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Analysis

Iraq’s Kurdistan Region Domestic Crisis, Impacts on Erbil-Baghdad Ties

Saturday 24 October 2015
Iraq’s Kurdistan Region Domestic Crisis, Impacts on Erbil-Baghdad Ties

Alwaght- The Iraqi Kurdistan region, in past few months, has experienced one of most sensitive and most disputed periods of its political history after 1991. The crisis started when a set of parliamentary disputes over revising the constitution erupted. Conflicts intensified as Masoud Barzani’s term as president of the Kurdistan region expired, deepening gaps between Kurdistan Democratic Party and Movement for Change (Gorran). Kurdish citizens took to the streets, asking for payment of their delayed salaries.

Three significant factors behind the current circumstances in the Kurdish region are as follow:

1. ISIS invasion of the Kurdistan region: The terrorist group’s attack caused a lapse in the Kurdistan’s domestic stability, which is required for the region’s economic growth, trade, and commerce, in a way that the investments of the foreign companies, mostly Turkish companies, were dropped. On the other hand, the Kurdish leaders, due to eruption of the battle with ISIS, were forced to allocate a big portion of the budget to support the Peshmerga forces, consequently, going under the squeezes of a deficit in the region’s financial resources.

2. Increasing disputes with central government: differences between Kurdistan region and Baghdad over the region’s oil sales and the budget have fueled a big financial crisis inside the Kurdish region. Most of the government employees and even the Peshmerga fighters in the fronts battling against ISIS have not received any pay for several months, and they arranged demonstrative gatherings, calling for their delayed salaries to be payed.

3. Presidency Issue: Based on the constitutional rules, and according to the parliamentary agreements reached between the political parties, Masoud Barzani’s term as a president, which had been expanded for two years as a result of a political deal in 2013, expired on August 19, 2015. Serious divides over shifting to a parliamentary system and expanding Barzani’s term sparked between Kurdistan Democratic Party and the region's other four political groups. While the Peshmerga forces are countering ISIS terrorist group threat, rise of tensions between the political parties as well as financial crisis are threatening Kurdistan region’s existence.

However, after August 19, 2015, not only an agreement among the political groups was not reached, but a new wave of disputes was erupted among them. Series of meetings were held between the political parties, but after two months the crisis over the president and the constitution modification remained unsettled. The protracted process of the meetings and more delays in paying the federal and private sector employee’s salaries with the excuse of financial crisis drove the region’s citizens to lose patience. As a result, during the past month there have been peaceful demonstrations by the citizens and employees in Sulaymaniya province, where the five political parties held their meetings. The protesters called for an end to the presidential crisis, as they requested for paying the government employees’ salaries. The situation continued until October 9, 2015, when the protests in Qaladiza town turned violent after the protesters attacked the Iraq’s Kurdistan Democratic Party’s headquarter in the town. The demonstrators’ action was responded by the guards’ attack in which two people were killed and dozens were injured. Following the events, the gaps in the Kurdish region deepened. As a result, disputes between the two major parties, Gorran and Kurdistan Democratic Party, increased, fueling the possibility of dissolution of the coalition government, which had been formed in 2014 after long negotiations between the political groups. The significant issue is the impacts of the Kurdistan region’s internal crisis on the relations with Baghdad’s central government. Actually, the important question is how the October 2015 crisis in Kurdistan would affect the ties between the Kurdish region and the Iraqi central government. It seems that the crisis has prepared for intensification of the Erbil-Baghdad conflicts, and in the upcoming months it would affect the relations of Kurdish politicians with Baghdad officials even more negatively.

There are some reasons to support the claims:

1. Disputes over Budget allocation: As the internal crisis in the Kurdistan region started to ger worse, one issue which received special attention was the central government’s share in the Kurdish region’s budget deficit. Despite the fact that the Iraqi central government have repeatedly emphasized on paying the region’s budget, but the Kurdish politicians have accused Baghdad of refraining from submitting the regional government’s share, which accounts for 17% of the Iraq’s total budget. They argue that if Prime Minister Abadi’s government had paid the region’s monthly budget, such citizen demonstrations over the delayed salaries as well as such a large scale of divides between the conflicting political parties, specifically Gorran and Democratic Party, could not erupt. Therefore, the Kurdish politicians see Baghdad’s approach as one of the major reasons fueling the Kurdistan region’s internal crisis. This factor could appear as a main drive motivating Erbil-Baghdad tensions in the future.

2. Kurdistan regional government bid to reach economic independence: Certainly, with the regional government’s budget deficit and with the region’s budget unpaid by PM Abadi’s government, the Erbil regional government’s strategy would be moving toward an economic independence. During past years, the region’s officials tried to produce and sell oil without the central government’s supervision, an issue causing Baghdad’s concerns and motivating fierce disputes between the two sides. Nechervan Barzani, the Kurdistan’s Prime Minister, in his latest speech asserted that the region’s most significant strategy is to achieve its economic independence. To this end, the Kurdish officials eye touching 700,000 oil barrels daily production capacity to the end of 2015. After the recent internal developments, the Kurdistan regional government resorted to more oil production and selling in order to make up for a growing budget deficit, and at the same time to pacify the demonstrations. The economic independence from Baghdad remains the Kurdish region’s major objective. This issue would be faced by Baghdad’s objection and protest, making way for exacerbating relations between the Kurds with Iraq’s central government.

3. Split between the Kurdish political parties: Another reason which could negatively affect the Erbil government’s ties with the Iraqi central government is the divide existing between Kurdish political parties, which is caused by the Kurdistan region’s domestic crisis. After 2003, the Kurdish political groups, due to the former Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s influence over them, enjoyed a unified position in negotiations with Baghdad’s central government, and in different periods, including in 2005 and 2009, they played a key role in reaching agreements between all Iraqi Political groups with the central government.

At the Time being, however, they are divided into two groups, a group which favors cooperation with the central government, and a group which opposes links with Baghdad. Therefore, under the present conditions, it is hard to see a unified Kurdish front to settle disputes with Iraq’s central government.

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