Alwaght- After years of political stalemate in Lebanon over election of a president, the Lebanese groups finally reached a consensus on Joseph Aoun to fill the position after two years.
To discuss the current developments in Lebanon and influence of election of a new precedent on the future of relations between the government and resistance forces led by Hezbollah, Alwaght talked to Sayyed Hadi Afghahi, a senior West Asia affairs observer and analyst.
Exceptional conditions led to Hezbollah's departure from advocacy to Suleiman Frangieh
Starting his comments, Mr Afghahi mentioned the conditions that led to election of Joseph Aoun. He said that the atmosphere of election of president was highly exceptional in terms of security, economy, and the region conditions. After October 7, developments turned the tide in favor of the Axis of Resistance and dealt a blow to the global imperialism led by the US. However, as the war lasted longer in Gaza, the US directly stepped in and tried to save the Israeli regime from the swamp is was sinking in. If it was not for the American help, Tel Aviv would have moved towards collapse. So, the US involvement shifted the equations and somehow changed the conditions in Israeli favor. The terrorist operations targeting Hezbollah and Hamas commanders and leaders, continuation of genocidal war in Gaza, invasion of southern Lebanon for occupation, and the prior operations like pager and walkie-talkie explosions damaged the pro-Hezbollah community inside Lebanon. Also, the martyrdom of four senior Hezbollah commanders and the painful blow that led to the martyrdom of Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah and his aide Sayyid Hashem Safieddine and other resistance leaders in Lebanon strained the conditions in Lebanon, and ultimately the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria and the occupation of Syria by the takfiri militias, who came to power with the support of the Israeli regime, the US, Turkey and other countries, changed regional equations. Before these developments, Hezbollah's candidate was Suleiman Frangieh and many also expected Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah to become president, but with the developments that happened, the Axis of Resistance naturally suffered damage to some extent, and the enemy tried to benefit from this damage, though this damage was mended quickly, especially in political terms.
Mr Afghahi added that the US and Israeli favorable candidate was the head of pro-Western and Israeli Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, but one of the Hezbollah officials named Rafiq Safa categorically opposed the presence of this factor of sedition and announced that anyone who wants can be a candidate, except for Geagea, who is a cause of sedition, conflict and civil war in Lebanon. Hezbollah representative threatened to veto Geagea. Then the Americans and Saudis agreed on army chief Aoun, a relatively moderate figure.
Aoun accepts Hezbollah conditions
Mr Afghahi commented on Hezbollah's condition for green light to Aoun, saying that in the first round of elections in the Lebanese parliament, Aoun did not secure majority and the reason was that the Shiite coalition, that is, both Hezbollah and Amal movements led by Nabi, who is also the speaker of the parliament, refused to vote. In the second round, before voting, both Hezbollah and Amal representatives negotiated with Aoun and announced that they will vote for him if a few conditions of them are met. This included reconstruction of the southern suburbs in Beirut, as the stronghold of Hezbollah. Another important issue is the fight against the Israeli regime and resistance to the aggressions of this occupying regime.
Elimination of the illusion of Hezbollah weakening
After Hezbollah and Amal made their positions clear to Aoun, he was convinced and vowed to meet them. In his first speech after election, he raised these issues. Actually, with their unity, Hezbollah and Amal dealt a strong blow to the Israeli-American camp and disallowed Geagea's presidency. They also proved that the initiative is still held by Hezbollah and other resistance forces. In other words, if Hezbollah and Amal have not voted, there would be no new president. Just contrary to the claim that after assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah Hezbollah has been weakened militarily and sidelined from Lebanese politics, the highly smart initiative of Berri, Hezbollah's chief Sheikh Naim Qassem, and Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc chief Mohammad Raad turned the tide in Hezbollah's favor. As they did not allow Israel to sieze Lebanese territories in the south and push Hezbollah forces to the north of Litani River, in politics, too, Hezbollah proved it is still a heavyweight and a determining power. This destroyed an illusionary atmosphere cause by the Israelis and Americans about Hezbollah going weakened in the Lebanese politics after war.
Debate over shares in key ministries
Pointing to the process of cabinet formation, Mr Afghahi said that currently the debate is about picking a new prime minister. The parties debate their shares in the ministries. In Lebanon, there are four important ministries, ministry of defense, ministry of economy, ministry of foreign affairs, and ministry of interior. The debate is now on these ministries that are dubbed "sovereign ministries." These are key ministries and others are service and complementary ministries.
Power and authority of president in Lebanon
Commenting on the interaction between the president and resistance forces in Lebanon and the post of president being ceremonial, Mr Afghahi maintained that although the executive affairs are a job of the PM, the president is a symbol of national unity and accord. The president at times can take actions like removing the PM and ministers after consultation with the parliament. But according to the constitution, executive tasks are entirely in the hands of the PM, although some argue that the constitution should also be amended because there are a number of flaws in it that may deepen with the arrival of Aoun. Of course, it should be kept in mind that he is not a politician, but the commander of the Lebanese army and a military figure. Berri, as the speaker of parliament and a political figure, should help and advise him. Cooperation between them can prevent the dangerous traps that the Israeli regime will set for Aoun.
Enemy plot for Hezbollah's arms: Will golden equation end?
Mr Afghahi held that President Aoun during his speech made a meaningful remark. He said that arms should be limited to the hands of government. He did not mention Hezbollah, but said that arms should be held only by the government. After the president took the oath, some news networks like Al-Manar and Al-Mayadeen asked Iranian ambassador in Lebanon for interpretation of Aoun's words and if they conflicted with Hezbollah's stances. The ambassador smartly responded that Hezbollah is inside Lebanon and its weapons are used to defend the Lebanese people. Hezbollah should make it clear from now that nobody should comment on its arms. Traditionally, for any government formed, there is a "golden equation" — the army, the resistance, the people. The question is that will the new president that came to power with American and Saudi support revoke this equation and pave the way for disarmament of Hezbollah? This is the demand of the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Tahrir al-Sham group in Syria, because Hezbollah fought ISIS terrorists in Syria since 2011 and made sacrifices to prevent seizure of power to by takfiris. So, this is one of the complicated and highly sensitive isssues. We should wait and see what approach the government and new PM will take towards Hezbollah and what reactions the latter will show about disarmament attempts.
Iran remains supporter of Hezbollah and resistance
Asked about Iranian approach to the recent political developments in Lebanon, Mr Afghahi described Iran's behavior respectful. He said that Iran respected the election of new president and sent a message of congratulations. Both the ambassador and the foreign ministry congratulated Lebanon on its election of president. There is a common stance by Iran which says that whatever Lebanese nations choice is, Tehran will respect it. However, this does not mean it allows enemies to do whatever they want to weaken Hezbollah and Iran will remain silent. Iran will maintain its support to Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance and any action meant to undermine Hezbollah will face Iranian reaction. After all, Hezbollah is a regional power and not limited to Lebanon. Hezbollah fought against takfiris in Syria and helped Ansarullah Movement in Yemen. Thus is painful to the US and it cannot eliminate Hezbollah. But it takes steps to weaken it. Still the Islamic Republic of Iran, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei asserted, will not all allow the Axis of Resistance to be undermined, especially after recent Syria developments.
