Alwaght- Gaza ceasefire that started between the Israeli occupation forces and Hamas in January has an unclear fate. Its first stage ended but it is yet to be clear if there will be a second stage.
Barack Ravid, a political expert at Israeli Walla news website, has admitted recently that Tel Aviv does not commit to the ceasefire. He said that the second stage was supposed to start on the 16th day of implementing the deal, but after over 40 days, it has not begun yet.
What do the Israelis say about the ceasefire?
Despite Netanyahu and the Israeli regime's leaders showing that they are not committed to the ceasefire, reports indicate that 44 percent of settlers agree with the implementation of the second stage.
The latest poll conducted by the Israeli network Kan shows that 44 percent of Israelis agree with the implementation of the second phase of the prisoner swap agreement, and only 9 percent of Israelis insist on resuming the war against Gaza.
Also, 34 percent of the participants in the poll believe that Israel should commit to the US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff's proposal for ceasefire.
Ceasefire without progress
The Israeli media have also announced that little progress has been made in the ceasefire talks. Maariv newspaper quoted senior Israeli officials as saying that Witkoff is unlikely to arrive in Israel in the next few days.
Witkoff will only visit Israel if progress is made in the talks and will only enter the region to finalize the agreement, sources with knowledge of the matter said.
The report said that Israeli officials are opposed to setting a deadline for the mediation parties to try to persuade Hamas to move towards reaching an agreement and are prepared to give the mediation parties a few more days to continue their efforts.
Cases of ceasefire violation
Hamas movement in a statement listed the most important cases of Israeli violation of the ceasefire in the first stage of the ceasefire in Gaza:
1. Failure to issue the necessary permits for the daily entry of 50 fuel trucks based on the agreements made, so that in 42 days only 978 fuel trucks entered the Gaza Strip, with an average of 23 trucks entering the war-ravaged enclave daily.
2. Banning the Gaza Strip's commercial sector from importing various types of fuel, despite the fact that the agreement explicitly states that this is permissible.
3. Issuing permits for the entry of only 15 prefabricated houses out of the total of 60,000 that were agreed upon, in addition to issuing permits for a limited number of tents to enter the area.
4. Preventing the entry of heavy machinery needed for removing debris and removing bodies. Only 9 of these machines entered the Gaza Strip, while the area needs at least 500.
5. Preventing the entry of construction materials for rebuilding infrastructure and hospitals.
6. Preventing the entry of medical equipment necessary to reactivate hospitals and allowing only 5 ambulances to enter the Gaza Strip.
7. Opposing the entry of equipment required by the Civil Defense Department.
8. Preventing the activation of power stations and preventing the entry of equipment necessary to restore the power generation cycle.
9. Preventing the entry of liquidity into the banks of the Gaza Strip and opposing the exchange of worn-out banknotes.
Why is Tel Aviv concerned about extension of ceasefire?
It is obvious that Netanyahu and other Israeli officials are concerned about entry to the second stage. But why?
Collapse of cabinet: Hardliners in the cabinet are categorically against continuation of the ceasefire. National Security Minister Itmar Ben-Gvir left the cabinet upon implementation of the ceasefire. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has also threatened to step down if the second stage is implemented. He claimed that the next stage should include full occupation of the region as a prelude for implementing Trump's plan for relocation of the Gaza population in other countries, not the second stage of ceasefire.
According to the ceasefire agreement, in the second stage, Israel must completely withdraw from the Netzarim Axis that halves Gaza and dismantle all military installations it has set up, after which the Israeli forces will be stationed in a buffer zone of 700 to 1,000 meters between Gaza and the occupied territories. This withdrawal indicates the complete defeat of the Israeli military, and for this reason, the hardline ministers are unwilling to implement this stage of the ceasefire. If the second stage is implemented and Smotrich resigns, the possibility of the collapse of Netanyahu's cabinet is so high, and perhaps one of the reasons for not implementing this stage is Netanyahu's fear of the collapse of his cabinet.
Fear of Hamas power boost: Hamas in the first stage of the deal has shown that it is the indisputable ruling force in Gaza. There is no doubt that with the withdrawal of the Israeli military in the second stage of the ceasefire, Hamas forces will be able to immediately fill the place of the occupiers. In this situation, Netanyahu's claim of victory over Hamas will be completely questioned and in practice Hamas will show its greater power. Therefore, the Israelis are wary of entering the second stage since they are worried about Hamas gaining more power, especially since Hamas very well displayed its power in the prisoner swap deals and if the second stage in implemented, Israeli achievements will fully disappear.
Will Tel Aviv wage new war?
There are signs Israeli occupation has prepared itself to resume the war. Recalling at least 40,000 reserve forces to parts of Gaza is one of these signs. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Hamas does not release Israeli prisoners, it will close down Gaza gates and "open hell gates" to the. He also warned war will be resumed soon and continue until full victory.
Still, the Israelis face limitations resuming the war. At least in the holy month of Ramadan, the people of Palestine are poised to fight back harder and the Muslim countries are more focused to the Gaza developments. Therefore, at least in the holy month, it is hard for the Israelis to think resumption of the aggression.
