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Analysis

Will Kirkuk Reembrace Security after Recent Provincial Election?

Sunday 24 December 2023
Will Kirkuk Reembrace Security after Recent Provincial Election?

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Iraq’s Provincial Council Elections Kick Off

Alwaght- On Monday, Iraq held provincial council elections after a decade, and millions of Iraqis voted to elect their representatives in local governments. After the polling stations were closed, counting the votes immediately began. Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced the turnout rate was 41 percent, adding that the initial results will be published within 24 hours. Official Iraqi news agency cited IHEC head Omar Ahmad as saying that the commission as the highest electoral authority in the country did its duty successfully and the elections were held in a “secure and democratic environment.”

The turnout rates in provinces were also announced, and the highest turnout was recorded in Kirkuk province with 65 percent and the lowest in Maysan province with 29 percent. These elections were held in 15 out of 18 Iraqi provinces and 3 provinces in the Kurdistan region in the north were not included in this election according to the law of the federal government. 

The election atmosphere of Kirkuk province was different from other provinces and exceptional conditions were experienced, something drawing admiration of the Iraqi authorities who hoped that it will be a prelude to solving the challenges in this province.

Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani congratulated the country for successful end of elections and described elections in Kirkuk to be the most important achievement of this period. 

“Holding provincial council elections is the fulfillment of the government’s commitment and agenda in the cabinet’s program and another step towards administrative decentralization, strengthening civil peace and stability, and achieving a late resolution that was lost since 2013,” al-Sudani said. 

The PM added that the most obvious form of success was the arrangement of elections in Kirkuk, which were held for the first time since 2005, and “I salute all those who helped to implement this right, al-Sudani noted.” 

Head of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq group Qais Khazali for his part said that stability of Kirkuk necessarily means stability of Iraq given the special significance of the province in Iraq’s developments. 

“Kirkuk is of special position with its wealth and resources, and after 20 years, we have faced a new opportunity and we all needed to know what is better for Kirkuk and Iraq,” he was quoted as saying. 

The provincial government of Kirkuk is of special importance to the two major Kurdish parties Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and these parties did their best to get the highest percentage of votes in the provincial council elections to advance the argument that this province is predominantly Kurdish. About 870,920 people were eligible for voting in this province, and the as above mentioned the turnout rate was 65 percent, something making Kirkuk take the lead from other provinces. 

Election in Kirkuk is important because this province has not seen provincial council elections since 2005 while other provinces held their elections since 2013. 

Under the third amendment of the electoral law, the provincial council was formed in 2005, and Kirkuk received 16 seats, including one for Christians. 

Kirkuk election importance 

Return of provincial elections is considered as providing solution to problems the provinces are facing, specially Kirkuk that has a special condition and many problems that can only be solved through politics. Due to the nature of the province, elections in Kirkuk are the most exciting and competitive process at national political levels since the Kurdish parties try to regain the governorship position and political influence after losing it for two decades. 

That is why the Kurdish officials encouraged the Kurds to turn out for voting to gain heavier political weight through winning larger number of seats than other minorities. Before the elections, Kurdish party member Mohammad Seyed Karim in a conversation with Furat News had sent a message to the people of Kirkuk, telling them: “My message to the people of Kirkuk is to participate in the elections and vote for the Kurdish lists for the Kurds not to lose their voice and get their position in the provincial council strengthened. 

Economically speaking, Kirkuk has always been a source of dispute between the federal government and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) due to its economic position and huge oil and gas resources. In recent years, the Kurdistan region has earned a lot of income by selling Kirkuk oil to Turkey without the approval of the federal government, angering Baghdad. Baghdad filed a suit with international court, and after several years, Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce ruled in favor of the central government, leafing to halt of oil sales to Turkey by KRG. 

Kirkuk oilfield is Iraq’s oldest and world’s largest after Ghawar oilfield in Saudi Arabia in terms of production capacity and also the world’s fifth largest field in terms of size. Citing the articles of the constitution, the central government wants to sell Kirkuk oil under Baghdad supervision so that the revenues from it will be divided by the government, but Kurdish leaders were against the idea. 

Their political dispute took a new turn after Erbil held independence referendum in the Kurdistan region in September 2017, and despite holding numerous meetings between the officials of the two sides to settle things, they have failed to reach a basic solution in this field. So, holding provincial council elections in Kirkuk, which has been welcomed by the authorities of Baghdad and Erbil can help return political stability to this oil-rich province. 

Settling ethno-sectarian disputes 

In addition to political and economic issues, what puts Kirkuk in the spotlight is the existence of ethnic diversity in this province. Iraqis call Kirkuk the city of brotherly nationalities or the city of nationalization since it is home to various Iraqi races and nationalities, including Kurds, Turkmen, Arabs, Assyrians, Chaldeans, and Mandaean Sabians. Though ethnic diversity is seen an advantage for the province, in recent years, the conflict between these ethnic groups has increased and insecurity continues to cast a shadow on Kirkuk. 

In the latest clashes in September, at least four were killed and more were injured. The central government intervened to settle the dispute. Arabs and minority groups argue they have suffered under Kurdish rule and are opposed to the return of the Kurdistan Democratic Party to Kirkuk. This means that the results of the provincial elections in Kirkuk are of great importance. Entry of parties from different ethnic groups into the council of this province can help a lot in resolving conflicts among ethnic minorities.

So far, there has been no reference authority to address the disputes, but now representatives of various ethnic groups can settle the cases on the behalf of the minorities. The provincial councils in Iraq act as the legislative and supervisory authority in each province and have the right to issue local laws that allow them to run their affairs in accordance with the principle of administrative decentralization, without conflicting with the constitution and federal laws that are under the exclusive jurisdiction of Baghdad. 

In addition to the case of minorities, due to its economic position, Kirkuk over the past decade has been a setting for role of regional and international actors. For some time, Iran mediated between the central government and Kurdistan local government to end instability. Additionally, Turkey considers Kirkuk as a pivotal partner in energy security and Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline epitomizes this partnership. The US, on the other hand, which always fishes in troubled waters has fanned the flames of dispute between Erbil and Baghdad for years to ensure its imperialist interests. 

The PKK terrorists have taken advantage of Kirkuk insecurity in the past years. In October 2017 and on the eve of declaration of obliteration of ISIS terrorist group, some media reported that Erbil sent PKK to Kirkuk. Reacting to the deployment, the Iraqi National Security Council described PKK presence as a declaration of war on the central government. 

In general, it can be suggested that while Kirkuk has sunken in security and political crises over the past decade, the provincial council election can represent a remedy, though small, to its disputes, and once Erbil differences with the central government are settled, security is expected to return to this province. 

 

Tags :

Iraq Provincial Election Kirkuk Security Erbil Central Government

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