alwaght - The permanent Afghanistan occupation by US and NATO forces was predictable. For western countries, fighting against terrorism, Taliban and Al-Gaeda is not an aim, but an apparatus to achieve their main objectives in West Asia. It seems that US war in Afghanistan or US longest war will be continued even after 2014. Peace, security and stability are not reasons behind Afghanistan occupation by USA. Despite twelve year US war against Taliban, this militia has become stronger in this country. Therefore, Taliban and its probable power in Afghanistan are among the main future possibilities in this country.
As aforementioned, it seems that there are some impressive factors for continuing occupation of Afghanistan according to the security agreement between US and Afghanistan.
1. Afghanistan is in a geostrategic-ally important location. Its political geography covers issues of three important regions i.e. South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia. According to US policy, Afghanistan is needed for controlling the regional superpowers such as China, Russia, India and Iran. It is necessary to mention that Russia and China can be considered as US opponents in next decades. It seems that the United States tries to motivate the regional hardliners such as those who are in Sinkiang province of China, Sistan and Baluchistan province of Iran and Russia. In fact, terrorism in neighboring countries of Afghanistan has directly and indirectly been supported by western countries in particular the United States.
2. To maintain its power in Afghanistan, management of changes in this country including presidential election, peace talks with Taliban, monitoring afghan opposition parties, etc. are needed for US. By delegating security responsibility of Afghanistan to Afghan army, police forces and other opposition groups, US and NATO try to strengthen their supportive role in future administration of Afghanistan. In addition, they try to manage war in Afghanistan and make Afghan security forces to get involved in struggle with Taliban. Accordingly, they can lessen the extent of victimization of their military forces. Therefore, they will convince the public general to let US forces be more in Afghanistan. Since the main volume of criticisms of US policy has been on its military costs in Afghanistan and the fatality of American soldiers, they decreased this objection by delegating security responsibility of Afghanistan to Afghan forces and taking its soldiers into US military bases in this country.
3. Taliban in Afghanistan is a crisis left unsolved. Taliban's viewpoint about peace negotiation in Afghanistan, their conditions for exit of US forces, running fair and free elections, change of Constitution Law and the like indicate that Taliban tries to utilize peace negotiation in Afghanistan as a political leverage. Accordingly, there will not be a stabile peace in this country. Although some of Taliban leaders are free and out of UN black list now, these actions have not convinced Taliban leaders to take part in peace negotiations practically. It seems that the United States wants to empower some groups of Taliban legally in the power structure of Afghanistan's administration. Quetta Shura and the majority of Taliban under Mullah Omar's leadership have strongly disagreed with this US decisions.
4. US tries to achieve its main objectives in this region . US officials believe that there are double standards in Pakistan for acting against terrorism on the one hand and supporting and strengthening Taliban in Afghanistan one the other hand in order to follow its own policy and interest. Today, Pakistan tries to manage the future changes in Afghanistan. Although Pakistan does not play its powerful former role in managing Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it has still its own impressively effective role. It is necessary to mention that Pakistan had main role in disrupting peace negotiations between Mullah Baradar with the government in Kabul. The United States tries to take Taliban to the negotiation table by Pakistan's help voluntarily or even by force in order to bring a minimum peace in Central Asia to achieve its main objectives in this region. In addition, free access to energy resources of Central Asia i.e. Oil & Gas , free access to communicative ways of this country, controlling West Asia in particular issues such as Islamic Revolution, political Islam and publishing American values, etc. can be among US objectives.
It can be concluded that the United States was defeated in Afghanistan over the last twelve years. Therefore, US forces have not increased the available security in Afghanistan. The United States tries to follow its strategic objectives in Central Asia these days. In addition, US mistakes make Taliban more powerful and impressive in Central Asia.
The future changes in Afghanistan, Afghanistan permanent occupation by US forces based on the security agreement, Taliban as an unsolved issue & increasing its activities in this region, interfering & supporting Taliban by Pakistan and the like seem to make a more serious crisis in Afghanistan national security.
In addition, US Permanent Military bases in Afghanistan are against the security agreements in Central Asia and may lead to long-standing clashes in Afghanistan. Accordingly, there would not be a clear image and rosy future for relative conditions of Afghanistan peace and security. Regional convergence, solutions by superpowers of this region, detecting and eradicating the roots of clashes in Afghanistan can be the main solutions for Afghanistan crisis.
