Alwaght- The Israeli war on Gaza since its beginning on October 7 and following Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Storm has not followed any goal but massacring innocent civilians and striking the infrastructures ad hospitals without the least consideration of the international laws or world reactions. Declaring war and recalling about 360,000 reservists and amassing them on the border with Gaza for a ground offensive raise many questions about the Israeli capability to enter a long battle. Though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday announced the third stage of Gaza war to ensure advances on the ground, experts believe that the ground attack will become Israel’s real nightmare, especially that such an operation would unavoidably have heavy toll and should it fail to realize its goals, as it was the case with past wars, it would seriously harm the Israeli military’s image.
To get a broader picture of the Israeli ground offensive, Alwaght arranged an interview with international affairs expert Jaffar Qanadbashi.
Alwaght: Given the failure of several limited attempts to enter Gaza and increasing opposition inside the Israeli regime to this offensive, do you think that the government of Netanyahu will insist on this plan?
Qanadbashi: Now, not only domestically, but also internationally the pressure against the Israeli regime is increasing, and the Western supporters of this regime have put all their embassies on alert and are worried that they will be threatened as Western citizens are increasingly opposing the war.
The Israeli citizens, too, are pressuring hardline government of Netanyahu, telling it that continuation of this situation is dangerous for the occupied territories and puts their existence at stake. If the Americans want to help the Israeli army enter Gaza, it should be said that experience has shown that America has not been successful in any ground battle, and they have always implemented a policy of hit and run, and the Israeli regime itself has not been successful in a battle in the past five decades. And even with the American help, they have no hope of victory. Now, Netanyahu is not only under pressure from the domestic public opinion, but also the suspension of economic activities and the issue of prisoners have also put his government in a tight spot.
From another aspect, Jordan and Egypt strongly oppose the idea of relocation of people of Gaza to Sinai Desert and if the Israelis push for this idea, the people of Jordan and Egypt will move to the occupied territories, something that would inflame the tensions. That is why, the Jordanian and Egyptian officials have called on the Western countries to stop Netanyahu’s warmongering or the situation will slip out of control. These are the internal and external obstacles ahead of the Israeli ground offensive on Gaza for its occupation.
Netanyahu seeks two goals behind the ground operation. One is that by defeating Hamas and occupying Gaza, he would cover up his failures against the resistance groups. Second, he believes that if he does not take serious action this time and stop the war, he will lose deterrence completely, and in this case, Iran and the resistance groups in the region will take the initiative and they can no longer be controlled. But this threadbare policy has been put forward many times by Netanyahu and he had made claims against Iran’s nuclear program in the UN, but these claims have no buyers and therefore he is facing a serious problem to continue the war.
In addition, Netanyahu does not trust the army. Therefore, he has neither the ability nor the means to continue the war in Gaza, nor do the domestic and international conditions allow him to do so. Therefore, he has no choice but to stop the attacks on Gaza.
Alwaght: Given the warnings by the resistance groups about attacks on the American bases in the region, how likely are new fronts opened against Tel Aviv?
Qanadbashi:Currently, the war is managed by the Axis of Resistance wisely and in a calculated way, and if the situation continues this way, the situation will be controlled to a great extent, unless Netanyahu and hardliners in his cabinet make a suicidal move and make the situation worse. The Axis of Resistance has so far controlled the situation with revolutionary patience, and the probability that new fronts will open is very low, and none of the parties has the desire to escalate tensions in the region.
The United States as the biggest supporter of the Israeli regime does not want war to spread across the region as it is involved in Ukraine against Russia and finds it difficult to fight in two fronts simultaneously. France that has recently moved out of North Africa does not want a new challenge in West Asia and Britain has suffered losses in Ukraine and does not want to pay another high price this time in West Asia. So, I think that given the world demands to avoid a regional conflict, new fronts against the Israeli regime are unlikely.
Another important issue is the deterrence that resistance groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansarullah, and Syria have created, and each of them can destroy the Israeli regime. The Israelis know that if new fronts are opened, they will lose their existence and lives, and if they make a stupid move, they sign their death warrant.
Alwaght: As you said, the US and Britain are aware of the consequences of an escalation in Gaza. However, the US and its allies in recent days vetoed United Nations Security Council resolutions in support of Tel Aviv and blocked a motion for ceasefire in Gaza, helping inflame the war. Why are the Westerners escalating the tensions while they are aware of the consequences? What is the main reason the West wants to prolong the war?
Qanadbashi: The goal of the Americans is to score points from Hamas by continuing the war in Gaza and declare it as a victory for themselves. They want to expel Hamas from Gaza and give the administration of this area to Palestinian Authority, but from 2005, the Israelis waged 10 wars against the Gaza Strip, and in all of them they demanded a ceasefire, and now Israeli citizens are demanding a ceasefire. They cannot stay in the shelters for a long time ad this is their weakness.
The Westerners are worried that the war will get out of control, which is difficult for the them to control back, and therefore they are looking for concessions from Hamas to force it to retreat, and therefore, the United States and the Europeans do not welcome the continuation of the war due to the situation in which they are stuck. On the other hand, United States loss in Gaza makes Washington’s allies in the region sound the alarm as there is a possibility of their collapse. Today, we see that the people of Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Yemen are ready to act to assist Palestine. The Egyptian officials are afraid that their people go to Palestine to fight the Israeli occupation given the popular enthusiasm to liberate Palestine and fight Israeli regime.
Alwaght: A wave of global anti-Israeli sentiments is rising due to Gaza massacre. The Israelis in recent years have made huge efforts to gain a toehold in Africa. What is the position of the African countries concerning Gaza war?
Qanadbashi: African Islamic countries, even Morocco and Sudan which have agreed to normalize relations with Israeli regime and even the Egyptians which have good relations with it, cannot align with the policies of the Israeli regime in this situation, because they are under pressure from public opinion, and this issue is very important for the Israelis. The people of Algeria and Tunisia are generally anti-Israeli, and in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria, there are high anti-Israeli sentiments.
In Africa’s south which there are also Muslim countries, countries oppose the racist policies of the Israeli regime and even at the United Nations vote against Tel Aviv inspired by South African revolutionary leader Nelson Mandela who said what is going on in Palestine is an Israeli apartheid against the Palestinians. So, the countries in Africa’s south are opposed to the Israeli crimes not out of religious reasons by anti-racist sentiments and even South Africa voted against Tel Aviv at the United Nations
Alwaght: How is current Gaza war affecting Israeli normalization with Muslim countries, especially African ones?
Qanadbashi: The normalization process went into effect under former US President Donald Trump to some extent and four not so important countries of the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan normalized ties with the Israeli regime. But when Biden took office, the normalization process stopped, and with the resolution of the Israeli parliament that criminalized any relationship with the Israeli regime, the process practically stopped and no country over the past three years yielded to a thaw deal.
And now, given Palestine developments and ongoing Israeli crimes in Gaza and the West Bank, the normalization has witnessed a rollback. Though the Americans in recent months tried to lure Saudi Arabia into normalization to make a pretext for others to join in, Riyadh now does not dare join the process as the Saudis and other Arab officials are afraid of public anger and, thus, the normalization will not progress in the next few years.
