Alwaght | News & Analysis Website

Alwaght_ Recep Tayyip Erdogan has for years sought to change the political system of Turkey. He enacted his scenario step by step and made attempts to lay the ground for such a change. That is why no one was surprised when he marginalized his longtime friend so that he can be elected to office and head for Chankaya palace as the Chief Executive of Turkey. However, Mr. President currently has to respond to serious challenges.
According to the Turkish constitution, two-thirds of the votes in the Grand National Assembly are required for such a change. This means that if Erdogan wants the semi-parliamentary, semi-presidential system to be converted to a presidential one, he should win two-thirds support in the 550-seat assembly. Though, it is not easy to achieve such a consensus. Erdogan and his party, Justice and Development not only in the current Parliament do not have such a position, but also he is unlikely to win such a support in the upcoming election.
Key parliamentary election
Less than two weeks are left to a new round of parliamentary election to be held in Turkey, and Turkish political parties and groups are in a competition to win the most seats in the future legislative branch of Turkey. However, what makes this election more important than the others is Recep Tayyip’ decision to change the constitution. Public opinion surveys show that the JDP is facing serious difficulties to gain two thirds or and even less to form a coalition government, he might even be forced to ask for other parties’ help.  
However, when they intend to change the constitution, it would naturally be more difficult. Erdogan, who has long sought to depict a new face of his government to Kurdish movements, initiated peace talks with the Kurds and made a considerable progress. However, the poll results show that Erdogan’s movement toward the Kurds has tainted his reputation among the nationalist and right-wing Turkey. To the extent that many believe that JDP has dramatically lost its votes in the upcoming election.
Accordingly, Erdogan has chosen another way to successfully attain its ideal, and he is now turning to the nationalist and right-wing movements. Erdogan in the past few weeks has rejected the negotiations over the Kurdish problem and has argued there is no such thing as a Kurdish issue in Turkey; nonetheless, he was one of the founders of Kurdish negotiations with the government. With these actions, Erdogan has again tainted the image of Justice and Development Party in Kurdish territories. However, some political observers believe that the new decision made by Recep Tayyip Erdogan could help him improve the image of his party. Meanwhile, Mr. Erdogan has come to this conclusion that he might be able to fulfill his dream with the help of nationalist movements, something that might be difficult to do with the help of the Kurds.
Anyway, Erdogan is in difficult circumstances and his decision can affect his political future and that of the JDP. Accordingly, it should not be surprising that he has made so contradictory statements in the past few weeks. In fact, the poll results and final analysis would help him change the policies of his Justice and Development Party.
Nevertheless, we should not neglect the role of the Republican People's Party, known as CHP, in our analysis of the political equations in Turkey. Although this Left-wing political Party, for more than a decade did not have a high position among the people of Turkey, its political alignment has largely changed, but the role of the CHP as an opposition party in Turkey's political system cannot be ignored in Turkey’s political developments. However, we may conclude that the role of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party is more prominent than other factors, particularly now that in the political analysis of the Turkey's election, economy is the most determining factor. And that is the field that Recep Tayyip is almost in the lead, and none of his competitors can overpower the Justice and Development.