Alwaght- About three decades after end of the Soviet military presence in the Red Sea, it seems that the Kremlin intends to rebuild its presence in Africa and meanwhile Sudan is of high significance for the Russians. Last week, the Sudanese ambassador to Russia said that Khartoum is committed to setting up a joint military base with Moscow and highlighted his country's efforts to establish this naval base. In 2019, Russia and Sudan struck a deal for Moscow to establish a logistics center for the Russian navy in Port Sudan to host up to 300 Russian soldiers and supply fuel to the Russian warships, but this agreement has not yet materialized. In fact, Russia's return to the Horn of Africa is tied to the strategic value of this country's presence in the Red Sea, and in the meantime, Sudan plays a major role for the Russians towards this end.
Recently, General Yasser al-Atta, the Deputy chief of general staff of of Sudanese armed forces, talked about imminent finalization of the pact for Russian base in his country. However, it is unclear when this base is going to be operational.
10 years of negotiations
Negotiations between Moscow and Khartoum over the naval base have been going on for about a decade. In 2015, the two sides signed an MoU to establish a naval base off the Red Sea coast of Sudan. In 2017, this pact was ratified, and two years later, the two sides signed a 7-year security and military cooperation agreement, followed by a 25-year military agreement in 2020. Early last year, a delegation led by Sudanese Deputy Chairman of the Sovereign Council and after him General Hamdi, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, visited Moscow and agreed with the Russian government to start the construction of the base, but outbreak of the civil war in the spring of the same year hindered the progress of negotiations, because Burhan and Hamdi are fiercely fighting each other for power.
Sudan’s need for Russia
According to al-Atta, the Russian presence in the Sudanese coasts will be limited to logistics and not a purely military base. On the other hand, Russia will implement plans for military, security, and economic cooperation with Sudan. This African country needs Russia in such areas as agriculture and mining and the Sudanese officials have said that they will receive support in these areas from the Russians. This agreement will allow the Russian military to use Sudan's ports and airports to transport the necessary equipment to its bases.
At the same time, international media report that given the need of the Sovereign Council to fight against the Rapid Support Forces, Russia is not unlikely to provide the much needed weapons, ammunition, warplane spare parts, and combat drones.
Why is Russia interested in Sudan?
At the same time, the civil war-hit Sudan is not the only coastal country in Africa, and the coasts of Somalia or Eritrea, overlooking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, can be a more attractive position for Russia to be present in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean, but Sudan is still an important choice for Moscow to rebuild presence in the Red Sea. Western media report that Russia, along with its negotiations with Sudan, had contacts with Eritrea to establish a base in this tiny African country, but it is unclear if the Sudanese base is a replacement for that in Eritrea or Moscow sought to establish a separate one. At the same time, what is certain is that the negotiations with Eritrea have not borne fruits.
Terms of agreement: The initial agreement states that the Russian base will host 300 Russians, including military and civil personnel. The 25-year pact says that it is extendable to 10 more years. The anchorage of the base can simultaneously host 4 ships or submarines, including nuclear submarines.
Political significance: From a geographical point of view, this base facilitates Russia's presence in a strategically important region. The significance of the location of this base for the Russians is better understood when we know that this base overlooks the Bab-el-Mandeb, beside being close to 12 Western bases. Also, the proximity of this base to the Bab-el-Mandeb means Russia's presence next to one of the world's most important straits through which 12 percent of world trade passes, enabling Russia to watch an important part of international trade through the Red Sea, which is one of the seven important paths in global trade.
Geographical significance: This naval base also provides Moscow with sufficient open space in the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean, Asia and the entire east coast of the African continent, and would be an important supply, maintenance and support center for the Russian navy to engage military units in drills or missions in the Indian Ocean. The Port Sudan base will be a stopover and refueling point for Russian military cargo planes en route to Africa due to its relatively midway location between Tartus base in Syria and Russian sphere of influence on the coast of Africa.
Absence of Wagner: Russia is yet to gain a foothold in the African coastal countries in the West of the continent. Previously, Russia had absolute reliance on the Wagner private military group for operations in Africa, but despite the strategic achievements, Wagner's achievements were undone in the long run, because Wagner was not only a notorious group, but also after the failed coup attempt of this group against President Vladimir Putin, it lost its place in the strategy of the Kremlin. Although Russia was able to gain economic, political and media benefits in Africa through Wagner in a short period of time, the accusations of crimes against humanity and gross violations of human rights against Wagner have pushed the Russian government to remove the group from Africa.
Russia's current position in Africa
Russia seems to have relatively reached its initial goal of returning to Africa and flexing its muscles there to other powers like France and the US that are traditionally present in Africa. The military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, and the subsequent cancellation of the cooperation pacts of these countries with Paris and Washington have revealed the effectiveness of the Russian strategy in Africa. This strategy is a combination of intense media propaganda against the West in Africa along with promising slogans of liberation from the West's colonial legacy. This strategy has proven its effectiveness so far.
Also, along with advancing the talks with Sudan over the naval base, Russia continues to strengthen its presence in western and central Africa through security and military cooperation with anti-Western countries including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The Russia pacts with these countries stipulate revocation of pacts with the West, especially France.
At the same time, Russia's presence in Africa remains limited to military aspect, and one of the reasons for this is Moscow's inability to gain a foothold on the west coast of the continent, which means the inability to transport equipment to these areas. Reports suggest that the government of the Central African Republic marked a site in the Brengo region, eighty kilometers from the capital Bangui to host a Russian military base that will be the first in Africa and host 10,000 soldiers. The Central African Republic's geographic location allows Russian forces to monitor the situation across the continent from roughly equal distances, enabling them to intervene more quickly in regional developments if the need arises.
Also, if the Port Sudan base goes operational, it provides a key logistics point for the Russians since through this base, Russia can transfer the cargo of ships docked within a few hours by air to the east of the continent and the Indian Ocean region and to Bangui in the shortest possible time. Also, the base, in addition to its operational role on the continent, enables Russia to have an important position in Sudan, because Sudan is a country rich in mineral resources, water resources and agricultural land, providing a very good economic opportunity to the Russians.
Russia has been present in Sudan for years. Russian companies were granted license to produce gold from some mines of Sudan. And at present, Moscow is working across Africa to entrench its presence and upgrade its influence to historical levels.
