Alwaght- The US president is set to land in Saudi Arabia in the coming hours to start his Persian Gulf tour that will see him also visiting Qatar and the UAE. This visit is coming as West Asia is in a state of geopolitical tensions and the policies of Trump's administration in many cases are unclear and it is expected that the framework of the US relations with the host countries be set for the next four years during the visit.
Therefore, bilateral issues like oil, trade investment deals, and very likely arms deals are expected to be topics of discussion during the tour.
At regional levels, the talks will likely focus on Gaza ceasefire, Palestinian case, Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, Iran's nuclear program, possibly Syria sanctions, and the Red Sea security.
Trump's $1 trillion investment demand from Saudi Arabia
Certainly, the most important part of this trip for Trump and the host countries is business and trade, along with the conclusion of investment agreements and partnerships in development and infrastructure issues.
This tour is considered Trump's first official foreign visit since his inauguration, and like his previous term, he wants to return home with billions of dollars in trade, arms, and investment deals, especially that in January, during Davos World Economic Forum he unveiled his demand from Saudi Arabia for $1 trillion in investment in the American economy.
It is worth noting that during Trump's 2017 visit to Arab kingdom, agreements worth about $350 billion were reached, including a $110 billion arms deal. Qatar also paid $8 billion in 2019 to expand the Al-Udeid military base, and according to the country's foreign minister, more than $200 billion has been invested in the American economy by the Persian Gulf emirate.
Now, it seems that similar conditions have been considered for this trip, as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had previously announced plans to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years. Also, according to media reports, King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia has invited the leaders of the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council countries to participate in the (P) GCC-US summit in Riyadh.
Although Saudi Arabia has yet to formally respond to Trump’s demand for mega-investment in the American economy, the Saudi economy minister has said the $600 billion investment will include both military and civilian purchases, with more to come if opportunities arise. A White House official said in March that the UAE had committed to a 10-year investment framework worth $1.4 trillion in the US.
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, predicts the tour will see the announcement of a number of agreements and contracts in a range of areas, including AI, energy and aluminum (the possibility of Trump’s lifting of 10 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel).
In this connection, an investment summit is scheduled in Riyadh with the participation of many Wall Street and Silicon Valley giants, such as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Palantir CEO Alex Karp, and the CEOs of Citigroup, IBM, Qualcomm, Alphabet, Franklin Templeton, and David Sachs, an expert on AI and digital currencies at the White House. The summit is very important for advancing the ambitious goals of bin Salman under 2030 Vision plan, as the decline in global oil prices and the cost of large development projects have increased Saudi Arabia's budget deficit, and the crown prince is seeking to strengthen cooperation with Washington in the areas of finance and investment to advance his ambitious investment program.
The Trump administration announced on Wednesday that it intends to revoke the Joe Biden-era "Artificial Intelligence Expansion Act," which imposed strict export controls on advanced AI chips, even for US allies. A US Commerce Department spokesman said the act would be replaced with "a much simpler one that unleashes American innovation and ensures American leadership in artificial intelligence."
It seems that Trump administration through facilitating technology exports tries to curb the growing Chinese influence in West Asian markets, as G42, the UAE's AI company, has recently made efforts to withdraw its investments in the Chinese companies and expanded its partnership with Microsoft to $1.5 billion to comply with the US laws.
Meanwhile, many media outlets have also revealed the Trump family’s huge profits from trade and investment deals with the Persian Gulf monarchies. For example, AFP reported that ahead of the trip, Eric Trump is in Dubai promoting his cryptocurrency company, while Trump's eldest son Donald Jr. Trump is preparing to give a speech in Doha on “monetizing MAGA (Make America Great Again).” Last month, the Trump Organization signed its first luxury real estate deal in Qatar and released details of a $1 billion skyscraper in Dubai where apartments can be purchased with cryptocurrency.
But in return for this lavish sprinkling of petrodollars to satisfy Trump’s voracious business appetite, he is said to have promised “political gifts” to host countries, which some speculate may include changing the name of the Persian Gulf to the fake Arabian Gulf name.
Possible arms deals among Trump's marketing aims, weapons are of great importance. Trump's policy in the Persian Gulf Arab states revolves around the threadbare Iranophobia and paying for security.
In 2018, Trump declared: “There are countries that cannot last a week without our support, and they must pay the price for that support.” At that time, he adopted a “pay-to-stay” policy, asking allies in Europe, West Asia, Japan and South Korea to pay for US-provided security protection.
Now that Trump has returned to the White House, it seems that this policy has not changed. Trump is likely to raise the issue of US arms deals with the Persian Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, the largest country in terms of size and military. According to Reuters, six people familiar with the matter said that Trump intends to offer Saudi Arabia more than $100 billion in arms deals during this visit.
The possible deal comes after the Biden administration failed to reach a comprehensive defense agreement with Saudi Arabia. Last week, the US State Department confirmed the possibility of selling advanced AIM-120C-8 air-to-air missiles and related equipment to Saudi Arabia worth $3.5 billion.
However, the regional situation is different from the past because Iran has diplomatically de-escalated tensions with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain. Ironically, Israeli regime's belligerence in Gaza and Lebanon, the occupation of Syrian territory, and the full support of the US for these destabilizing actions show Tel Aviv and Washington as the parties threatening regional peace and stability.
Therefore, the policy of Iranophobia to milk the rich Persian Gulf Arab monarchies is no longer as effective as it was in the past, as the presence of the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Saudi Arabia a day before Trump's visit was a message of Riyadh's desire to continue the process of improving and developing relations with Tehran. However, Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, are still likely to be willing to pay ransom in the area of arms purchases in order to convince Trump to sell new technologies and green light construction of a nuclear power plant.
Oil price
Oil price will also be a point of discussion during Trump's tour as the US president has been pressuring the Saudi-led OPEC countries for increase output to decrease the fuel prices for American consumers.
Reuters reported in late April, citing five sources familiar with the matter, that Saudi officials have told allies and oil industry experts that Riyadh is not prepared to support the oil market by cutting output further and can tolerate lower prices for a long time.
OPEC+, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, agreed earlier this month to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in June. Goldman Sachs also cut its forecast for the average price of US crude this year by $3 to $56 a barrel, due to the rapid increase in OPEC+ supply to the global market.
Regional cases: Gaza, normalization, and Red Sea
Other issues to be covered in this tour include Gaza and the Israeli war the end of which Trump had earlier vowed. However, shortly after the ceasefire two months ago, the Israeli regime reneged on the implementation of the agreement and resumed its barbarous attacks on the Gazans with American green light. And Trump, unveiling his plan to force the people of Gaza out of the enclave to seize its control, stirred a controversy in the region.
Therefore, the possibility of this war casting a shadow over Trump's visit has long been a concern, especially since the US military, on Trump's orders, officially launched a full-scale war on Yemen from the Red Sea to counter Sana'a's operations against Israeli interests in solidarity with Gaza.
To circumvent this heavy atmosphere, Trump has made some arrangements for his visit. He first announced an bilateral ceasefire agreement with Yemen which will not affect Yemeni attacks on Israel.
Second, speculations suggest the US president will announce recognition of state of Palestine during his forthcoming meeting with Arab leaders, a plan whose framework is yet to be clear, and considering his plan to relocate the people of Gaza to other Arab countries and its alignment with the old plan of the deal of the century for normalization to establish a Palestinian state in the lands of Jordan and Egypt in exchange for investment in Gaza, there is no positive prospect for the realization of Palestinian rights under his recognition of a Palestinian state. Actually, the recognition is more a show-off to distance from the heavy atmosphere caused by Gaza war and to make justifications for the Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, to step into the trap of normalization with Israel.
