Alwaght- On Wednesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus non-member countries declared that they intend to cut output by 2 million barrels per day and extend for a year the agreement between OPEC and Russia and other major non-member states.
While Saudi Arabia and the UAE argued that the deterioration of the economic outlook in the next year and the drop in oil prices in the past few months were the main drivers for the decision, it was interpreted by the White House and Western countries as a step for supporting Russia. From the point of view of Western policy makers, this action of OPEC+ gives Moscow a leg up on the eve of imposing another round of sanctions against Russian oil exports.
Bin Salman turns down Biden
The supply cut date, which starts from early November and just a week before the Congress mid-term elections, is horrific news for the Democrats, perhaps showing the Saudi will to deal a blow to Biden by weakening his position against his rivals.
The White House is worried that with the increase in oil prices on the eve of the mid-term elections on November 8, the scales will be tipped in favor of the Republicans and the Democrats will lose the Congress. It is impossible to ignore the fact that the defeat of the Democrats in the Congress is a good news for the Saudis. The Democratic-led Congress has long been critical of Saudi Arabia, and even recently introduced legislation to withdraw US forces and missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The Saudi and Emirati move ran counter to predictions that followed Biden’s July visit to Persian Gulf region. Whereas Biden withdrew his campaign-time stances against Saudi Arabia and exposed himself to internal and international criticism, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi with their decision within OPEC+ demonstrated the futility of the American president's Saudi visit agenda.
It seems that the Saudi are uninterested in broad partnership with Biden administration and on the other hand do not wish to abandon their growing cooperation with Russia.
Future of US relations with UAE and Saudi Arabia
As expected, the decision to cut oil output by Saudi Arabia and the UAE is overshadowing the US relations with them. Following the announcement by OPEC+, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Washington was considering various options in its relations with Saudi Arabia.
“As for the relationship (with Riyadh) going forward, we're reviewing a number of response options. We're consulting closely with Congress," Blinken said at a news conference in Lima alongside his Peruvian counterpart.
In initial reactions, the Democrats of the Congress on Thursday demanded reduction of weapons sales to Riyadh.
The growing military and security reliance of the Arab kingdom on the US in the past decades has always been a tool at the disposal of different American administrations to force Riyadh comply with their regional policies.
However, the decline of American global power and hegemony in recent years has led the Saudis to reduce their reliance on Washington, and from a strategic point of view, Saudi Arabia's action runs counter to the American policy that aims at bringing Russia to its knees in Ukraine.
Having in mind that Russia is a nuclear power and cannot be threatened with a military response, the West is focusing on economic sanctions and targeting Russia's oil and gas revenues in its push to foist a defeat on Moscow. But at the same time, they should deal with the consequences of cutting energy supplies. Hitting the huge Russian energy revenues is a riddle that Biden administration is trying to solve by introducing a ‘price cap’ to the Russian oil.
Now that Putin has managed to greatly contain the preliminary impacts of Western sanctions and save the value of the national currency, rubles, and hard currency reserves grew to $300 billion, namely to pre-war levels, the decision by OPEC+ practically serves to neutralize the proposed price cap for the Russian oil.
