Alwaght- The world geopolitical and economic crises are increasingly representing a challenge to the developing nations that are not immune to their repercussions. Meanwhile, the Arab countries in West Asia and North Africa in addition to these international challenges are grappling with a litany of economic, political, and security challenges. One remedy prescribed by their leaders in recent years is an effort to consolidate regional partnership to beat these challenges as some of them, like environmental crisis and terrorism, are common woes of these countries.
Driven by these concerns, a five-party meeting on Monday was hosted by the Egyptian Mediterranean city of El-Alamein, gathering together the leaders of Egypt, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan, and Bahrain. The summit is taking place at the invitation of the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to shore up cooperation and coordination among the Arab countries to counter the regional and internal challenges. Economy, energy, politics, and regional security made topics of discussion for the five leaders.
The revival of the Iran nuclear deal, political unrest in Iraq, the agenda of the upcoming meeting of the Arab League, the Palestinian issue, the need to reach a political solution in Syria, and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) were also brought in spotlight, sources familiar with the summit agenda said.
El-Alamein summit, the third step towards 'new Levant'
The Egyptian summit is a sequel to others held in Jordan and Iraq. The first meeting of the group was hosted by Baghdad in July 2021, at the invitation of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi with the presence of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and King Abdullah II of Jordan. The second meeting was held last March with the UAE joining in as the fourth member in the port of Aqaba, Jordan, to upgrade cooperation especially trade and economy. Global and regional issues, especially challenges related to food security, energy, and international trade, were discussed at the Baghdad and Aqaba summits, and at El-Alamein summit, efforts were made to implement the agreements made in earlier summits.
The efforts of these countries to synergize their capabilities and strengthen cooperation come while facing many internal challenges has made the road to achieving the goals of the meetings bumpy. In addition to the security challenge, Iraq is wrestling with a political crisis, and the country's leaders are facing many problems forming a new government. In recent weeks, their differences brought people to streets for protests. Egypt, which was once the leader of the Arabs in the region, has economic problems. Jordan is also struggling with big economic troubles and in recent months witnessed a power struggle within the royal family.
At Baghdad summit, for the first time a project was unveiled whose implementation can bring positive effects to the member states. The project, dubbed 'new Levant', eyes major economic goals in the region. In the new Levant project, described as Arab unity project or a small version of the European Union, Iraq is known as the source of oil, Egypt will provide the manpower to implement the project, and Jordan will be the link between the two. But the implementation of this project is beyond their capabilities, because they do not have the operational capacity for such a project, nor do the have the necessary infrastructures.
Although there is an adequate will to implement Baghdad agreements, they have made no achievements so far. Although al-Kadhimi agreed to sell Iraqi oil to Jordan and Egypt at a lower price than the world rates at the Baghdad meeting, it does not seem he would have a green light from the parliament and the public, and this is just one among other obstacles. The project of transferring oil from Basra to the port of Aqaba is not new and was envisioned under the rule of Iraqi Baathist Party, but oil is now being delivered to Jordan within a framework of preferential pricing via road transportation, and so far no effective steps have been taken to build an oil pipeline.
Transfer of Iraqi oil to Jordan and Egypt is part of US regional goals to cut the geopolitical importance of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf because the American leaders are always worried about closing the Strait of Hormuz to Western oil tankers due to its tensions with Iran and seek to find alternative routes away from Iran's borders, and the new Levant project is one of these measures that Washington has put on its agenda. But some actors in the region do not have a positive opinion about these plans.
One of the serious opponents of this project is Saudi Arabia, which does not want to see Iraq to achieve daily production of 7 million barrels per day and export oil semi-exclusively to Jordan and Egypt, because this target, if reached, will provide a lot of income to Iraq. This is against the wishes of the Saudis, who want a weak Iraq on their northern borders in order to take advantage of its weakness and insecurity in the time of need. The increase in Iraq's oil production, as an OPEC member, is seen a major threat to Saudi Arabia, which is trying to control the regional oil market forever. Therefore, the Saudis will try to disrupt the implementation of such a project, and political and economic pressures on Egypt and Jordan and fueling insecurity in Iraq are the options Riyadh leaders may resort to if they feel a need.
From another perspective, an oil pipeline from Iraq should go a long way and terrorist and piracy threats are likely to cause regular interpretations in its operation. Additionally, the experts argue that the insurance is expensive for its long distance, possibly out of financial power of the related countries.
Under the new Levant project, Egypt seeks to conclude commercial contracts with Iraq and obtain a share of the reconstruction of this country, which is estimated at more than $100 billion for a 10-year period. Egypt is currently struggling with many economic problems and has even begged the Saudis many times to solve its problems. So, Egypt cannot afford to enter such a project. Therefore, it can be said that neither Iraq has the necessary infrastructure to increase its oil production nor Egypt and Jordan have huge funds to invest in this project.
Inviting the UAE and Bahrain to the summit
In the beginning, the summit was tripartite but now it is five-party, signaling that there are economic interests behind its growth in size. Given the fact that at the earlier summits, the main goal was transfer of Iraqi oil to Jordan and Egypt, they need foreign investment. Having in mind that the UAE and Bahrain have huge wealth from their natural gas exports, they make proper investors to finance the Iraqi oil pipeline. Inviting wealthy countries to the summit reveals how Cairo, Baghdad, and Amman are far from being able to finance the project independently and desperately reaching out to others for investment. Still, presence of the UAE and Bahrain cannot help since new Levant plan seeks to bypass the Persian Gulf and cut the dependence on the Arab sheikhdoms. Therefore, the Emiratis will not invest in a plan that prospectively may work against their interests.
