Alwaght- In the last years of the Cold War and while the two superpowers, the US and Soviet Union, were looking quite fed up with flexing muscles for each other, the US President Donald Reagan of and USSR Secretary General Mikhail Gorbachev signed a treaty.
Dubbed Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and signed in 1987, the agreement sought limiting number of the mid-range and long-range ballistic nuclear missiles of the two powers. The accord led to destruction of about 1846 Soviet and 8466 American missiles.
The treaty marked a long step for guaranteeing the two countries' security through scaling down the arms race underway between them since end of the Second World War. No expiration date was set for the treaty.
The years following the Cold War saw the two sides showing adherence to the treaty, still fears of violation by the opposite side made them violate its terms. But to date, it remains standing, and even built good grounds for other accords like the START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) which was signed in 1991 and sought reducing number of both powers' nuclear warheads. The START was extended three times in 2002, 2010, and 2013, with the last updated version named New START.
However, despite the two side's commitment to the terms of the INF, rival now and then accuse each other of violating the treaty's conditions.
INF and current status of two countries' relations
In a very latest complaint by the US, Washington has accused Moscow of breaching terms of the deal by deploying mid-range Iskandar missiles to Kaliningrad, Russia's closest province to the Eastern Europe. The Americans argue that this type of missile violates the range limit, set between 500-5500 in the INF, and that it can be easily armed with nuclear warheads.
Responding to the claims, Russia has denied the American allegations of any treaty violation, saying that it was the US itself that violated the deal by installing missile defense systems in Europe. Moscow asserts that US deployment of MK-41Vertical Launching Systems to Romania capable of firing ballistic missiles is a blatant infringement of the INF terms.
The US up to now declined to publish documents proving the alleged Russian violations, but the Republican lawmakers are severely seeking an effort to persuade Trump to unilaterally quit the treaty.
On the other side, Dmitry Azarov, chairman of Russia's Council of Federation Committee on Defense and Security, has said that the council closely follows measures of the American partners in the Congress, adding that Moscow reached a conclusion about the American moves and will take appropriate steps in response.
The analysts acknowledge that amid already-established tensions between the two powers, challenges to the INF are a new trouble, threatening not only the two parties but also the whole world.
INF and Russia-US relations outlook
From the American side, the claims of Russian INF breach were first made by the New York Times. The allegations are coming while the two rivals have major areas of tension, including the Syrian and Ukrainian crises. The escalation developed to serious levels, especially on Ukraine after the US imposed severe sanctions on Russia. Americans allegation that Russia intervened in US election, has also fueled anti-Russian atmosphere across the US. With these issues overshadowing the two countries' ties, allegations of INF violations will only result in tenser situation.
A couple of conclusions can be made about the US anti-Russian measures: first, American leader's anti-Russia campaign is a political bluff. Based on this theory, the claim of Russia's intervention in the US presidential election in favor of Donald Trump, who showed favor to relations with Moscow during his election campaign, has largely damaged the Republican prestige nationwide. The opposite side, the Democratic Party, is exploring for further evidences of links of Trump team to the Russians.
Post-election Trump is by no means the campaign-time Trump, with his Russia-related stances undergoing apparent reviews, leading to escalation between the two powers. So the Republican pressing on allegations of Russian INF breach can be a political tactic to show that they have no links to Russia. Under this conclusion, the US is far from withdrawing from the strategic treaty, and the issue will not go beyond a simple political game.
The second theory, however, suggests that such moves simply intend to influence Russians. The US snit-Russian measure, including imposing sanctions on Russia, have failed to get Moscow back down on its postures related to the Ukrainian and Syrian conflicts as well as cooperation with Iran, the US arch-foe in West Asia. Washington accuses Moscow of violating INF treaty to press Russia and distract the country's attention from its main points of focus and wrest concessions from it
Even under this theory, the US quitting of the bilateral treaty does not seem likely, and the Congress pro-withdrawal campaign acts as a pressing instrument in the hands of Washington leaders.
The third theory implies that Washington intends to put strains on Moscow's economic, military, and political partners and allies. European economies specifically Germany, falling subject to the Trump attacks, suffer the biggest damage from the anti-Russian sanctions, and threat of further escalation between the two powers even risk more negative influences on Europe. In West Asia region, Russia's allies like Iran and Syria undergo similar pressures. As the tensions between Russia and the US escalate, these countries grow concern over being left along due to the Russian engagement in more other issues. Therefore, this case too, looks like a tactic.
The fourth theory links the US anti-Russian moves to Trump's personality, his unpredictability, and the Republicans' warmongering. In this case, the Republican struggles to get Trump leave the INF is a serious risk. There are evidences that the anti-Russian claims intend to provide pretext for the US to quit the treaty, and so to enable the country to expand its missile systems across Europe.
There is a notion that the Republican-run administration wants to restore the US being the undisputed superpower, something Washington has distanced from during recent years. William Binney, former National Security Agency (NSA) official, now a whistleblower and critic of his employers, has confirmed such a notion and warned that the Republicans' anti-INF measures were dangerous and could lead to global catastrophe.
Withdrawing from INF, the USshould expect Russians' reactions that could lead to a new Cold War. Under this situation, even a direct military conflict is not unlikely, which will lead to "killing of all" as Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned.
