Alwaght- On Monday, Andishe Sazan-e Nour Institute for Strategic Studies hosted a press meeting discussing recent Israeli airstrikes on Syria and also threats to strike Iranian nuclear sites. In the meeting, Saadullah Zaree, the head of the institute and an international affairs expert, elaborated on the topic and answered questions.
Israelis begin threats when they are afraid
Pointing to Israeli terrorist attacks in recent days on Syria’s military sites and residential areas in Kafr Sousa in the southwestern part of the capital Damascus, Mr Zaree said that they are, indeed, not new and the Israelis have repeatedly taken criminal actions against Syria without these actions leaving practical effects on Syria and the region. He also pointed to the recently heightened threats by Benjamin Netanyahu against Iran.
Mr Zaree, who is also an expert of Israeli affairs, pointed to the Israeli measures against Iran over the past years, saying that Iran has undergone several cases of Israeli sabotages including the attack on Karaj and Natanz nuclear facilities and also assassination of Iranian scientists. He went on that these threats are not new and their levels are fully known to Iran. The fact is that the more Tel Aviv feels afraid internally, the more it threatens its periphery. A large part of these threats remains verbal, but part of them goes operational.
According to Mr Zaree, the Israeli internal situation these days is in such a way that Tel Aviv very much needs to threaten its regional environment and even endanger the region so that it can make its enemies rethink actions that are destabilizing to its security. Also, it threatens its environment to block the way of foreign support to Palestinian nation, and pretend to internal public opinion that Tel Aviv is powerful enough to threaten its foes. These are the main reasons behind Netanyahu’s recent threats, Mr Zaree added.
Noting that Iranian experience suggests that the Israelis threaten their rivals only when they sustain defeats, Mr Zaree maintained that they execute part of these threats if they can, otherwise they trumpet them on social media. For example, in August, after several months of propagandaizing the American president’s visit to West Asia, the Israelis understood that there is no serious will in Washington to take on Iran in military and security terms. In reaction, then Prime Minister Yair Lapid unleashed threats against Iranian nuclear sites. The eventual action was limited to a trivial attack in Isfahan sky without damage to nuclear facility. This was the maximal action Lapid could take against Tehran during his term as PM.
Indeed, we should take into consideration the fact that whenever Israelis dealt a blow to Iran, they received more powerful ones in retaliation, including an operation on a military compound in Tel Aviv outskirts. This was just one example of responses to Tel Aviv. Therefore, even if the Israeli decide to implement their game of threats, Tel Aviv will take the most damage and Tehran takes the least.
Barking dogs seldom bite
Referring to the deteriorating Israeli security crisis, Mr Zaree held that Israeli political leaders including President Issac Herzog Netanyahu, and Lapid, as well as security and military officials, have admitted several times that Israel is on the brink. They use this word to refer to internal disputes. On February 13, Lapid warned that Israel will be torn apart in next three months. This was an eerie comment but a reality at the same time about the occupied territories.
The split exists in Netanyahu government, and waves of protests are covering the cities. It had been only two months since Netanyahu took the office, however, polls suggest that if now elections are held, Netanyahu and his Likud party will not secure more than 26 seats and the Netanyahu-led far-right coalition will secure only 55 sears in the Knesset, while rivals get 62 seats. It is noteworthy that the opposition formed government last year but failed to conclude its term and collapsed eventually. Therefore, neither Netanyahu nor rival parties are capable of saving the Israeli regime from collapse, and this means that the Israelis face a fundamental impasse.
According to Mr Zaree, one point about Netanyahu’s threats is that essentially someone who expresses his intentions to do an important action and even reveals its details actually does not want to take any action. The Israeli regime once launched a military operation against Iraq’s nuclear facilities and once against Syria’s facilities, which were claimed to be for nuclear activities. It did not announce them and carried them out secretly. Now, when the Israelis threaten attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are important even for the international community, it means that no action is going to be taken. Actually, a military attack needs secrecy, and the operation makes sense under this secrecy.
Russian support to Syria inadequate
Asked by Alwaght reporter about how he assesses the Russian stance regarding recent Israeli attacks on Damascus outskirts, Mr Zaree maintained that the Russians announced that the Israeli carte blanche in Syria will not be forever and Syria may have to take retaliatory measures. Russia can ward off the Israeli attacks by equipping Syria with air defenses. At the same time, it should provide more supports to Damascus as Moscow operates military bases in Syria. Russian moral responsibility is more than what Moscow has so far done for Syria. Though it has expressed it opposition to the attacks and has taken measures to back the Syrian government, they do not look enough.
Asked why Tel Aviv which always brags about launching attacks on sites belonging to the resistance forces this time targeted residential areas, Mr Zaree replied that the blow Tel Aviv received in the Arabian Sea recently was painful and that is because its economy is sea trade-based and destabilizing its sea routes would be an important development since it would disrupt exports from the occupied territories. And the recent attack on Damascus was out of the ordinary for Netanyahu to tell the opposite side that any threats to the Israeli maritime power and especially commercial ships draws immediate response from Tel Aviv. But this is just a bluff and the Israelis cannot easily use the sea, especially that the sea is in Iran’s vicinity. Indeed, if the Israeli regime wants to sail in the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, it certainly cannot do it easily.
