Alwaght- Punjab’s Chief Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Saudi Arabia on December 28 at the invitation of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Saudis were in such a hurry to meet the Pakistani politicians that they sent a private jet to carry the invitees to Riyadh. Two days later, the ousted Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif also traveled to the kingdom.
Trip of Sharif who was accompanied with Pakistani cabinet’s ministers is shrouded in mystery for a set of reasons. There are a lot of speculations swirling about this Nawaz Sharif and his brother’s Riyadh trip which is described as personal, which means no official discussions have been on the agenda, nor have any details come to surface. Pakistan’s former President Asif Ali Zardari has expressed concerns over the drives behind the trip, giving rise to the idea that the visit is significant nationally. The reasons for the visit can be examined from three internal, regional, and international aspects.
Internal drives
When it comes to home matters, many analysts link the trip to parliamentary elections, scheduled to be held on July 15, and the emerging political alliances in the country. Certainly, Nawaz Sharif’s party, Pakistan Muslim League (PML), needs the Riyadh’s bankrolling if it wants to win the National Assembly election. In case of victory, the PML will nominate Shehbaz Sharif for the post of premier. Some less influential parties in the county as Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf, led by Imran Khan, and Awami National Party after ousting of Nawaz Sharif following Panama Papers scandal pressed for a snap election, but an agreement between the PML and Pakistan Peoples Party made the country steer clear of early election.
Nawaz Sharif also struggles for asylum in Saudi Arabia to escape the present troubles, including the legal prosecution in relation to financial corruption. Now, there is an increasing possibility that Sharif signs a deal with the country’s parties and leaves the country. He appointed his brother Shehbaz as leader of the PML less than a month ago. This means that in case of winning the July election, Shehbaz will become a PM. Nawaz, the media reported, has retired from politics.
Nawaz's only escapeway to avoid legal is leaving the country. If he is sent to exile, odds are that he will pick Saudi Arabia for new life. In December 2000, he abandoned the country to Saudi Arabia to start a new life in exile in the Persian Gulf kingdom, a move apparently helped him evade execution by Pervez Musharraf, who led a military coup in the country. And now that the Pakistani judiciary is pressing to prosecute him for corruption charges, his friends are seeking to save him from a new predicament. Odds are that one of the cases of discussion with the Saudi officials is to find a way for life in exile in case he is banished by a court ruling or if he decides to leave the country.
Definitely, the Riyadh trip will push the home political parties into a new period of alliance making. After all, Nawaz is hit by corruption charges in Panama Paper's probe that links his children to offshore companies. And Shehbaz is accused by the Pakistani Awami Party of killing the people in 2014 Model Town, Lahore. Many analysts argue that the trip to Saudi Arabia is to complete the replacement process of Shehbaz, who needs the Saudi aids once he takes the rule in the country.
Regional drives
Another drive behind the Sharifs' trip to Riyadh is related to such important cases as Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain. For three years, Saudi Arabia has been relentlessly bombing neighboring the Yemen cities where people are defenselessly living. But it has yet to reach any of its stated goals as it faces unwavering resistance to its aggression. The Yemeni forces not only have been defending their country but also dealt several blows to Al Saud rulers as they have cultivated capabilities to fire rockets into Saudi Arabia. Yemen is not the only place where the Saudis have met their failure. Their policy in Syria and Iraq, two of the regional states hit by ISIS terrorism, also proved to be a real fiasco. All of these losses sent the Saudi rulers to ally with the Israeli regime. They are now striving after Arab-Israeli diplomatic normalization. All of these matters were expected to find a place in the Saudi leaders' talks with the Sharifs, as Riyadh is in desperate need to find patrons to its regional agenda.
International drives
From an international point of view, Sharif brothers' visit to Saudi Arabia can be linked to the new US strategy in Afghanistan and the so-called counterterror war. The American President Donald Trump has highlighted the need to fight terrorism in Afghanistan using new methods with a highly firm determination. He in his new strategy accused Islamabad of not being serious in combating terrorism. He, furthermore, lashed out at Pakistan for what he called harboring the terrorists. Trump called on the Pakistani leaders to cleanse “safe havens” in their country of the militant fighters.
Last week, the American Vice-President Mike Pence traveled to Afghanistan. Addressing the American troops serving in the war-devastated country, Pence echoed Trump's anti-Islamabad accusations. He highlighted the Trump administration's resolution to apply the new strategy, which encourages India to specifically engage in alliance with Afghanistan to secure a role as a regional actor. New Delhi is a main regional rival to Islamabad, and the two came to the blows several times over the disputed Kashmir.
Meanwhile, China, another actor with sensitivities to what is going on next to its borders, has come against the new American strategy which disposes of Islamabad as an ally. Beijing on December 26, hosted a meeting of the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Afghanistan to improve the two neighbors' relationship.
Saudi Arabia, a party with influence in Pakistan, has invited Sharif brothers in a bid to manipulate the new developments and coordinate its stances with the PML to come out with a united position in dealing with Trump strategy. The new strategy also drew Pakistani reactions and pushed Pakistan to get closer to Iran. The two countries' officials have recently held more than one meeting to discuss cooperation. Pakistan also on December 24 hosted a six-nation parliament speakers' conference on regional cooperation and counterterrorism, attended by China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Afghanistan. The meeting was considered a sort of alliance-making effort by Islamabad.
Just in past few days, Trump reiterated anti-Islamabad charges, once again tweeting that Pakistan is harboring the terrorists.
“They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”, Trump tweeted on Monday of Pakistan.
He, at the same time, called on Pakistan to cooperate to fight the radical militant groups, beside warning that he will cut aids to Islamabad. But the US not only is not fighting in Afghanistan honestly but also is massively backing the takfiri terrorists.
Certainly, talking these issues with Saudi Arabia is important for Nawaz Sharif and bin Salman. Riyadh is worried to see Pakistan coming under US strains. Islamabad is a significant regional ally to Riyadh whose leaders never want to see Pakistan impaired.
