Alwaght- Syria developments in 2025 after the fall of Bashar al-Assad government and rise to power of the interim government led by the Mohammad al-Jolani-headed armed militias not only changed the course of the Syrian home policies, but also influenced the balance of power among the regional actors. Meanwhile, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has seized the opportunity of Trump's regional tour to persuade the American president to lift Syria sanctions.
This move that demonstrated the peak of the Saudi support to the new government in Syria has roots in Saudi Arabia's strategic motivation and geopolitical calculation that include: 1. Security: Undermining the Axis of Resistance and preventing Syria from returning to its independent and anti-Israeli historical identity 2. Economy: Opening the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) to connect Persian Gulf to Europe, and 3. Geopolitics: Containing the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Turkey and strengthening the secular Arab allies in Damascus.
How is the Syrian economic situation?
Since the government affiliated with the armed groups came to power, efforts to lift sanctions have become one of the main priorities of Damascus' foreign policy, and in addition to mediating with Arab countries, bilateral talks have also taken place between the new rulers and Western governments to lift the sanctions. These efforts had achieved relative success by Trump's visit to the region last week. The European Union countries have recently taken the lead in this matter by suspending a package of sanctions imposed on Syria in the energy, transportation, construction and banking sectors.
Experts believe that sanctions have represented the most important obstacle to the reconstruction process in Syria after the decade-long civil war. As a result of this devastating war, not only was Syria's economic infrastructure completely destroyed or worn out, but also the country's financial resources and the human resources needed for reconstruction were also used up in the war.
The World Bank estimates that the Syrian economy is worth about $21 billion, roughly equivalent to the economies of Albania and Armenia, whose populations are more than 20 million smaller than Syria's.
Official data show that the country's total economy shrank by more than half between 2010 and 2022. The World Bank believes that even this rate is an underestimation, with estimates suggesting a sharper contraction of 83 percent between 2010 and 2024.
Syria was classified as a low-income country in 2018, according to the UN agencies, with more than 90 percent of its population of about 25 million living below the poverty line.
Sources had previously told Reuters that the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves did not exceed about $200 million, a significant drop from the $18.5 billion the International Monetary Fund estimated Syria had before the civil war began.
The country also holds about 26 tons of gold, worth more than $2.6 billion at current market prices.
Supporting new government: Syria shift from resistance to compromise
Undoubtedly, the fall of al-Assad government, despite all the concerns it created for Riyadh about the Turkish influence in the Arab world, provided an exceptional opportunity to Riyadh to work to restore its regional position in competition with Iran-led Axis of Resistance. The Saudis, who in the past decade, along with other Arab countries, the US, and the Israeli regime, had formed an open coalition to destroy the Axis of Resistance from Yemen to Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza, used all military, political, economic, and propaganda tools to achieve this goal. The petrodollars of the Arab monarchies played a key role in turning Syria into a major hot spot and and safe haven for terrorists, and revolutionary Yemen led by Ansarallah was also attacked by the Saudi-Emirati coalition during this period. However, the Saudis did not achieve any success in Yemen, nor was the war able to destroy the Syrian government. However, change of the Syrian equations in a short time sent the Saudis optimistic about reversing their losses, and by cutting Syria out as the middle ring of the Resistance camp's chain, Saudi Arabia is even thinking about beating the camp in Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq.
Accordingly, Saudi Arabia has been pursuing a policy of supporting the new Syrian regime and giving the country's seat in the Arab League to al-Jolani’s government from the outset. However, given Syria's ethnic and religious diversity, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's repressive policies against minorities, and public disapproval of the al-Jolani government's silence on the Israeli regime's occupation of Syrian territory, the Saudis continue to feel the danger of rebuilding resistance networks. To this end, the kingdom is seeking to strengthen the new government economically and prevent the fall of anti-Resistance government.
Checking Turkish influence
Since Turkey is currently considered the top actor in Syrian developments, its friendship with Islamist groups and Ankara’s historical support for parties affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood are a matter of concern for all Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. Turkey’s power is clearly increasing, and this factor could pave the way for the Muslim Brotherhood to gain power in the region. Although Turkey has improved its relations with Egypt and the Persian Gulf monarchies in the past two years, Syria may be Ankara’s new confrontation field with anti-Muslim Brotherhood Arab countries.
In this situation, bin Salman has concluded that the continuation of US sanctions against Syria will pave the way for Turkey’s influence to expand, as the al-Jolani’s government will become more dependent on its northern neighbor Turkey to solve its economic problems. The lifting of sanctions will open the way for Arab and international institutions to enter areas controlled by the government of al-Jolani and will effectively reduce Turkey's weight in the Syrian equations.
At present, Damascus needs $500 billion for reconstruction, and Turkey, hit by economic challenges, cannot help settle Syrian challenges. So this provides a suitable opportunity for the Arab countries to bolster their relations with the new Syrian government.
Access to Syria's geopolitical and economic position
With its long beaches, Syria has a special place in the project to connect the Persian Gulf to Europe. After relative establishment of the power of al-Jolani, bin Salman is looking at Syria as a gate providing access to the Mediterranean and European markets.
The collapse of Russian-controlled structures in the ports of Tartus and Latakia has created an unprecedented opportunity for investment and influence in these regions. In turn, the UAE, using investment networks affiliated with intermediary companies and logistics entities, is trying to control Syrian ports and their infrastructure in reconstruction. The Emiratis recently signed an $800 million investment agreement in the port of Tartus, and the Syrian government has also announced that it is seeking to transfer the right to print Syrian currency from Russia to the UAE, something indicating Abu Dhabi’s rise to outpace its competitors in expanding its economic presence in Syria.
Understanding this threat, bin Salman sees the policy to lift Syria sanctions as an official entry of Saudi companies to the Syrian market and prevention of the UAE monopoly. He also sees Syria as a key element in the IMEC, which could reach the Mediterranean through Syria instead of the traditional land routes through Iraq and Jordan, turning Saudi Arabia into a geopolitical hub for Eurasian and European trade.
Conclusion
Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia provided a golden opportunity for bin Salman to make a ground for sanctions lift beside boosting Saudi Arabian position in the brewing Syrian equations. This policy not only serves to counter Turkey and contain Iran, but also drives an economic competition against the UAE for establishment of the Saudi role in post-Assad Syria. In Riyadh's view, lifting Syria sanctions is a means of advancing economic, security, and geopolitical interests in Syria and beyond in the entire Arab east.
