Alwaght- Whereas some political parties try to put the skids under Iraq's government formation attempts, the majority-holding Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF) has taken the initiative to form a new cabinet and end the months-long political stalemate in the country through engaging in new coalitions. To this end, a high-ranking Baghdad delegation including the parliament speaker, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) president, and the prime minister post candidate visited Erbil in recent days to discuss with Kurdistan region's officials speeding up the efforts to form a new cabinet. Although the differences over the president post candidate remain, signs carrying promise of a settlement have been glowing recently. Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi said that the parliament will reopen to elect a president on Thursday. Once the president is elected, the way for PM election will be paved.
To discuss the recent Iraqi developments, Alwaght talked to West Asia affairs expert Hassan Hanizadeh, seeking answers to a set of questions regarding the unfolding Iraqi political conditions.
Alwaght: In recent days, a Shiite and Sunni delegation visited Erbil to talk to Kurdistan region's leaders over president election. How likely do you think are these talks to resolve the political crisis in Iraq?
Hanizadeh: The Iraqi problems are so intricate that a visit of a delegation of Iraqi political coalitions to Erbil for talks with Kurdish leaders will not help settle them. Iraq's top challenge is Muqtada al-Sadr and his political bloc Saerun that held 73 seats before their collective resignation on June 12 and still insist that the parliament must be dissolved for an early election. The second challenge is the discord of the political blocs over a PM choice. The Coordination Framework clings onto Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as its candidate. Some Sunni and Kurdish parties oppose al-Sudani for his closeness to the top Shiite cleric Sayed Ali al-Sistani. Saerun insists on picking Ja’afar al-Sadr, the current Iraqi ambassador to Britain and Muqtada’s cousin. Others propose extension of the caretaker PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi for a year until early elections are held. The Coordination Framework opposes the idea.
Yet another challenge to the Iraqi political process is election of an agreed-upon president, a post over which the Kurds are still at loggerheads. Because the parliamentary faction affiliated with the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Masoud Barzani, emphasizes the choice of former Iraqi foreign minister Hoshiyar Zebari for the presidency. This is while most of the members of the Shiite and Sunni factions are against the election of Hoshyar Zebari, because they accuse him of misappropriation of public property while in office as the minister of finance from 2014-2016, and they do not consider him a worthy and reliable choice for the presidency. They are in favor of extending the presidential term of Barham Salih, the current president of Iraq, but due to his affiliation with the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, he has faced opposition from Erbil authorities and their allies. Given this state of suspension, it seems that Iraq is now living a period of political crisis, and if the factions do not quickly strike a final deal to elect a president and a prime minister, it will face great political and social problems in the future.
Alwaght: Why have not yet the Kurds agreed on a president choice?
Hanizadeh: Kurdistan region's leaders, mainly of Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, believe that during his presidency, Salih undermined the autonomous region's position in Iraq and did not do much to boost its status as it was expected from him. Most of the key positions in the Kurdistan region are in the hands of the Democratic Party, because after the death of Jalal Talabani, the former president of Iraq and the leader of the Patriotic Union, the Union suffered organizational weakness. Therefore, the Kurdish parliamentary bloc, whose majority is formed by the Kurds of the Democratic Party, insists that an option affiliated with this party should be chosen for the post of president.
According to reports, after the meeting of the parliament members with Masoud Barzani, the former president of the Kurdistan region, and a lengthy meeting with the speaker Al-Halbousi, agreements have been made to finalize the two presidential and prime ministerial options. Seemingly, the issue of election of al-Sudani as the prime minister has been finalized in the eyes of the Coordination Framework, but the Kurds have not yet announced their preferred option for the presidency.
Alwaght: If the Kurds fail to agree a presidential candidate, what will be the Coordination Framework's options to end the political standoff?
Hanizadeh: The Shiite choice is extention of Salih presidency and premiership of al-Sudani, both opposed to by al-Sadr. And if no agreement is reached, the political circumstances will not change but it is likely Iraq sinks into a security and political instability cycle.
Alwaght: Last year, Sadrist-Sunni-Kurdish coalition was formed but in recent months it unraveled and was replaced by the ‘State Management’ alliance led by Coordination Framework. What factors have influenced these changes? Can this new alliance hold up or will it collapse like its predecessors?
Hanizadeh: The coalition of political factions in the parliament is a coalition of self-interest that derives from the existing polarizations within the Iraqi government. During its influential presence in the parliamentary, social and political arenas, Muqtada al-Sadr's movement sometimes allied with Shiite factions, sometimes with Kurds, and sometimes with Sunnis, and this indicates the lack of political and intellectual stability among the leaders of this powerful movement. Al-Sadr's insistence on dissolving the parliament and holding early elections created many problems for the government and parliament and reduced the possibility of reaching a comprehensive agreement almost to zero.
Alwaght: Given the long government vacuum, what would be the priorities of the new cabinet in case of its formation?
Hanizadeh: In case of a government formation, the prime minister's hand should be open for ministers picking. But if the blocs demand shares in the cabinet, the prime minister will be naturally incapable of introducing fundamental changes to political and executive matters. Moreover, the future government should act decisively in internal security and regional and international relations and prevent the rife interference of some Arab countries in the country's affairs and redefine its relations with Iraq's neighbors away from US interference.
Alwaght: Based on these priorities, does a caretaker government or a regular government best secure the Iraqi interests?
Hanizadeh: In the current conditions, the best solution is election of a president and a prime minister to steer clear of parliament dissolution until the remaining three years of the parliament life end, and formation of a caretaker government and holding early elections in the current conditions that some terrorist groups are lying in ambush in various parts of Iraq is not in the interest of the country.
