Alwaght- Trump's plan for forced migration of Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan and Egypt, which has stirred a massive controversy in political circles, has drawn worry of Cairo and Amman and the resolute opposition of other Arab countries.
Reacting to the proposal, the Jordanian foreign ministry described it as a "violation of the red lines."
Though the Jordanian government does not publish the precise number of the Palestinians expats, unofficial reports put suggest that they account for over 60 percent of the country's population.
It should not be ignored that the plan the US president announced and on which he is insisting specifically pursues the American interests and inflicts consequences on Palestine, Egypt, and Jordan.
To discuss the consequences of implementing the initiative, Alwaght talked to Sayyed Hadi Afghahi, an Iranian expert of West Asian affairs.
Mr Afghahi first shed light on the history of foundation of Jordan, saying that after the demise of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War, the Western powers drew borders in the region under to the Sykes-Picot treaty and Jordan came to existence as Land of Levant. Initially, it was under management of Britain and now it is under management of the US. So, Jordan has never dared to resist the British and American orders. Actually, it has always been standing as an ally beside the US and Israel and it is financially supported by Saudi Arabia. This means that in case of a serious opposition of Amman, Riyadh and other Arab monarchies will cut off their aids with just a nod of Trump. The country has no considerable sources of income. Part of the aids to Jordan are because of the Palestinians living in camps there. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) pays funds to the Jordanian government for spending on the Palestinian refugees, but the Jordanian government steals most of this aid, and allocates a very small amount to Palestinians.
While not ruling out Jordan accepting Trump's plan, the political expert said it remains to see what kind of political and financial privileges the US will offer to Amman to force the king of Jordan to take in the Palestinians of the West Bank.
He added that the United Nations and Arab countries are also apparently seriously opposing it. Of course, Trump's plans and ideas are not only limited to the occupied territories. Trump intends to annex Canada to the US and this country should become the 51st state. He also believes that ownership of the Panama Canal should belong to the United States. He renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. Trump even has a dispute with NATO member states over spending and shares. But his plan regarding the Palestinian issue is an exaggeration. The Palestinian issue has remained unresolved for 75 years, and now Trump thinks he can solve this crisis with force and propaganda. The US Congress itself and Trump's close friends, namely members of the Republican Party, have described Trump's behavior as a kind of madness. Because this plan will make people and countries around the world hate the US and distance themselves from it. This plan has even faced serious opposition from Washington's closest allies, such as Germany, France, Italy, and England.
Mr Afghahi holds that he does not see unlikely that Jordan will take in the Palestinians not as refugees but as second-rate citizens. After all, during several wars, large groups of Palestinians were forced to Jordan, and currently Jordan hosts the biggest Palestinian refugee camps. Whether the Palestinians of the West Bank are ready to migrate to Jordan is a matter of their resistance. Even Egyptians protested Trump's plan in the Egyptian part of Rafah on the Gaza-Sinai border. Egyptian President Abdul Fattah el-Sisi announced strong positions in his speeches against the forced displacement of Palestinians. It must be said that the control that the US, the Trump administration, and the West have over Jordan and the leverage they can exert against it is much greater than that of Egypt. But Egypt is a large country and will not be forced to accept it so easily.
Commenting on Jordan's reliance on the Arab financial aid, Mr Afghahi said that the US aid is not a considerable amount. But Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some other Persian Gulf states on the one hand and the Jordan-based UNRWA Commissioner-General sends aids not to Jordanian government but to the Palestinians.
These aids serve to ease the pressures on Jordanian budget because this country is not rich like other Arab countries enjoying oil and gas reserves. Trump can easily cut off aid to Jordan through Mohammed bin Salman to force them to accept the Palestinians. They also force the Palestinian people to migrate with promises such as returning to Palestine after reconstruction. Because they have forced all the Palestinians who are in the camps in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan to migrate with this promise. Since Nakba in 1948, the migrants even kept the keys to their houses in the hope of returning. But we have seen that every Palestinian who was exiled or expelled from their land was never able to return. The Palestinian people do not want Nakba to happen again. This is even challenging for other Arab countries because the population is more than 3 million in the West Bank and more than 2 million in Gaza. The host countries cannot provide for the health, security, employment and housing of the migrants. So, it looks unlikely Trump can fully implement his plan.
At present, Jordan is the weakest country Trump can press to accept Palestinians. If Trump manages to get Jordan to accept and actually execute his plan, the next country will be Egypt. But the Egyptians have so far resisted the idea. But if pressures go more serious and the Persian Gulf monarchies cut off aid or threaten to do so, King Abdul of Jordan will certainly choose his throne over loyalty to the Palestinian cause.
Mr Afghahi further raised possibility of a coup in Jordan by Trump, adding that the half brother of King Abdullah earlier plotted a coup, but failed. This remains in place. It is likely the country will turn into a republic. Actually, such is potential exists in this country.
At the end, on a possible shift in Jordan's political approach, Mr Afghahi maintained that Jordan and the king himself do not dare to do so. Since the beginning, the country has been under control of Britain and the US and has been running on the finances of the Persian Gulf Arab monarchies and does not have a strong economy. It cannot change its approach and move to China and Russia. This is highly unlikely.
