Alwaght- Despite the fact that the Kurdistan region’s independence referendum insistence drew domestic Kurdish opposite voices, including the “No For Now” movement that declared launching in early August, just few days before the September 25 poll, relatively all of the Kurdish factions stood in a united pro-breakaway front.
Very apparent example was the opposition parties' approval of the vote. Ali Bapir, the leader of the Kurdistan Islamic Party, and Omar Sayyed Ali, the head of Change (Gorran) Movement, expressed support for the referendum in a joint statement, despite their past antipathetic sentiment. After the last Monday plebiscite, the two parties even announced readiness to send back their representatives to the Kurdish regional parliament which was shut down by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)-led government after differences with the opposition parties broke out in October 2015.
All these developments give the idea that due to the significance of independence issue, the Kurdistan's political parties have reached a degree of convergence that keeps them closer. However, it seems that if Kurdish leaders continue to press for separation from Iraq and establish an independent Kurdish state the region's factions cannot stay united for a long time.
The intra-Kurdish harmony at the time is seen by the analysts as provisional and in the near future the discords very likely will show face again among the opposite sides. The competition could go even tougher especially that they will likely lose their place in the Iraqi parliament and so instead of taking on the Arab parties they will spend energy on domestic rivalry, which means more division and escalation.
The prospective Kurdish struggles are expected to erupt in four areas, including:
Struggle over the Kurdistan Regional Government’s presidency
One of the key contentious issues that very likely will cause further complication for the region’s political parties is the presidency of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The region is set to pick a new president in early November. Masoud Barzani's presidency expired in August 2015. The regional parties met in the same year and extended his term for two more years, adding that there was no way he could get second extension.
His additional term expired in August this year. Now he cannot run for president and new successor should be elected. The very important question is that if he will step down from power in the present conditions. After his presidency expiration in 2015, he avoided submitting to the pressures by the opposition parties who challenged his rule under extended period. Even now, he appears to have no intention to leave the office, and there is a notion that one reason for holding the independence referendum was to guarantee his stay in power. To put it differently, he shrugged off heavy waves of criticism and held the poll to raise a political privilege maintaining his grip on power.
Now other party leaders are announcing plans to run for the autonomous region’s highest post. With this in sight, the near future might bear risks of fresh tensions amid Barzani’s firm power hold. Things could get worse with the tribal culture still governing the KDP, and Barzani family identifying themselves as the rightful rulers of Kurdistan as the inheritors of legacy of their father Mullah Mustafa Barzani, an earlier leader of Kurdish separatist movement.
For the Barzani family the circulation of political power makes not much sense. Key party figures rose voice in challenge of Barzani continuation of rule beyond his legal term in office two years ago, but he quietened them who questioned legality of the term extension by offering some privileges. If the region manages to upgrade to a state, the power greed and thus struggle will augment among the party leaders. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan that was once compromised its regional rights on its share in the central government now will have to seek powers on the Kurdish political stage.
November parliamentary election
Along with electing a president in November, the region is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections for new lawmakers. In addition to the traditional five parties of Kurdistan Democratic Party, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Change Movement, Kurdistan Islamic Party, and Kurdistan Islamic Union, two new parties of Coalition for Democracy and Justice, led by the former prime minister of the KRG Barham Ahmed Salih and No to Current Conditions, headed by Shaswar Abdulwahid will participate in the upcoming election.
According to the experts familiar with KRG developments, rise of these two new parties beside already-existing tough rivalry between the traditional parties can inflame the political feuds afresh in the Kurdish region. Having in mind that the referendum has already stirred resounding political spats among the Kurds, the parliamentary elections can prepare the same climate for rejuvenated disputes.
Fighting for economic benefits
The next struggle could be over distributing the economic profits and interests. The opposition parties inside Iraqi Kurdistan have constantly come against domination of two well- armed parties of KDP and PUK over the economic resources of the region, accusing them of bribery and corruption. Even now and after the breakaway vote, oil keeps outflowing for foreign countries and the customs have their regular incomes. Odds are that fresh rifts spark off amid two sides’ financial demands rise. Meanwhile, the common challenge for the whole political parties could be paying the state employees' salaries as well as the heavy expenses of the foreign companies that are in contract with Erbil government and operating in northern Iraq.
Erbil and Sulaimaniyah's old feuds rejuvenation
Another divisive issue could be reappearance of traditional spats between Erbil as capital city of KRG, and Sulaimaniyah, the second major Kurdistan city. Following the foundation of the autonomous regional government, the rival Erbil and Sulaimaniyah went in a dispute that developed into deadly civil war between 1994 and 1998, killing many fighters and civilians from both sides and producing a double-administration government, one based in Erbil and the other in Sulaimaniyah.
Analysts maintain that the rancor remains present between the two bastions like fire under the ashes, and they seek humiliating each other by any chance they get. During the last week referendum, the turnout in Sulaimaniyah was 53 percent compared to higher turnout in Erbil, 78 percent. This possibly will provide the Erbil with pretext to label Sulaimaniyah as traitorous or at best negligent. In response, the Sulaimaniyah people accuse the Erbil leaders of being tribal-cultured. All these issues indicate that once the pro-independence fervor subsides in the next weeks and months, the discords and tensions will come to surface afresh.
