Alwaght- On April 18, Turkey's Defense Minister Hulusi Akar declared an air and ground operation in northern Iraq targeting Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Following the announcement, Turkish warplanes carried out airstrikes and commandos and "special forces" were sent to combat fighters of the PKK, blacklisted as a terrorist organization by Ankara.
The fresh anti-Kurdish operation comes as on June 15, 2020 Turkey conducted its Operation Claw-Eagle in northern Iraq by deployment of commandos to Haftanin region. Two days later, Ankara started the operation's second stage, codenamed Claw-Tiger. On April 23 next year, it launched operations Claw-Lightening and Thunderbolt.
The new campaign met massive reactions from an array of Iraqi figures including President Barham Salih, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, Sadrist Movement's chief Muqtada al-Sadr, National Wisedom Movement's head Sayed Ammar Hakim, and leaders of Fatah parliamentary coalition. The Kurdish region's leaders, however, have so far declined to make official statements in condemnation, feeding the speculation that fresh attacks were coordinated between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Masrour Barzani, nephew of the autonomous region's last-word holder and former President Masoud Barzani.
Secret Barzani-Erdogan agreement driving new Turkish operation
Many political observers appear to agree that the Turkish attacks on northern Iraq are a product of a direct coordination between Erbil and Ankara leaders. Actually, the new round of Turkish military strikes on northern Iraq has begun following the visit of KRG's Prime Minister Masrur Barzani to Ankara on April 15, and his meeting with the Turkish president. Even more remarkable is the fact that following his visit to Ankara and also in the middle of the beginning of the Turkish military operation in northern Iraq, Barzani headed a high-level delegation on April 18 to London.
With this in mind, three issues can be raised: First, Barzani's visit to London, coinciding with the start of the Turkish military operation, implies the convergence of Erbil's positions with Ankara. Besides, Barzani has tried to circumvent much of the pressures caused by the Turkish campaign by not being in Iraq.
The second point is that the Barzanis have once again shown that they spare no chance to bring foreign and occupying actors into Iraq, especially the US, the Israeli regime, and Turkey. This approach has drawn the ire of a broad domain of Iraqi politicians and journalists, and public.
The third point is that the evidence points to the fact that Barzani and the Turkish government have reached an agreement on coordination with Ankara over strikes on positions of PKK, a rival to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and transferring Kurdish gas to the Western markets via Turkey. In fact, Barzani's visit to Britain greatly promotes the hypothesis that after coordination in Ankara, the KRG's PM traveled to London to advance gas transfer plans.
Baghdad the losing side if Ankara-Erbil agreement implemented
For years, the autonomous Kurdish region inked energy sales deals with various foreign countries in opposition to the Iraqi constitution and leaving Baghdad in the dark. The major agreement was struck with Turkey in 2009, under which Ankara provided a terminal, Port of Ceyhan, for shipping to Europe the Kurdistan region's oil. This Erbil approach has over the past two decades been a source of disputes between the centeral government and the KRG. In 2014, things went so serious between the two that Baghdad cut off Erbil share from the federal budget.
At the present time, amid West's energy and economic problems as a result of the war in Ukraine, it seems that the KRG, more than ever, sees the ground prepared for shipping gas to the West via Turkey. The West for its need for gas amid energy dispute with its main supplier Russia and Turkey for its economic challenges are interested to make gas flow to Europe via Turkey. On the other hand, Erbil needs cash from gas exports to fund its government and thus deal with Baghdad with a stronger independence of position.
These facts considered, Baghdad would be the biggest loser of the Barzanis' deals with Turkey. After all on the one hand, as a result of the Erbil green light to the Ankara military campaign, Iraq's territorial sovereignty and integrity is challenged, and on the other hand, as a result of an agreement without coordination with Baghdad, Iraq's gas revenues will be out of the central government's hand.
Ankara pretexts amid Iraq government vacuum
The intrusion of the Iraqi territory for chasing the PKK is an empty excuse. If Ankara is serious about combating the PKK and is not abusing the Iraqi political limbo, it can easily make security arrangements with the Iraqi government to thwart PKK-posed threats.
From one dimension, Erbil's teaming up with Ankara and giving it a green light to launch its attack on the Iraqi territory should be blamed on some actors in Baghdad.
Iraq has been in a stalemate since the October 2021 elections and if there was inter-Shiite unity and some political parties have not sought monopolizing the power and allowed government formation to go ahead, Barzani and Turkey could certainly not bypass Baghdad easily. Perhaps al-Sadr should answer a question: How is your ally KDP this easily disregarding the centeral government and national sovereignty by bringing Turkey to Iraq? Perhaps it is time for the Shiite cleric to reconsider his alliance with other blocs and take a positive step to national Iraqi interests before it is too late.
