Alwaght- Considering the relationship between domestic, regional and international variables in developments in Bahrain, and taking into account all the opportunities and limitations of the revolutionaries in Bahrain, we may conclude that a comprehensive plan in which there is widespread use of the capacities of the revolutionaries can greatly improve the current situation, paving the way for final victory.
Currently, there are two main views that have received the attention of the local and regional sponsors of Bahrain revolution which are briefly discussed in the following lines:
Agreement and participation
According to this view, as Bahrain is a small country and has a small population, virtually it does not have enough independence and from the past it has always been affected by policies of foreign governments, especially the Western ones. This small country, on the one hand is the backyard of Saudi Arabia, and on the other hand hosts the US Fifth Fleet headquarters. Therefore, Bahrain does not have the necessary independence required for the administration of the country.
Since Saudi Arabia and the United States do not allow any major changes in Bahrain and provide the necessary financial and military investment required in this regard, Bahrain crisis will not easily be resolved. Thus, with regard to the country's specific circumstances, the solutions to the crisis are consensus, political participation of those who oppose the House of Khalifa and also giving consent to the status quo. This way, although the problem cannot make fundamental changes, at least it can secure some concessions for Bahrain's Shiites.
Resistance and Change
The second view is contrary to the first view and holds that Saudi Arabia and the US are not as powerful as they used to be, and currently they do not have the conditions and facilities required to manage and lead the regional crises, to the extent that power of Saudi Arabia has been undermined and the United States has been forced to change its strategies and regional policies. US failures in areas such as Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Saudis’ lack of success in areas such as Lebanon and Syria, indicates a decline in the effectiveness of these two countries on regional and international developments. Given the new regional and global conditions, the option of resistance of Bahraini people and the continuation of the protests in Bahrain and their emphasis on modification or change in power structure could gradually prove fruitful and bear important results. However, in this approach, revolutionaries should avoid provoking the conflicts and radicalization of the situation, and through resistance and continuity of activities, they should make plans to achieve satisfactory results in future planning.
To enact this scenario, the limitations of regional and international actors in providing support for the regime of Al Khalifa and Saudi Arabia should be accounted. However, the reviews and analysis of the sources of power and the vulnerability of forces supporting the view of the Islamic Republic of Iran is especially effective and would be necessary.
Bahrain is the smallest country among the revolution-torn countries and the fate of the country's political upheaval and revolution is linked to regional and international circumstances; nevertheless, it is necessary to avoid from any retreat and provide the appropriate solutions, infrastructure in the society for a mid-term or even long-term resistance, both psychologically and materially. In addition, alternative or innovative ideas for resistance with limited cost can increase the interest of the public in achieving the revolution. To prevent massive public spending in this way, it should be converted to a strategic approach.
Bahrain revolution should take advantage of the capacity of Shiite Maraji (religious references) and forces in Iraq and enable the Shiite clerics and religious and political communities in Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries. One of the functions of Iraqi Shiite factions could be benefiting existing connections to transmit the appropriate message to major international actors on the scene to reduce their concerns about their future developments in the region. It is quite essential to make use of the capacity of Turkey and define an effective role for this country. To benefit the capacity of Hezbollah is an independent subject that should not be ignored. Eventually, the central role of the politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran must also be providing psychological, political and diplomatic support to prevent the support of regional and international actors from Saudi Arabia and the House of Khalifa.
Given these factors, the continuation of the revolutionary resistance of the people of Bahrain, along with all the existing potentials can lead to the victory of the good against the evil.
