Alwaght- Since the day Benjamin Netanyahu and far-rights assumed the power, the occupied territories have sunk in massive security and political crises that are spiraling broader day by day.
In the latest development, hundreds of the army reservists in a move to put strains on the government and parliament signed a petition threatening that if the government presses ahead with the judicial overhaul, which the opposition describes as a trick to impair the powers of the Supreme Court, they will end their voluntary service.
The petition was signed by 1,142 air force reservists, including 235 fighter pilots, 89 helicopter pilots, 98 transport pilots, 173 UAV operators, 124 control personnel, 167 command staff personnel, and 80 service forces from the 669th Unit.
The pilots wrote in a letter addressed to Knesset members, Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Air Force Commander Tomer Bar: "We all have a responsibility to end the division that has hurt the people.”
Concerns about a military coup
Army rebellion has caused waves of concerns among the Israelis. Media outlets describe the mutiny wave as a “serious damage to the air force and its battle capabilities.”
Haaretz labeled the current developments in the military structure a "military coup" and wrote: “The rebels and their supporters are employing euphemisms and resorting to linguistic acrobatics rather than stating unequivocally that there is insubordination among many Israel Defense Forces reservists. They refer to it instead as “ceasing to volunteer.”
Nadava Argaman, the former head of Shin Bet, in reaction to the protests said that Israeli regime is on the brink of a civil war and called on Netanyahu to back down on his judicial reforms.
Yedioth Ahronoth held that “even if we accept that the army performance has not changed, we should agree that its cohesion had definitely been damaged.”
Given the rise of insubordination phenomenon among the Israeli army reservists and also given the concerns expressed by the Israeli officials about downturn in the military performance, Netanyahu’s cabinet is now strongly concerned about military weakness and spread of protests to other parts of the IDF.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said that "the situation is very worrying" and asked Netanyahu to postpone the vote on judicial reform bill. Netanyahu also warned about the dangers of calls for military service refusals in the background of the protests, saying that these calls are undemocratic and affect Israel's security.
"The army is subordinate to the government and not the other way around,” he said.
Netanyahu has expressed his willingness to negotiate with the opposition, but his camp seems determined to pass the reform bill, which will be voted on in parliament in the coming days.
Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said that threats to stop military service to press the government undermines what he called democracy and security.
The overhaul is a three-stage process, and its first stage was passed by the parliament on July 11.
The bill stirred massive protests across the occupied territories, and it is predicted that if it is finally passed, the security situation will worsen.
Efraim Inbar, the head of Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, believes that insubordination among the paratroopers and air force personnel exposes the Israeli regime to many risks while it is already in a dangerous, strained, and unstable region. He adds that Israel's survival depends to a large extent on its military strength, and this fact is clear to all residents of the occupied territories.
Ariel Haiman, an Israeli national security researcher, suggests that the reaction of the army commanders to the disobedience has so far remained within the level of clarification of substantial risks and warnings that in case of further insubordination and rebellion and decline in the qualifications and capabilities of the reservists, the army strength will be at stake.
Antoine Shalhat, an Israeli affairs researcher, believes “it is mainly about legislation crisis, coup against the whole judicial system, and change of the Jewish democratic government system.
Reservists’ role in Israeli army power
The core of the Israeli military doctrine believes that Tel Aviv should never lose a war and the army planners think that this goal is reachable only through a defense strategy that is capable of quick and massive mobilization of forces for battle against the enemy. But this army is now stands on shaky foundations and cannot protect security of the occupied territories.
The Israeli military consists of three forces: air force, navy and army. According to the latest stated statistics, the Israeli armed forces have 176,500 active military personnel, out of 133,000 people in the army, which includes 107,000 conscripts. The navy has 9,500 active-duty sailors and 34,000 are serving in the air force. The total reserve forces are 565,000. Given these statistics, the number of active soldiers and reserve forces includes nearly 90 percent of the military forces, and since the reserve forces make the backbone of the battle forces, the insubordination is a serious threat to Tel Aviv, because in the event of a full-scale war outside the borders of the occupied territories, it cannot rely on this shaky body.
The disobedience of the reserve forces, which are vital to Israeli security, whether in the air force, cyber security forces or special forces, puts great pressure on the heads of the army and government.
Netanyahu and his hardline cabal never thought that the judiciary reforms will cause such a security and political crisis that sinks all of the occupied territories, but now they find themselves surrounded by a pile of challenges that can change the fate of the Israeli regime.
The Israeli military is now immersed in a deep political quagmire, and this issue will cause a crisis of confidence in the military apparatus, not only among the reserve forces but also the regular army forces.
The rebellion of the reservists will also damage not only the army but also the Israeli society and seriously hits the trust between the military and the political body and affects the political decision making especially when it comes to security issues and dealing with tensions on various fronts, specifically with Lebanon.
Worries about northern front
With the increase in military disobedience, the Israeli leaders grow obsessed with possibility of outbreak of conflict with Hezbollah. National Research Center of Tel Aviv University has warned about losing deterrence against Hezbollah, adding that clashes with Hezbollah will cause a strategically dangerous situation.
The leaders in Tel Aviv, extremely worried about the rebellion of troops and reserve forces in the army, have resorted to the threats of Hezbollah to prevent this issue and have warned the army forces that if the army is weakened, it will provide a good opportunity for the Lebanese resistance movement to attack the occupied territories, but this tactic has not worked and day by day more soldiers in the army leave their duty.
Having in mind that the Israeli military in its cross-border battles relies on the air force and particularly reserve pilots, mutiny of hundreds of reservists will leave Netanyahu’s hands empty to counter cross-border threats in case if a war.
Amid the tensions on the northern front with Lebanon and intensification of the protests, Israeli home crises began to bite.
The mutiny is not limited to military body, and there is also obedience among staffers of Mossad and Shin Bet, but they are not given much media focus.
There have been reports of presence of Mossad protesters in the weekly anti-government demonstrations in recent months, which show that Israeli regime is erosion-stricken and deeper political crisis will bring this to surface at all security levels.
Having in mind that Israel is a security regime and relies on army power for survival, the political leaders are strongly concerned about military insubordination.
Currently, gaps within military body is the Achilles heel of Israelis who constantly seek adventures in Palestine and the region, and any powerful blow can, as Israeli President Issac Herzog several times warned, lead to Israel's demise from within and turn its 80th anniversary into a pipe dream.
