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Analysis

How Row with Europe Works for Erdogan’s Referendum Interests?

Friday 17 March 2017
How Row with Europe Works for Erdogan’s Referendum Interests?

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Alwaght- The tensions between Turkey and some European countries erupted and snowballed after some Turkish officials including the justice and foreign ministers planned to address the rallies of the Turkish nationals in the European countries to promote for the upcoming constitutional reforms referendum, but to their surprise their flights were denied entry to the destination European countries.

Germany was first European country to seriously oppose the Turkish statesmen's referendum tours in Europe. Berlin's approach was then followed by Netherlands, Denmark, and Austria.

A relatively large number of the Turkish nationals are living in the European countries, and their votes are seen to be effective in the referendum and election results.

The key question that keeps presenting itself is that what happened that all of a sudden the European countries like Germany and Netherlands objected to the Turkish officials' speeches and rallies for referendum on their soil.

Some of this European opposition to Ankara leaders' European campaigning stems from the Turkish political conditions that followed the July 2016 military coup which in Europe's viewpoint brought forth a tense political scene in the country. Germany and the fellow European countries that opposed the Turkish measure justified their actions by arguing that the campaign was state-sponsored.

The consequences of the European moves, the analysts note, are analyzable from a series of perspectives. First, the public opinion in Europe and other countries have well understood the sensitivity of this decisive referendum for the Turkish leaders, especially that such a promotional procedure adopted by Ankara leaders is almost rare worldwide. Second, the stances by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other Turkish politicians in reaction to the European campaigning ban have pushed the atmosphere towards a kind of political opportunity for Ankara leaders.

Erdogan accusing Germany and Netherlands of following “Nazist policies” in part came to leverage the Turkish nationalist sentiments in a bid to forge promotional chances that are supposed to draw the pro-reforms votes of the Turkish nationals abroad and at the same time win support for Erdogan's rule at home at a time when opposition voices are rising to disparage the government’s approaches amid its bid for constitutional amendment.

Erdogan has a bright record of seizing the political chances and security threats to obtain his goals on the political stage. The past parliamentary election's runoff, when Erdogan securitized the country’s political climate, is a good example demonstrating his opportunist nature. The recent political escalation with Europe provides him with the chance to secure gains through drawing public backing for the upcoming poll. The political experts argue that the tense rift with the West has come to Erdogan's help, to be used as a campaigning tool for poll gains.

Two points are observable in relation to the outlook of the Turkish-European head-on clash. First, the existing atmosphere is fully sentimental amid the enthusiastic referendum campaign. The Turkish politicians and media go to great lengths to make the best of it to rouse as much pro-reforms crowds as possible. And odds are that the tensions relax when the referendum ends.

Second, it is not expected that the ties of Turkey with Germany, Netherlands, and others of European countries remain as frayed as they are now in the long run. Whereas Turkey now feels humiliated by the recent European postures towards Ankara, it is never interested in hurting its relations with Europe. Turkey needs Europe economically and politically, even if it is critical of the Turkish approaches.

Nevertheless, the tensions in the long term will impact the Turkish-European mutual ties, widen their gaps, and stir the forthright European criticism of Turkey’s domestic political conditions. And quite apparently, it will set up further roadblocks ahead of Turkey’s accession to the European Union.

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Erdogan Turkey Europe Referendum Netherlands

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