has spread about 100 kilometers inside Pakistan – and outside Kashmir. In fact, India’s missile attacks have reached beyond the disputed territory in Kashmir and into Pakistan’s Punjab province. This missile attack outside Kashmir will be accompanied by further complications and may greatly expand the scope of the Kashmir crisis. War between India and Pakistan has always been one of the nightmares in the eyes of geopolitical experts, and given the high intensity of this possible war, all parties outside India and Pakistan have always warned about it.
The situation is still developing and now many things depend on how Pakistan will react further. If we take as a basis the past behavior and actions of the two countries, the current escalation is likely to remain limited, with both countries preferring to respond to each other with short, targeted attacks rather than full-scale war. Over the past decade, conflicts between India and Pakistan have usually been short-lived and carefully managed to keep the situation from spiraling out of control. But for now, the tone on both sides remains sharp, and neither side seems eager to be the first to back down. At the same time, Islamabad has promised a strong response to India. Pakistan’s statement in response to the latest Indian attack said that the Indian attacks were “an act of war” and would be met with “retaliation at a time and place of our choosing.” Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif also warned in an interview with Bloomberg that “as long as we are being attacked... we have to defend ourselves.” At the same time, the Pakistani defense minister said his country was willing to “end this tension” — if India backed down.
Indians welcome the operation
Indian missile strikes deep into Pakistan received national reception and very well built strong image of the country's rather hardline Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Indian government's opposition, along with members of the Modi government, have praised the missile strikes on Pakistan. India's main opposition party has said it is "very proud" of the military. The defense ministry, citing a possible public inclination for a stronger response to Pakistan, said it "has shown great restraint in its choice of targets and method of execution, and a stronger response may be possible if necessary."
World reactions
The world is watching the tense situation as the two nuclear-armed neighbours now eye each other and brag about a full-scale war, although some world leaders are trying to prevent further escalation. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also called for “restraint”, warning that “the world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan.” US President Donald Trump has called the escalation “shameful” and expressed hope that the clashes will end “very quickly”. China, Pakistan’s largest international investor and a border dispute partner, has urged both sides to exercise restraint.
People of two countries bracing for war
People of the two countries are bracing for the worst, a sign of how serious the situation has developed. Families across Pakistani-controlled Kashmir have been strengthening their homes and finalizing evacuation plans from some areas in recent days. Hospitals in Pakistani Kashmir have also stocked up on essential medicines and students have been given first aid training.
India on the other hand, held its first nationwide civil defense drill on Wednesday night. The drill, last conducted in 1971, involves practicing a power blackout, conducting evacuation drills and training civilians to respond to hostile attacks.
Heart of crisis
In the current crisis between India and Pakistan a several-decade dispute over Kashmir as one of the world's most militarized and instable regions lies. The dispute dates back to 1947, when British-ruled India was divided into India and Pakistan, but the status of Kashmir remained undecided and the two countries went to war over its control. A UN-brokered ceasefire in 1949 established the Line of Control, dividing the region between Indian and Pakistani control. Since then, the two countries have fought several more wars over this disputed region.
India accuses Pakistan of arming and training militants to inflame insecurity and separatism, especially since the first Kashmir rebellion in the 1990s. However, Islamabad rejects the claims, saying that it only supports diplomatically and spiritually the Kashmiris that seek autonomy.
In recent years India's Modi has sought to establish specific conditions in Kashmir, especially after his government revoked special state of autonomy of Kashmir in 2019. There has been international pressure on both sides to resolve the issue bilaterally, but geopolitical risks and domestic politics often make de-escalation far from reach and this is because negotiation over Kashmir is regarded as a sign of national weakness and retreat for both India and Pakistan and therefore no government in New Delhi or Islamabad has ever been inclined to negotiate the disputed region.
