Alwaght- With António Guterres’s second term winding down, the race to succeed him as US secretary-general is entering a critical phase, a contest that could reshape how the world body tackles major international files in the years ahead, from the Gaza war and the Palestine question to occupation and Israel’s conduct.
Guterres steps down at the end of 2026, and his successor takes over on January 1, 2027. Several leading candidates have already emerged, and the Security Council has held its first informal straw poll. In that vote, Rebeca Grynspan, a former Costa Rican vice president who now heads the UN Conference on Trade and Development, came in first with 10 “encourage” votes. She was followed by Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
For Israeli officials, the outcome of this selection process appears to carry especially high stakes.
Why does UN chief election matter for the Israeli regime?
While the UN secretary-general lacks the independent decision-making authority of member states, the office remains one of the most consequential political and diplomatic posts in the international system. He can place crises on the Security Council's agenda, mediate between warring parties, sound the alarm on humanitarian catastrophes, and wield the organization's political and media clout to pressure conflicting sides.
The secretary-general also plays a central role in running the UN bureaucracy and appointing senior officials across the system. That means choosing someone with a distinctly different approach could genuinely shift the organization's political and diplomatic orientation.
At the same time, the selection process ensures that the major powers, especially the five permanent Security Council members, hold decisive sway. Under the existing rules, the final candidate must secure a Council recommendation, which requires at least nine favorable votes and no veto from any permanent member. From there, the General Assembly confirms the appointment.
That is why the race for secretary-general is not really just about the candidates themselves. It is also a theater for back-channel negotiations and influence-peddling among capitals and political groupings around the world.
Israeli anger with Gutrness
For Israel, one reason this election matters so much is its fraught history with Guterres.
Relations between the two sides soured sharply after the Gaza war began in October 2023. Guterres infuriated Israeli officials when he said the October 7 attacks "did not happen in a vacuum." The tensions only escalated from there, over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the fate of UNRWA, the military campaign in the strip, and the role of UN peacekeepers in the region.
The low point came when Israel declared Guterres persona non grata and barred him from entering territory under its control. The UN rejected the move, and the Security Council rallied behind its chief.
Israel also waged an intense campaign against UNRWA, pushing to ban the agency from operating inside its territory, a step that drew international backlash and deepened fears about the future of aid to Palestinians.
Given that backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Tel Aviv is keen on a successor who would strike a different tone, someone, from Israel's perspective, less inclined to criticize its actions.
After the Security Council's first informal straw poll, Israel's UN ambassador made that calculus clear, saying the next secretary-general must confront what he called "institutionalized antisemitism" within parts of the UN system and push the organization to apply equal standards to all members. Those comments leave little doubt: Tel Aviv expects the next UN chief to reset the organization's posture toward Israeli regime.
Grynspan, a sensitive name
Among the current candidates, Rebeca Grynspan has drawn particular attention. She topped the Security Council's first informal straw poll, and if elected, she would make history as both the first woman and the first Jewish person to lead the UN.
Grynspan comes from a Jewish family whose parents fled Europe for Central America after the Holocaust. But that background does not automatically translate into alignment with Israeli policy.
Quite the contrary: the agency she runs, the UN Conference on Trade and Development, has issued multiple reports documenting the economic toll of Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories. So her family history alone offers no grounds to cast her as "Israel's candidate."
Washington's role looms large here. As one of the five permanent Security Council members, the US can veto any nominee, and this race has already shown that Washington has its own priorities. The US, for instance, has raised objections to the candidacy of Michelle Bachelet, the former Chilean president and former UN human rights chief.
Rafael Grossi is another major contender. His years at the helm of the International Atomic Energy Agency have given him deep experience navigating the major powers, but he faces Russian opposition. So while the Israeli lobby can try to shape the political climate around the candidates and influence how Western capitals view them, the final decision ultimately hinges on a complex calculus among the five permanent members: the UN, Russia, China, France and Britain.
In many ways, the race to succeed Guterres is part of a larger struggle over the UN's future role in global conflicts.
If the next secretary-general is someone with close ties to Washington and its Western allies, and less inclined to confront Israel politically, Tel Aviv could find itself operating in a more favorable diplomatic environment on the Palestine file.
But if the job goes to someone more independent and more assertive on international law and humanitarian issues, the UN's critical stance on Gaza and Israeli policies is likelier to continue.
This is why the contest to replace Guterres is not just about filling an international post. It is a front in a broader battle over the UN's place in the Palestine question, and over how much leverage the organization can still bring to bear on Tel Aviv.
