Could reports of Baghdad's agreement with Washington bolster optimism for America's departure from the Middle East, or is there another scenario unfolding in the region?
In recent decades, successive US administrations have unveiled ambitious plans for a fresh foreign policy direction, focusing on a "Pivot to Asia" strategy, which has facilitated the possibility of "withdrawal" from the Middle East. However, these administrations have encountered significant criticism and setbacks in these endeavors, sometimes leading to the alienation of America's allies regarding China and Russia.
This underscores the failure of US governments to disengage from the Middle East. In line with this, the Biden administration, akin to its predecessors, has pledged to diminish its presence in the Middle East to safeguard the interests of the American people. This commitment commenced with the pledge to halt arms sales to Saudi Arabia at the outset of its term and culminated in the cessation of America's involvement in Afghanistan and the withdrawal of support for the Yemen conflict.
Nevertheless, America's posture under Biden gradually eroded the trust of Arab nations in the US, particularly evident when the US declined to back the UAE against the Yemeni forces following the unmanned aerial vehicle attack on an Emirati fuel depot on January 17, 2022. Biden's lack of action reinforced the perception among the Persian Gulf countries and their allies that the United States is no longer a dependable partner.
However, simultaneously, rather than undertaking any significant reevaluation and genuine adjustment or alteration of Middle Eastern policies, the US government aims to bolster its influence and presence in the region through extensive political, military, and economic backing of authoritarian regimes. Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, addressed the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on May 4, 2023, clarifying the Biden administration's updated priorities for the Middle East. He outlined five new frameworks for US engagement with Middle Eastern countries: "engagement, deterrence, diplomacy, tension reduction, and values integration," constituting a comprehensive manifesto tailored for America's Middle Eastern policies. These policies aim for a "stable," "cohesive," and "successful" Middle East. Despite America's specific interests, which underpin these objectives, largely remaining unarticulated and vaguely referenced, the Biden administration, contrary to assertions, strives to safeguard, foster, and defend democracies against authoritarianism. Authoritarianism ultimately safeguards America's economic objectives from threats or interests posed by Middle Eastern administrations. This dynamic has transformed America's allies and adversaries in the Middle East into a nexus of conflicting interests with the United States.
Political analysts suggest that the interconnected principles of engagement, deterrence, and integration mirror the United States' long-term strategy concerning Middle Eastern nations. These countries are seen as candidates for either integration into Washington's sphere of influence or as adversaries subject to punishment or deterrence.
Sullivan argues that the expansion and enhanced integration of Middle Eastern partners under the Biden administration will "strengthen America's allies and partners and promote regional peace and prosperity." This proposed integration encompasses not only military, economic, and commercial aspects but also the ultimate normalization of relations with the Zionist regime of Israel through the Abraham Accords.
Sullivan underscores the importance of integration, driven by the reduction in "resource demand in the United States" concerning the Middle East. He suggests that increased military integration of America's Middle Eastern partners will foster a sense of security, improved protection, and thus reduce reliance on American military assets. In this context, the Biden administration may consider reducing its troop presence and scaling back demands. Nevertheless, the United States will continue to leverage its power to assist them in ongoing conflicts.
It's essential to highlight that there is no indication that the United States plans to decrease its arms sales to the Middle East. The American defense industry holds significant stakes, and it's challenging for these nations to disentangle themselves from US influence and oversight. Historical data suggests that while Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt expanded their arms acquisitions and trade partnerships by collaborating with China and Russia, they never scaled back their demands from the United States. Instead, they leveraged this diversity to exert reverse pressure on the United States, deepening their reliance on America even further.
Political analysts argue that the reported agreement between Baghdad and Washington for an Iraq withdrawal hasn't altered the Biden administration's stance. The US government remains reluctant to forfeit its enduring interests. America cannot easily abandon access to inexpensive oil, support for Israel's security, and substantial arms sales, which underpin its Middle East presence. These dynamic transforms democracy into a manipulative instrument, turning even wars contrary to American interests into opportunities for increased production in American arms factories and expanded arms exports to Middle Eastern states. Despite these conflicts conflicting with American interests, they indirectly safeguard the economic interests of the United States.
