Alwaght - After last year's events in Kubani, in the recent month alarm bells rang for Turkish government when the Kurdish forces of the People's Defense Units (YPG) took full control of Tel Abyad strategic town in mid-June, and managed to connect together two Cantons of Jazira and Kubani through Tel Abyad. Although the Syrian Kurdistan is not an integrated region, it is comprised of three Cantonese regions, Kubani, Afrin and Hasakah. However, the Democratic Union Party (affiliated to the PKK) have created small regional governments which are somehow autonomous. This has raised Ankara's concerns over the Syrian Kurdistan. Turkey's main concerns are as follow :
A more powerful Democratic Union Party
The fact that Kurdish forces of the People's Defense Units have made some advances in Syria and now are more powerful, has been a source of concern for Turkey as Ankara asserts that YPG is the Syrian wing of PKK terrorist group. For this reason, the day before the liberation of Tel Abyad, the Turkish president voiced his concern and reiterated that "the world must understand our sensitivity to the issue". In fact, Turkey believes that as the Democratic Union Party in Syrian Kurdistan and areas bordering with Turkey becomes more powerful, tensions between Turkey and this party would be increased. Besides, it would actually undermine the Syrian supporters of Ankara, even it may affect them within Turkey and in its Kurdish regions. Turkey's national security is what concerns most for Ankara. Therefore, if the political and military activities of the Democratic Union Party of Syria go beyond the Syrian border, and reach Turkey, or if this party collaborates with the PKK, Turkey will be strongly affected .
Change in demography of the region and decline in power of Syrian Turkmens
Turkey has always claimed to have supported the Turkmen of Iraq and Syria as they are of the same ethnic group. While Turkey had overlooked the massacre of Iraqi Turkmens by ISIS, it is more sensitive about Syrian Turkmens, because Turkey fears that the role and the influence of the Turkmens in northern Syria would be reduced as the Kurds become more powerful. In the meantime, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President has frequently accused the Kurds of genocide against the Turkmen and Syrian Arab oppositions, trying to provoke the Syrian oppositions against the Kurds. No proof or evidence was provided about the genocide allegedly committed by the Kurds, however, the policy of Turkish government to change the demography of areas near Turkish border in favor of the Kurds, could pose great risks .
Establishment of a Syrian Kurdistan
Many Turkish leaders believe that the Democratic Union party is a source of insecurity and is inclined towards divergence and separation. The Turks believe that, given that the Syrian Kurdish areas are backed by Kurdish Democratic Union Party and they border with Turkey, this would undermine the independence and territorial integrity of Turkey. Therefore, Turkey strongly opposes to the formation of a Syrian Kurdistan similar to Iraq. Accordingly, Turkey is not indifferent to any activities of ethnic minorities which might endanger the territorial integrity of Syria, rather Turkey tries to take them into account, in any plans for the future of Turkey. As Erdogan stated: "I am addressing the whole world: we will never allow a state to be formed in northern Syria, south of our border ".
Turkey's poor relations with ISIS
Until recently, Turkey's 800 kilometer border with Syria was controlled by a range of actors, including the pro-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), ISIS, Jaish al-Fatah (dominated by al-Nusra Front affiliated to al-Qaeda), some moderate elements and the rebels of Free Syrian Army. But recent victories of the PYD in Syrian Kurdistan and border areas near Turkey on the one hand have created more challenges in Turkey's relations with groups backed by Ankara; On the one hand strained the ISIS relations with Turkey. In fact, ISIS somehow advocated Turkey's policies and used to act as Turkey wished. Although Turkey has called PKK and ISIS terrorist organizations, and seemingly has no ties with ISIS, many people accuse Turkey of supporting the ISIS terrorist group. Turkey was trying to enable ISIS to destroy the Kurdish areas of Syria or let ISIS wrest control over the areas. However, current conditions has raised Turkey's concerns, as there are currently more challenges for Turkey and other countries to support ISIS and other Syrian opposition groups through Turkey's soil. Turkey had formerly set some conditions to join the US-led coalition against ISIS. For instance, Turkey asked for creation of buffer zone in border areas between Turkey and Syria, a no-fly zone, ouster of Bashar al-Assad, etc. Now, Turkey sees its national interests at risk if the US and the West embark on strengthening the Kurds in Syria .
Turkey's future approach to Syrian Kurdistan
Over the past four years, the Turkish government has been trying to persuade its Western allies to make direct military intervention in Syria. But, recent developments in northern Syria have made Turkey to consider the feasibility of military action in the territory of its southern neighbor. However , the initial remarks made by some political leaders in recent weeks and red lines set by some parties about convergence with the Justice and Development Party have created serious difficulties in the process of forming a coalition government, as the People's Democratic Party and the People's Republican Party do not advocate military intervention in Syria .
Turkey has acted paradoxically in dealing with Syrian opposition and ISIS. To put pressure on the Syrian government and its supporters by ISIS is a favorable opportunity for Turkey; however, supporting this notorious terrorist group would call Turkey's intentions into question. Therefore, it seems that Turkey is seeking to create a secure area in its border with Turkey, or it demands more military operations to support Free Syrian Army, and oppose Bashar al-Assad's army and the Kurdish Forces .
