Alwaght- Uzbekistan held a constitutional reform referendum on Sunday and millions turned out to have their say on the upcoming changes. The Central Election Commission announced on Monday that 84.54 percent of eligible voters, who are more than 16.5 million, participated in the referendum, of which 90.21 percent showed their support for the new constitution. According to the amendments to the country’s constitution, the presidential term will be increased from 5 to 7 years, and Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the current president, can retain his post for two more terms.
Accordingly, the 65-year-old Mirziyoyev, who assumed the power in 2016 following the death of President Islam Karimov, can remain in power until 2040 if he wins the next two elections. Mirziyoyev’s tern will end in 2026, and it seems that these reforms will be made for longer presidency.
After release of the results, the president held that the review and extensive changes in the constitution will improve the governance and the quality of life of the people in this landlocked country. Therefore, the constitutional referendum, which is ostensibly aimed at forsaking the political structures left over from the Soviet Union, is the biggest test of Mirziyoyev’s political life to show whether he will really do what he promised.
The referendum also eyes further human rights and freedoms, as well as social and administrative reform. Under the new constitution, the norms related to the government’s social obligations, including the provision of rights, are tripled, and freedom and human rights are stated as the highest goal of the government. It is also predicted that the number of members of the Senate, or the upper house, be cut to 65 from 100.
The new constitution also seeks to transfer some duties and powers of the president to the parliament. On March 10, the Legislative Assembly, or lower house, approved the draft law on new articles to the constitution, and then the Senate approved and adopted it. The Secretary-General of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Sergey Lebedev at the country’s press center told foreign and local journalists that the “referendum on the amendment of the Constitution of Uzbekistan was held very calmly, transparently, and according to democratic standards. The delegation OF CIS observers of visited 90 referendum stations. Necessary conditions were provided in all fields.”
383 foreign observers and 44,225 domestic observers watched the voting process. In order to implement the constitutional referendum, half of the people must participate in it. Therefore, with the large presence of Uzbeks, the path for the government has been paved.
With a population of 35 million, Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populous country, and the people’s approval of the constitutional amendments shows that the president has the support of the majority of his nation, something encouraging to him in the path of major political and economic policies.
Though 90 percent of the people voted affirmatively for the constitutional reforms, reports show that the referendum was not held in a democratic atmosphere. An Uzbek government journalist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told AFP that the government had asked the media to cover the referendum and the role of the president well, and that news and criticism against the reforms had been heavily censored. In general, unbiased and balanced information were not provided to the voters, the journalist further said. Despite the fact that in recent years Uzbekistan witnessed openess to criticism against the government, the censorship remains rife.
Concentration or de-concentration of power?
The president argues that the constitutional reforms are in the interest of the nation, but the history of three decades of politics in Central Asian countries, and especially Uzbekistan in recent years, demonstrates that the rights and freedoms of the people are not respected much and the violation of the rights of the Uzbeks continues, with opposition groups denied room to show off power.
Uzbek officials believe that amending two-thirds of the constitution will allow the establishment of democracy and the improvement of the living standards of the people, but observers believe that Mirziyoyev is seeking further power through these changes.
Observers maintain that the president is trying to free himself from the legacy of his predecessor and put up an independent face with this referendum. Mirziyoyev was prime minister for 13 years under Karimov and since he assumed presidency, he has tried to present a progressive and democratic face.
Under Karimov, Uzbekistan was considered as one of the most repressive countries in the region, but Mirziyoyev plans to prove with these changes that the country under him prioritizes freedom and human rights. The recent reforms emphasize that all citizens can run for president, and this issue can be considered as a safety valve encouraging the participation of people in the political structure and make a prelude to prevent civil opposition, but it is still ambiguous whether all citizens can pass the qualification filters of the government or this granted right will remain limited only to registration in the election process.
Apart from the assurances of the Uzbek officials about introducing changes to political and social structures, such referendums are usually carried out with the aim of stabilizing the authoritarianism in the countries, and such an intention can be seen in Uzbekistan, though under the coat of democracy. Therefore, the extension of the presidential term, which has become a common practice in Central Asian countries, allows the leaders of these countries to maintain their power for a long time.
Though the constitution of Uzbekistan contains mechanisms for the involvement of opposition parties in politics, parties and other political-religious organizations do not enjoy freedom in this country in practice, and since the beginning of independence in 1991, many opposition leaders have been marginalized to solidify the foundations of Karimov’s dictatorship. Even now, after three decades of Uzbekistan independence, the freedom of the press is not favorable and the parties are allowed to act only as long as they do not conflict with the government policies. Actually, all parties are submissive to the government and real opposition is not allowed to challenge the government.
In July 2020, the government severely suppressed popular protests at its decision to strip autonomy of Karakalpakstan and killed and injured tens of protesters. The president announced state of emergency for a just a year in the region but he maintains it up to now.
Uzbekistan’s political prospects
Experience of referendums in Central Asian republics demonstrates that a majority of people do not oppose such procedures, and the more positive popular voters, the higher improvement of democracy standards, and Uzbekistan referendum results are no exception. But serious progress and freedom are far from embracing the society in the short term, and it remains to see what prospects Uzbekistan has ahead.
Examination of governance structures in the Central Asian republics indicates that there is no circulation of elites in these countries and only people in the orbit of power in the last three decades have managed to make their way to higher political ranks. Since the ruling parties hold power in a monopolized manner, even in some of these countries, such as Turkmenistan, the children replace fathers, and political elites are kept out of the political structure. Though with the concentration of power under new rulers and stepping on the path of the first generation of rulers it is expected that a weak opposition will form in this country, there is no charismatic figure that can challenge the government at the moment.
There is a misthought among Central Asian leaders that implementation of major plans is only possible when it is undertaken by a single person from early to last stages. Inspired by the same thought, Mirziyoyev is pushing to individually conclude the long-term economic plans in the next two decades. This policy denies elites entry to the power structures and runs counter to what the constitution instructs for.
What is unclear yet is that whether Mirziyoyev amended the constitution for the sake of solidification of his rule or he will hand over power to others at the end of his term in 2026. If the first scenario takes places, the process of circulation of off-government-orbit elites will be totally shattered and gradually an atmosphere of frustration will engulf the country.
