Alwaght- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is at the end of his political life is hopeful to leave a bright record of himself in the next five years by improving the economic conditions. However, he has a long way ahead. Turkey's economy is now crisis-stricken and the people are bearing the brunt of high living costs. The Turkish lira lost its value against the US dollar and the inflation rate is 50 percent. The reconstruction of the earthquake-hit regions, on the other hand, requires $80 billion in finances, something making Erdogan’s job difficult. In the foreign policy, there are many security cases on the desk of the new government that take thorough efforts to settle. Despite all these crises, experts say, the prospects of Erdogan’s last government are clear and it can settle many of the problems.
To discuss Turkey under the last term of Erdogan's presidency, Alwaght talked to Hassan Lasjerdi, an expert of Turkish affairs.
Alwaght: At present, the biggest challenge of Erdogan’s government is the economic crisis that he promised to solve soon. How likely is settlement of the economic crisis given the changes in the economic team of the government? What are Erdogan's strategies to beat this essential challenge?
Lasjerdi: Settlement of economic problems is not one-dimensional and various elements should work together towards this end. Turkey, like all other countries, has problems that can be overcome by properly understanding them and finding appropriate solutions and building the necessary capacity. For example, national currency boost, the policies the government makes, foreign debts, and investments are among the issues in which right decisions can help soothe the economic crisis and it seems that Erdogan and his team are working on them.
Turkish economy is a function of the regional and world economy, and when the government has good economic relations with regional and international countries, part of the problems of trade, monetary support, and also the problem of investments will be solved and the conditions will improve, but when it adopts a policy contrary to regional atmosphere, as Ankara inflamed tensions in the Syrian crisis, it affects the developments inside Turkey.
Given the atmosphere during the elections, the opposition showed they have a broad base as the votes of Erdogan's challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, were considerable and indicated that he has acceptance among considerable part of the society. So, solving the problems is possible via contribution of various elements and this is possible given the change in the government’s economic team, the approaches, and foreign policy. The most important point about Turkey is overall policies of the Erdogan government; whether his administration will take steps aligned with regional and extra-regional countries or act against them, and these fluctuations will affect national economy.
Concerning the new cabinet, it should be said that appointment of new, young, and experienced figures is useful by itself. In composition of the new cabinet, Erdogan has tried to appoint technocrats to posts. In general, the present Turkey needs more efficient forces. Though the opposition leaders in their election campaign accused Erdogan of isolating the opposition, it seems that the new government is working to reverse this and take advantage of different figures.
Alwaght: Having in mind that in the past years foreign policy has been one of the important challenges of Turkey, what would happen with change of the foreign minister? Will the government continue de-escalation with the region, and also with the West? Basically, what are the main challenges to Erdogan’s foreign policy?
Lasjerdi: Turkey's foreign policy, like other areas, is influenced by the general policies of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), though sometimes it is influenced by Erdogan's personal views. Under Erdogan’s shadow, the ruling party is trying to use the available opportunities. At the same time, it has diverse policies and is trying to prioritize national interests over other matters. Therefore, economic relations, attracting foreign capital, and having balanced relations with other countries are the issues Erdogan's new team is working on.
That what happens on the other side is important in its place. For example, Erdogan made efforts for unity of the Turkic world and expected massive support to the idea, but after years of unveiling his initiative, Turkish economy has not benefited from it. Also, Erdogan's stances concerning Palestinian-Israeli dispute or Iranian-Arab world relations have caused many fluctuations in the Turkish economy as these countries, too, look at the conditions opportunistically. So, in his last term, Erdogan will try to behave logically in foreign policy for his friends to stay in power.
Alwaght: What are the features of the Turkish Century project? Does it meet neo-Ottoman policy of Erdogan?
Lasjerdi: I think that these two strategies are consistent , because if they conflict, the major policies should change and new plans should be announced by the government. For example, concerning neo-Ottomanism, the Turks are interested to create regional convergence and align with themselves various communities and sects with their policies. Turkey seeks to have different cultural, economic and literary symbols as well as prominent people in different regions in order to realize the neo-Ottomanism. The Turks are seeking to paint themselves as a successful role model of governance and with neo-Ottomanist rhetoric, they want to insinuate that they have a long history, a rich and old culture, and political strength in the region. Neo-Ottomanism will move forward with Erdogan's thoughts and he will pursue this program.
Alwaght: At home, Erdogan managed to align with himself the nationalists, but the recent election showed that the society is deeply bipolar and a strong layer of opposition has formed, which makes the government’s job to continue this tough path difficult. What challenges do you think the government will have with the opposition? How will they confront Erdogan's plans?
Lasjerdi: Erdogan has shown in recent years that he is tough in dealing with the opposition. He cracked down on the opposition journalists, military personnel, and politicians and this was his government’s policy. He proved that he can easily eliminate his opponents. Still, he tries to interact with moderate opposition. The important point about recent election is that the opposition force that has formed is significant and Erdogan himself has understood that his rivals are coherent and powerful and cannot be dismissed easily. Therefore, the opposition will have a plan for the next elections and think that Erdogan and the ruling party will have several plans against their rival camp in the municipal and parliamentary elections, either to bring the opposition leaders to their side or to knock them out of the game.
Alwaght: Over the past decade, Iranian-Turkish relations witnessed many lows and highs. At times, they have been good and to some extent helped Iran circumvent the Western sanctions, and at times they were strained. Currently, they are at odds over regional cases like Karabakh dispute. Given these realities, how do you see the prospects of their relations in the last term of Erdogan’s presidency? What are their priorities in their bilateral relations?
Lasjerdi: Regional prospects promise a movement to convergence and cooperation, and especially after Iranian-Saudi détente agreement, the Turkish steps to rapprochement with the Syrian government, Ankara cooperation with the Arab world and China all bear witness to stepping up of interactions. Therefore, under this positive atmosphere of convergence, Iran can work better with Erdogan's new government, rather than differ with it. Having in mind that administration of President Sayyed Ibrahim Raeisi of Iran prioritizes expansion of relations with neighbors in its foreign policy, the two countries will have a high motivation to upgrade their partnership.
