Alwaght- In recent years, the Caucasus region, due to its geopolitical and geo-economic nature, has grown highly significant for the regional and transregional powers. The Caucasus region is an intersection of strategic cooperation, however, eruption of war there and then entering in a no-war-no-peace status have added to the complexity of the security equations of this region. Some regional players like the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey, on the one hand, are trying to make grounds for peace because of heavy security costs of conflict conditions.
0On the other hand, such superpowers as the US are trying to protract the complexity of security conditions in a bid to maximize their interests in Caucasus’ countries. To put it another way, while the regional players are moving to stabilize as much as they can the security conditions there, the transregional powers seek further interests through complicating the security circumstances there.
Accordingly, because of a complex historical record between Armenia and Azerbaijan, beside multiplicity of the powers engaged in Karabakh, it seems that no regional power or even powers from outside of the region are able to mediate between Baku and Yerevan in their recent conflicts over the disputed Karabakh region. It looks that even the activities of groups like OSCE Minsk Group- or the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe- are not going to yield results. The only practical outcome of Minsk Group so far has been implementing the first article of the peace deal which is reaching a truce. The cessation of hostilities has so far seen many violations by the two sides, or they have threatened to revoke it and start a new war.
Meanwhile, as an influential and strong country regionally and internationally and also because it holds bonds and ties with both of opposing sides in Karabakh dispute, Iran as a mediator pushes Azerbaijan and Armenia towards a settlement of crisis, especially that protraction of deep region’s tensions, like Karabakh dispute, is not in favor of Armenia and Azerbaijan nor the Islamic Republic. As it is of great capacities and capabilities, Iran is able to contribute very importantly to resolution of the conflict. Nevertheless, it seems that so far a Tehran’s mediation offer in Karabakh situation has not received a warm welcome by the involved sides, specifically Azerbaijan. The Russians, too, are not that interested in the Iranian offer as Moscow thinks that an Iranian mediation in Karabakh crisis could undermine Russia’s role in regional conflicts’ settlement.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic for its existing foreign policy potentials should more than ever show a sensitivity for a mediation in Karabakh dissension because in addition to giving Tehran the chance to boost ties with sides involved in the dispute, it could qualify the Islamic Republic for playing an influential role, especially that Iran has many historical and cultural bonds with both Armenia and Azerbaijan from which Iran's foreign policy makers should take the most possible advantage.
Generally, the Islamic Republic of Iran in past few years has persistently followed a policy of reconciliation, balance-making and compromise concerning Karabakh issue. In fact, Tehran in its policy making has tried to make a balance between the neighboring Caucasus countries and move towards de-conflicting between them. In Iran’s viewpoint, the regional stability, which urges existing conflicts settlement and preventing grounds of fresh escalation of tensions, is feasible only through regional collaborations. Also, Iran thinks that the transregional powers have not done- or have been unable to do- any effective and positive work for harmony in the region. For instance the OSCE Minsk Group for several years has tried to settle Karabakh dispute but it has failed to come up with an outcome in practice. The only job of the European organization has been “negotiation for negotiation.”
The Islamic Republic in past few years has shown a good will and made so much efforts for Karabakh dispute settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In addition to presenting some models of peace, Tehran has also shouldered the responsibility of after-ceasefire processes. Presenting humanitarian aids to the people of Azerbaijan, Iran has tried to reduce the damages of Armenian-Azeri conflict. Thereby, Iran’s presence as a mediator in the warring side’s dialogue could result in final resolution of Karabakh conflicts.
It should not be ignored that geographically Iran is one of the most vulnerable countries once war sparks in the Caucasus region. Actually, due to proximity to the conflict areas, the clashes could inadvertently spill over to Iran’s territory, as in past few days in Azeri-Armenian clashes three mortar shells landed in a village in Iran’s Kudaferin border town, northwest of the country. The interesting point is that it is not clear if the Armenian or Azeri forces in Karabakh have fired the shells into the Iranian territory.
Despite the fact that the Iranian armed forces have announced readiness to respond to such incidents, it must be put into consideration that possible clashes could bring forth many damages. Additionally, any spark of war in the region could lead to the refugees’ flowing to the Iranian soil, which could impose many social, economic and political pressures on the Islamic Republic. It is for this reason that Tehran sees intensified clashes in Karabakh as causing insecurity and asked for immediate ceasefire.
Iran seeks settling Karabakh dispute for a couple of reasons:
1. Military operations next to the Iranian borders pose serious risks to the Islamic Republic’s security, especially that protraction of the dispute or renewed fighting between Baku and Yerevan would pave the way for deployment of Russian or Western military forces, which is certainly against Iran’s security interests in the region.
2. A protracted conflict could lead to a variety of economic and social challenges including immigration and war refugees’ influxes. Iran hosted nearly four million Iraqi and Afghan refugees after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Any of the Iraqi and Afghan refugees in their place have caused problems for Iran. So, a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could result in a huge number of refugees flowing into Iran’s northern borders. Certainly, this is not a favorable issue for Tehran and it could impose heavy burdens on Iran.
3. The war between Armenia could end in one of them winning the war. This would mean that the region would lose its balance of power. This situation, too, is not in favor of the Islamic Republic. Tehran seeks a state of balance of power between Baku and Yerevan. In fact, neither a strong Azerbaijan nor a powerful Armenia are favorable for Iran. Therefore, both of them should stay balanced through pressuring one another. Iran has always welcomed initiatives which aim at settling the Armenian-Azeri conflicts without any changes in the internationally recognized border drawings.
4. Azeri-Armenian clashes could disrupt Iran’s full access to Europe. Of course such an issue is not in line with Iran’s national interests.
5. Eruption of a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan could bring foreign forces into the Caucasus region. This again runs against the Iranian security interests. Due to links of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the US and Russia, any renewed clashes could lead to collision of Russia with the US and possible deployment of forces to the region. Surely, Iran, which wants a solution of dispute without superpowers’ presence in Caucasus, sees foreign forces deployment a direct threat to its stability.
6. Regionally, Iran and Turkey are in a race to play a role and hold sway in the Caucasian republics which appeared after collapse of the former Soviet Union. Specifically in post-Soviet years, the West and the US have made efforts to present Turkey as a pattern of governing for the Caucasus’ states and even give Ankara the role of leadership of the regional policy making. However, it seems that Tehran enjoys a bigger chance than Ankara to play a regional role at least in pushing for a settlement of Karabakh conflict between Baku and Yerevan. Actually, an enmity between the Turks and Armenian has provide Iran with an opportunity to rise against the US policies in the region, especially that the Islamic Republic is the only regional power that has the chance to play the role of an unbiased mediator between the opposing sides.
