Alwaght- Though the Russian forces are holding many of eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, the battlefield conditions have been stagnant over the past weeks and there have been considerable news of victories by the Russians or the Ukrainians. This condition makes it hard for experts predict the fate of war. Still there are some scenarios that can change the war's outcome if they take place.
The first scenario, which many experts agree on, is that Russia's goal from the very beginning of the war was to completely seize the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, and with the independence of these regions and their annexation to the territory of Russia, Moscow will declare the war over. Therefore, the Russians have been successful in realization of the goals of their military campaign so far, and the statements of the authorities of Donetsk and Luhansk indicate that these areas will soon become part of Russian territory after holding a referendum. Although after the retreat of the Russian forces from the north of the capital Kiev and focusing on the eastern regions, this scenario was further strengthened and created some hopes for the shorter war period, but the future of this war is still shrouded in uncertainty.
Although the Russians have not yet commented on the limitation of the scope of their operations to the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, this issue has been on the agenda of the Moscow authorities since the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. Despite the fact that Russia managed to achieve a decisive victory by maintaining the eastern and southern regions and cutting off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea coast and creating a land connection to the Crimean Peninsula and since Kremlin had recognized the independence of the Eastern regions under a law, it does not seem that the Russian operation will stop at the autonomous regions.
Continuing war until final victory
The second scenario that the West and the Russian maneuver on more than other scenarios is continuing the war until final victory in Ukraine. As it can be seen from the words of the Moscow officials, the main operation has not yet started, so it can be said that Russia is eyeing other regions, and deeper progress is likely in the future. The fact that senior Russian officials have repeatedly said that in the future, the country of Ukraine will be removed from the world map shows that all the territory of Ukraine is target of Russia's military plan, and in other words, the victory in Donetsk and Luhansk is a prelude for continued progress. European and American officials also estimate that the war will continue for a long time. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky even has gone further and claimed that Russia is looking to occupy other countries beyond Ukraine, and attacking Ukraine is only the beginning of the story.
On the other hand, the field developments in recent weeks indicate that the Russians are preparing for a big operation so that they can seize other parts in a flash. The Russians have always accused the NATO of expansion eastward to their borders and promised that they will deal with these measures with all their might. Now that their boots are on the ground in Ukraine, they are trying to seize this opportunity to punish the Western rivals and ensure the security of their borders far away.
Meanwhile, there are some issues that make Russians more hopeful about their advances. One is that Western officials and media have repeatedly admitted in recent months that Western arsenals are running out. If the weapons provided to Kiev— which have had a small effect on the course of development on the battlegrounds— decrease, the Russians can advance more powerfully. The Western countries have claimed in recent weeks that by buying drones from countries like Iran, Russia intends to broaden its weapons stockpiles for a long-term war. Although Russia has not had a shortage of weapons so far, long wars have always been problematic for countries, and it is not assured that Moscow will not face a shortage of weapons and finances in the future.
Moreover, Russian officials said that in the next months, they plan to station their nuclear missiles in Belarus, signaling that Moscow sees the current victories trivial. Less than six months from the war, the West began to feel a fuel crisis caused by sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons exports. If this situation continues, the Western countries may give their military aids to Ukraine a second thought in the future. This is a great opportunity for the Russians to expand their areas of control in Ukraine. The West tried to prevent Russia from earning energy income with extensive sanctions, but it delivered the reverse and the countries that the West had counted on to punish Moscow did not comply with the sanctions, and Russian isolation proved a failure. Now the public opinion of the West considers Moscow the main winner of the Ukraine war as it faced the ranks of the US and its allies alone.
As a conclusion, with the Russian stances suggesting that Moscow with push forward for the final victory and Ukraine and its Western allies pushing for retaking the seized areas and imposing their conditions on the Russians, a clear outlook for war is unthinkable. Actually, everything will be determined by military and economic variables. Therefore, we need to wait and see to which way the scale will tip.
