Alwaght - Over last month, political and Salafi activities reflected in new political developments in Armenia and ISIS threats to Central Asia have triggered the reaction of the Russian authorities:
Fear over the ISIS and Salafi movements
In the past few months in northern and northeastern provinces of Afghanistan, compared to previous years, there have been much more foreign terrorists. Thousands of terrorists from Chechen, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and the local Taliban terrorists are actively present in Faryab, Sar-e Pol, Kunduz, Jawzjan, Samangan and the areas bordering Central Asia (mainly the six provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Balkh, Jowzjan, Faryab and Badghis). Besides, foreign insurgents such as Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Chechen fighters and Tajik terrorist groups in the region have been seen in some areas bordering with Central Asian countries carrying the black flags of ISIS.
Accordingly, Russia believes that ISIS and its advocates constitute a real threat to Central Asian countries. In Turkmenistan-Afghanistan border and also in Afghanistan-Tajikistan border areas, ISIS terrorists were seen carrying their black flags. Over the past year, regional and international media have reported that some Caucasus citizens from Central Asia were seen among ISIS terrorists in Iraq and Syria. For example, 'Nusrat Nazarov' was directing the Tajik branch of ISIS in Syria, and 'Golmorad Halimov', the former commander of the special police forces of Tajikistan's interior ministry defected to join the ISIS whose news shocked the Tajik government and people. Although there is no precise information about the number of citizens from Central Asia and Caucasus who have joined ISIS terrorist group, their growing presence in Syria and Iraq as well as their last presence near the Central Asian borders of Russia has more than ever aroused Russia's concerns over the issue. The Russian authorities and leaders have repeatedly pointed to this issue. From this perspective, the terrorists recruited in countries of Central Asia may be used for operations in the area, and will not be sent to Syria or Iraq. Given that ISIS has currently been sending threatening messages over the internet to Central Asian countries, Moscow believes that extremist Islamists are now more likely to do terrorist acts in these countries.
In fact, ISIS hazard in Central Asia is a new factor that develops based on spreading the extremism from Afghanistan, and continues to borders of Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. In this process, ISIS aims to make its way into areas surrounding Afghanistan, Central Asia (Russia) and Xinjiang. In this analysis, the Russians conclude that based on the strategies of international politics, the presence of Central Asian citizens in ISIS and their activities in northern Afghanistan could pave the way for fulfilment of geopolitical objectives of the US in Central Asia near the southern borders of Russia. In other words, due to the proximity of northern Afghanistan to Central Asia, the insecurity in northern Afghanistan could be explained with regard to a wide range of strategies of the West and US towards Russia and Central Asia. Therefore undermining the security of Russia and its neighbors is one of the preferences of Western and Arab countries which would be accelerated through resorting to ISIS and other Extremist groups.
Fear over color revolutions
Not long ago in Tajikistan, a Tajik Journal 'the World' discussed 'Color Revolutions through creating chaos in the third world countries, including Central Asia'. In addition, in recent developments in Armenia, the Russian media repeatedly warned against the issue. From this perspective, Russia is the main geopolitical rival of the West. As a result, Central Asia and the Caucasus as Russia's backyard could be the target of Color Revolution. In fact, totalitarian regimes in such countries due to various weaknesses, are likely to suffer heavy damage from the West oriented color revolutions. By the same token, during the protest in Armenia against rising electricity prices, Russian media discussed the probability of color revolution in Armenia. As the head of the International Committee of the Russian Federation stated the unrest in Armenia is a sign of a Color Revolution and some Russian legislators predicted that street protests in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, are the first stage of a Color Revolution similar to those staged in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. In the eyes of the Kremlin, all the Color Revolutions were staged according to the same scenario and Armenia is not immune from it. Some analysts believe the public protests in the capital of Armenia are rooted in the widespread poverty, turmoil and deteriorating economic conditions, job insecurity and massive unemployment. However, Moscow and its leaders believe that the US policy and Washington's attitudes towards the recent incidents in Armenia (excessive use of violence, the necessity of conducting a full government investigation into the excessive use of force by the police) and the approach of the US embassy in Armenia (asking government and protesters to show restraint) together with the organizations leading the protests, are manifestations of another color revolution in Armenia. The US adopted this policy, while Armenia and Russian are strategic members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Eurasian Customs Union (EACU), and Russia is the largest trading partner of Armenia, and more than two million Armenian diaspora live in Russia. From this perspective, the US wants Russia to be marginalized, weakened and isolated among the united countries of the region.
Conclusion
Adopting domestic, regional and international policies, Russia has tried to stand against ISIS, its advocates, and the policies that might lead to Color Revolutions in the CIS. Accordingly, Russia makes attempts to protect Central Asian countries against the ISIS and color revolution through taking some measures which include: supporting the traditional Islam, providing its regional allies with necessary equipment, preventing the fund raising and aids of Arabic and Western communities and intelligence agencies, ensuring a greater security coordination with countries such as Afghanistan, providing organizations such as the CSTO and Shanghai with a new perspective on the movement of extremists groups, and conducting war games in the border areas with Afghanistan. Considering the dramatic devaluation of Armenian Dram over the last year and the recent suspicious protests, Russia's recent decision to grant a $ 200 million loan to Armenia for the development and updating of its weapons and in addition to other concessions show that Moscow does not wish the protesters go beyond the social demands and move towards unknown political objectives such as resignation of the government and the color revolution in the most important base of Moscow in the South Caucasus.
